2023 NFL Playoff Scenarios: Who’s in, tiebreakers, clinching scenarios after Week 15

FOX Sports

Just three weeks remain in the NFL’s regular season. A handful of teams have already secured a spot in the postseason, while plenty of playoff berths and seeding remain to be decided.

Here’s how the AFC and NFC playoff races are shaping up after Week 15 (pending Philadelphia’s game against Seattle):

AFC DIVISION LEADERS

West: Kansas City (9-5) is currently two games ahead of Denver (7-7) for the division lead, and will clinch the division next week if they win AND the Broncos lose.
East: Miami (10-4) is currently two games ahead of Buffalo (8-6) for the division lead, and will clinch the division next week if they win AND the Bills lose.
South: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston are each tied at 8-6 but Jacksonville owns the head-to-head over Indianapolis and is ahead of Houston on tiebreakers despite the two splitting the series; none of the three teams can clinch the division next week.
North: Baltimore (11-3) is currently two games ahead of Cleveland (9-5) for the division lead, and has already clinched a playoff spot; the Ravens will clinch the division next week if they win AND the Browns lose.

AFC WILD CARD

Cleveland is currently in the first wild-card spot at 9-5, with three AFC games remaining on their schedule; the Browns can still mathematically win their division as well.
Cincinnati is currently in the second wild card at spot at 8-6; the Bengals cannot win their division as they are 0-4 against AFC North opponents.*The Bengals are ahead of both the Colts and Bills due to owning the head-to-head result over both of those teams
Indianapolis is currently in the third wild card spot at 8-6; the Colts can still win their division but would have to finish with a better record than Jacksonville, as they lost both head-to-head matchups against them*The Colts are ahead of the Texans due to owning the head-to-head result against them, and are ahead of the Bills based on conference record
Houston (8-6), Buffalo (8-6), Pittsburgh (7-7), and Denver (7-7) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild card spot*The Texans are ahead of the Bills due to better conference record*The Steelers are ahead of the Broncos due to better conference record
Tennessee, New York, and New England have been eliminated from playoff contention

AFC NO. 1 SEED

Baltimore is currently in sole possession of the No. 1 seed at 11-3, and owns the head-to-head over Jacksonville; the Ravens play Miami in Week 17 and have not/do not play Kansas City this season (therefore tiebreakers would be used if the two finished at the top of the conference).
Miami is currently the No. 2 seed at 10-4, and plays Baltimore in Week 17.
Kansas City is currently the No. 3 seed at 9-5, but is mathematically still able to obtain the one seed if Baltimore and Miami each do not win out.

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NFC DIVISION LEADERS

West: San Francisco (11-3) has clinched the division
East: Philadelphia (10-3) currently has a half-game lead over the Cowboys and has already clinched a playoff spot regardless if they win the division; the two split the head-to-head and therefore tiebreakers would come into play if they finish with the same record.
South: Tampa Bay and New Orleans are tied at the top of the division at 7-7, but the Buccaneers currently own the tiebreaker having beaten the Saints in Week 4; the two play again in Week 17.
North: Detroit (10-4) will win the division with a win against the Vikings in either of its Week 16 or 18 matchups; the Lions also will clinch a playoff spot if Seattle loses or ties against Philadelphia on Monday.

NFC WILD CARD

Dallas (10-4) has clinched a playoff berth regardless of whether the Cowboys win the division, and will at worst be a wild-card participant (can still win their division as mentioned above).
Minnesota is currently the second wild card participant at 7-7; the Vikings can win the division if they win out (play the Lions twice and the Packers once in their last three games)*The Vikings are ahead of the Rams and the Saints due to better conference record
Los Angeles is currently the third wild card participant at 7-7; their last three games are all against NFC opponents (New Orleans, New York, San Francisco)*The Rams are ahead of the Saints due to better conference record
New Orleans (7-7), Seattle (6-7), Atlanta (6-8), and Green Bay (6-8) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild card spot*The Falcons are ahead of the Packers due to a better conference record
Washington, Arizona, and Carolina have been eliminated from playoff contention

NFC NO. 1 SEED

San Francisco is currently in sole possession of the No. 1 seed at 11-3, and the 49ers own head-to-head tiebreakers over Dallas (10-4) and Philadelphia (10-3).
Philadelphia is currently the No. 2 seed behind San Francisco, but still has yet to play its Week 15 matchup against Seattle (also lost to San Francisco this season).
Detroit is currently the No. 3 seed, but does not play San Francisco this season — so tiebreakers would be used if they each finished tied at the top of the conference.

Tiebreakers (two clubs)

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Tiebreakers (three or more clubs)

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of three-club format.)

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss