NFL Week 14 is here, and just like last weekend, the game of the week will feature the Philadelphia Eagles.
In a powerhouse battle for control of the NFC East, the Cowboys will play host to Jalen Hurts & Co.
The Eagles won the first meeting 28-23 and have seemingly had the best record in the conference all season. However, they are reeling after last week’s poor showing against the San Francisco 49ers.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won four straight since their loss in the City of Brotherly Love, and they are out to prove that they can take down one of the league’s best.
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Elsewhere on my docket we have the Dolphins, Lions and Bears. Oh my!
If you follow me in this space, you know I went 4-2 last week, bringing my overall record this season to 42-27-1.
Let’s keep this thing rolling!
Without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 14.
All times ET
Titans @ Dolphins (8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN)
One of the tried and true bets this season has been Miami as a favorite.
They’re 7-1 ATS when favored, with the only non-cover being against Las Vegas coming out of the bye. They dominated that game, not punting for the first three quarters, and rang up 422 yards with 6.2 YPP. They had a turnover on downs inside the Las Vegas 5-yard line and three turnovers on their half of the field (leading to six Raiders points).
The Dolphins have won this season by 50, 30, 21 (twice!), 15 and 14. Their offense is a machine, and the defense is rapidly improving.
Expect Vic Fangio’s defense to pester and rattle rookie Will Levis, especially if he doesn’t have Derrick Henry (concussion).
PICK: Dolphins (-13) to win by more than 13 points
Jaguars @ Browns (1 p.m., CBS)
The Jaguars are coming off a brutal MNF loss at home to lowly Cincinnati, a game where they lost their QB, their backup LT, and WR Christian Kirk.
This is all very, very bad as they head into Cleveland, where the Browns defense has been extraordinary. They’re also expected to get top cornerback Denzel Ward back.
If Trevor Lawrence miraculously plays after suffering the high-ankle sprain, I got a bad number, but I don’t think he’ll hold up behind that offensive line in Cleveland.
PICK: Browns (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Do Brock Purdy, 49ers have a TOUGH matchup against Geno Smith, Seahawks?
Seahawks @ 49ers (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This carries a lot of risk, as one team is trending extremely poorly, with Seattle having lost three straight and four of five.
The other is overwhelmingly the best team in the NFL.
The 49ers have dominated the Seahawks, winning four straight against them by 18, 18, 8 and 20. There’s no question they are the vastly better team.
But it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a pullback after the big win over the Eagles and the 49ers wanting to perhaps rest starters in the fourth quarter if they’re up 17 points. The back door should be open for Seattle.
This number was at 12.5 points and was bet down to 10.5.
PICK: Seahawks (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)
Playoffs are on the line in Week 14 for the Buffalo Bills
Lions @ Bears (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Early in the week, the weather was thought to impact this game, but now the snow and rain will arrive a day early. But it’ll still be cold, in the low 30s or high 20s.
Jared Goff has struggled outdoors in December and January, going 8-13 in his career. He went 2-1 in those spots last year, with the defense holding the Green Bay Packers to 16 and the New York Jets to 17.
Of late, the defense has been a liability, giving up 28, 29, 26 and 38 points. Aidan Hutchinson only has one sack in the last seven games.
We hit this game a few weeks ago and also nearly cashed a moneyline ticket.
One big talking point was that the Lions struggled with running QBs, and Justin Fields rushed for 104 yards in that meeting.
PICK: Bears (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Buccaneers @ Falcons (1 p.m., CBS)
Sides and teasers have been great here all season, but I’ve struggled with totals. So let me dip back in for a game with — wait for it — playoff ramifications!
In the team’s first meeting, the Falcons went up and down the field before Desmond Ridder vomited up the ball in the red zone multiple times in a 16-13 win. There were 700+ yards of offense, but the Falcons went 1-for-5 in the red zone. Tampa was fortunate, getting six first downs via penalty.
Sure, maybe Atlanta settles for field goals out of caution, and this ends up 19-17 or something gross, but we should see points.
The Falcons’ secondary isn’t 100%, and the Bucs defense could have three starters out due to injury.
PICK: Over 40.5 points scored by both teams combined
Will Dak Prescott, Cowboys continue hot streak at home on SNF vs. Eagles?
Eagles @ Cowboys (8:20 p.m., NBC)
I took this as my first bet of the week Sunday night when Dallas was -3. It was bet up to -3.5 and has sat there all week.
One way to look at the key number of 3: If the line is at -2.5, the big, smart money does not like the favorite enough to bet. Because if they did, it would bump up to 3, the number by which most games are decided.
If the line goes to -3.5, it means the big, smart money doesn’t like the underdog, or they’d take the hook.
The Eagles are 10-2, but the underlying metrics in the last five games are horrible. They’ve been outgained by 100+ yards in all of them! And the pass-happy Dallas offense should torch this secondary.
The Eagles will lose here, but it sets up a great buying opportunity for them next week.
PICK: Cowboys (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
Eagles are underdogs vs. Cowboys: best bets, picks and predictions
2-team 7-point TEASER
Buffalo +8.5, Baltimore -.5
Buffalo +1.5 to +8.5
Weirdly, the Bills have won the last two regular season games in Arrowhead. They’re finally healthy, coming off a late-season bye, with TE Dalton Knox and DBs Dane Jackson and Taylor Rapp returning.
Also, it’s worth noting that Sean McDermott is 6-0 off the bye as Bills coach.
The Chiefs continue to sputter on offense, as they are eighth in the NFL in yards per play (5.6) after leading the NFL in that category the last two years.
Teasing the Bills up beyond a touchdown gives some protection against all the trends you’ll see about Andy Reid in December with Patrick Mahomes (16-1) and Mahomes at 5-0 against the spread coming off a loss.
Baltimore -7.5 to -.5
This game may be severely impacted by weather, as rain and wind are expected, which could hamper Matt Stafford’s effectiveness through the air.
The Rams are 6-6, having swept Seattle and Arizona, and the other two wins came against Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco.
The Ravens, off a bye, just need to win to continue their march to the top seed in the AFC.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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