Now that the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots have taken care of the Steelers like we all expected on “Thursday Night Football,” Week 14 is officially on our doorstep.
Liz and I had a respectable 4-2 record last week and I’ve been on a small heater over the past two weeks, going a combined 7-0 in Weeks 12 and 13 with a bonus Tyreek Hill anytime TD thrown in last week, so let’s keep the streak rolling and find a few more winners for your bet slip in Week 14.
QB Props
C.J. Stroud OVER 9.5 rushing yards (at Jets)
Liz: Over the NFL draft process, Stroud was billed as a classic pocket passer with little rushing upside. While he’s certainly not Lamar-esque in his mobility, Stroud has flashed as a rusher at times. He ranks inside the top-20 fantasy players at the position in total rushing yards, averaging nearly 12 rushing yards per contest. He’s also gone over the above line in four of his past six games. That figures to remain the case at the Jets this Sunday. New York has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs (23.9 yards/game). With Tank Dell sidelined and Nico Collins likely to be shadowed by Sauce Gardner, Stroud figures to put the squad on his back and run for daylight, easily clearing 9.5 rushing yards Sunday.
WR Props
Jameson Williams OVER 19.5 rushing and receiving yards (at Bears)
Daniel: The Detroit Lions have slowly been finding ways to pull the ball in Jamo’s hands. The explosiveness and efficiency is ridiculous when he gets opportunities, and after scoring on a beautiful 19-yard end around. In fact, over his past three games, which includes a game against the Bears, Jameson Williams has averaged almost 42 yards from scrimmage. That’s well north of the line we’re seeing in Week 14, which is almost assuredly due to the limited opportunities in this offense. If he was seeing 4-to-5 touches per week, we’d have a much higher line. But as it stands, being locked into this Lions team and listening to their coaching staff, they want to find ways to get Jamo more involved and I think we continue to see him making plays this week, which is why I’m taking the OVER on 19.5 rushing and receiving yards. Quick note: As of this writing, the line for the 19.5 receiving yards is -120, the same as 19.5 rushing and receiving, so we’re taking the extra love in case he gets used in the ground game again.
Gabe Davis OVER 40.5 receiving yards (at Chiefs)
Liz: Trusting Davis has proved to be an anxiety inducing venture. He booms. Then he busts. It’s wild. The man has posted two 100+ yard efforts and two doughnuts — all within the past eight weeks. So why am I banking him to hit at least 41 yards? Because he’s managed at least 74 yards in his past two showings against the Chiefs. And also because he’ll be more available to Josh Allen with L’Jarius Sneed shadowing Stefon Diggs on the other side of the field. With a YPR of 15.3, Davis needs only to reel in three balls to hit the over. He can do that much. Let’s hope.
Tyreek Hill OVER 107.5 receiving yards (vs. Titans)
Daniel: Hill is on pace for 2,098 receiving yards over a 17-game season and needs 519 yards over the final five games to make that happen. If you spread that out evenly, he’s looking to average 103.8 yards to hit that magic mark. Here’s why I’m taking the over on a receiving line OVER 100 yards — Mike McDaniel knows what’s at stake and he’s absolutely the kind of coach who is trying to get his guy into the record books. Last week, Tyreek played only 29 of the 61 snaps on offense — less than half, but he didn’t need to play more after putting up a 5-157-2 box score against the Commanders. Even if that happens again this week, look for Tyreek to continue to do Tyreek Hill things. He is the best WR in the game and should be much higher in the MVP convo if you ask me, I’m taking the OVER on 107.5 receiving yards on MNF.
Justin Jefferson OVER 5.5 receptions (at Raiders)
Daniel: One more receiver prop here: In his first game back from an eight-week absence, Jefferson will have Joshua Dobbs controlling the offense rather than his usual QB Kirk Cousins. In fact, Mike Clay shared on Fantasy Focus on Friday that Jefferson has had only two QBs throw him the ball in his NFL career: Kirk Cousins (517 attempts) and Sean Mannion (12 attempts). Needless to say, we’re in uncharted territory with Jefferson this week, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism. First, after talking with Stephania Bell, I feel confident that JJetta is fully healthy and should be a full-go this week. No reason to think he’ll take it slow with his return since he took eight full weeks off and was adamant that he wouldn’t return until he truly was 100 percent. On top of that, over the first eight weeks, Hollywood Brown was WR11 in targets with Dobbs as his QB. This team is in the playoff hunt and needs its superstar to light a fire under this offense. Look for Dobbs to find Jefferson early and often as they fight to stay in the playoff hunt. I’m taking the OVER on 5.5 receptions.
TE Props
Dallas Goedert OVER 34.5 receiving yards (at Cowboys)
Liz: After being sidelined for three games, Goedert has been cleared to suit up at Dallas. The last time he faced off against the Cowboys, Goedert converted three of four looks for 50 yards. Dallas has given up the fifth-most scores to opposing tight ends (6), but has been solid versus the position in terms of yardage allowed (43.9 yards/game). Still, Goedert isn’t your average tight end. He’s gone over the above line in six of eight games from Weeks 2 through 9. He also figures to be heavily utilized in what’s projected to be a high-scoring game (51.5) with significant postseason implications.
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