College football bowl season is in full swing, and we are closing in on the College Football Playoff National Championship game. What is the best way to play the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines and the Sugar Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies? Who will advance? What are the best futures?
Matt Miller and Kevin Pulsifer offer their thoughts and betting tips for the New Year’s Six games and more.
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Heading into the bowl season’s marquee games, what is your top pick to make in any of the New Year’s Six games?
Miller: Alabama +1.5. Picking the Crimson Tide to cover after watching them dismantle Georgia is the easiest pick of the games. In fact, I think Alabama wins by at least one score thanks to a punishing defense the likes of which Michigan has not seen this year.
Pulsifer: Sportsbooks aren’t moving the line far enough in the Georgia Bulldogs–Florida State Seminoles game. The Bulldogs lost one game all season, to an Alabama team that finally put it all together. They’re largely healthy and not dealing with opt-outs. Meanwhile, FSU is down over 20 players and its depth chart is barren. The projected starting QB had zero passing TDs and went 8-for-21 for 55 yards against Louisville. The Seminoles’ top running back has played 43 snaps all season, and their six-man wide receiver room has combined for 23 catches all year, with none of them going for 10 catches or 100 yards this season.
Florida State put up 16 points and went 2-for-16 on third down with a much better roster and actual motivation against an inferior opponent. Now the players have quit on the team, and the school has quit on the ACC. How is the implied team total 13 points in this spot? Hammer Georgia on the spread (-19 at -110) and maybe sprinkle some on the alternate line at -26.5.
Is there an upset pick you like for this weekend?
Miller: Other than Alabama over Michigan? Give me the Wisconsin Badgers (+10.5) to cover against the LSU Tigers. The Tigers will be without Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels in this one, and I think that could be the difference. I won’t go so far as to pick Wisconsin to win, but a cover is realistic.
Pulsifer: I’ll go with the Ole Miss Rebels here over the Penn State Nittany Lions in a battle between two-loss teams who lost only to elite teams (you could argue that Georgia, Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State are the four best teams in the country, but that’s for another day). If you’re dissecting these two squads, I think it’s pretty clear that Ole Miss and Jaxson Dart have the better offense, while the Nittany Lions have the better defense, but Penn State is now down a defensive coordinator after Manny Diaz left for the Duke job. That could lead to some miscommunications, especially against a dual-threat QB such as Dart. Pick: Ole Miss +4.5 (-110) or Ole Miss ML (+170).
2:31
The numbers behind Texas and Washington’s CFP matchup
Bill Connelly goes in-depth on the matchup between Texas and Washington as the two teams prepare for the Sugar Bowl.
What game do you want no part of betting?
Miller: Texas vs. Washington. I go back and forth on this game daily thinking about the great matchups at multiple levels on offense and defense for each team. Texas’ offensive firepower vs. Washington’s offensive firepower will make for a very fun game. Which young secondary will step up, though? That’s why I’m not touching this one.
Pulsifer: I have no idea what to do with the Oregon Ducks–Liberty Flames game. Oregon is clearly the better team, but how motivated will the Ducks be? Liberty didn’t play a single Power 5 opponent in 2023, but last season the Flames beat Arkansas and lost by one to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest with the same QB they have now. Liberty’s defense was suspect against the literal worst-ranked strength of schedule in all of FBS — the Flames didn’t face a single top-80 FPI team — so, if forced to pick, I’d probably parlay an alternate spread and alternate team total (i.e. Oregon -12.5 and Oregon team total over 37.5, if you can get that close to -110) … but I’m staying far away from the spread and total.
Which team is your favorite play to win the CFP championship at current odds (Michigan +185, Alabama +200, Texas +250, Washington +750)?
Miller: I’ll go Alabama. The defense doesn’t get enough love, as we all obsess over offensive football. But let’s be real — Michigan hasn’t wowed anyone offensively, and Alabama has more defensive talent (four potential NFL first-rounders) and a better scheme than anyone in the nation. Giving Nick Saban a month to prepare for your offense is a bad idea.
Pulsifer: I’m with Matt here. Alabama improved drastically throughout the season, so it feels wrong to rely on season-long numbers. We also have a history of Jim Harbaugh-led teams playing worse after time off and Saban-led teams playing much better with extra time to prepare. The Wolverines’ offense isn’t dynamic enough to thrive in this matchup. As for an exacta, I’ve been picking against Washington all year, and it keeps proving me wrong. The Longhorns are buoyed by their big win, but they played a lot of too-close-for-comfort games (against Kansas State, TCU, Houston, Iowa State). It wouldn’t shock me to see Michael Penix Jr. continue the Huskies’ magical season into a CFP Championship Game berth. Pick: Alabama (+200), sprinkle on Alabama over Washington (+650).
Final thoughts: What is your top tip, fact or piece of advice you’d like to impart for anyone considering making a bowl bet?
Miller: Check the player opt-outs before you bet! Teams like Oregon are largely intact while others, like Florida State, have been rocked by opt-outs, transfers and NFL draft declarations. Don’t just check the odds; check the lineups too.
Pulsifer: Don’t be afraid to pick the underdog to win outright. I went 5-5 in my picks article last weekend, but the four underdogs I picked all won outright by 7-plus points. We always know that bowl games are volatile with the unknowns of transfers/opt-outs/etc., so while the spread might be the “average” result, it’s more likely the final score will stray from the norm in both directions. You can get great odds on the alternate spreads by actually laying points with underdogs.
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