Falcons lean on surging defense as Bucs loom in divisional showdown

Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

When the Falcons held off the Jets for a 13-8 win Sunday, it marked the fourth time this season Atlanta has won while holding an opponent to 15 points or fewer, as many such victories as the team totaled in the previous three years combined.

It didn’t look like Atlanta’s defense could stay an elite unit when defensive lineman Grady Jarrett was lost to a season-ending knee injury in late October, setting up a three-game losing streak in which the Falcons gave up an average of 28 points. But after the team’s Week 11 bye, the defense has returned anew, not allowing any touchdowns in wins over the Saints and Jets.

“Their defense is playing very well, playing like a top-five defense in the league right now,” said Bucs coach Todd Bowles, whose team travels to Atlanta this week and was held to 13 points in a loss to the Falcons in October.

The last time Atlanta’s defense ranked in the top 10 in points and yards allowed was their last playoff appearance, in 2017, and the last time before that was 1998, when the Falcons went to the Super Bowl for the first time. Their offense has been inconsistent with quarterback Desmond Ridder, but their defense has been good enough to put them in first place in the NFC South.

“We have a big, physical defensive line, and they’re playing well together,” said Falcons coach Arthur Smith, who can match his win total from each of his first two seasons with a win on Sunday.

The Falcons have become one of the league’s best defenses in two areas where games can be won and lost: They’re the NFL’s best defense in the red zone, allowing conversions just 37% of the time, and they rank second on third down, allowing opponents to move the chains just 33% of the time.

The improvement is a strong endorsement for first-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who was hired away from the Saints this offseason to replace the retiring Dean Pees. Atlanta is also the NFL’s most improved team in piling up sacks — the Falcons have already exceeded their total from all of last season by five, with 26 now. By no coincidence, the Saints have had the biggest dropoff in sacks from last year, going from 48 with Nielsen on their staff last year to just 19 without him.

“The D-coordinator is doing a great job,” Bowles said of Nielsen. “They got pieces this offseason, but they have a scheme that works for them that he’s brought over from New Orleans. They’re very aggressive and they’re playing tough.”

Nielsen brought three players from New Orleans to Atlanta: linebacker Kaden Elliss and defensive tackles David Onyemata and Kentavius Street. Elliss ranks second on the team in tackles, and Onyemata has been a central part of the run defense, especially in Jarrett’s absence.

“David is as good as anybody,” Smith said Monday. “It will never show up in the stat sheet. I don’t know what his advanced grades are from the outside, but I know this: You ask any coach or player in this league, that guy is a real dude inside. Kentavius Street has done a really nice job. Those are the underrated moves because we have a lot of confidence.”

Veteran Calais Campbell has continued to make plays at age 36 on the defensive line, but the biggest addition has been safety Jessie Bates, who has two interceptions and a forced fumble in Atlanta’s last two wins. He’s the only player in the NFL with five interceptions and four forced fumbles, making a strong case for Pro Bowl if not All-Pro honors.

Jessie Bates: “It’s a special unit that we have”

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The red-zone defense will be especially important Sunday against the Bucs. Atlanta held Tampa Bay to an 0-for-2 showing in the first meeting, and in those four wins holding opponents to 15 points or fewer, the Falcons have held those teams to one touchdown in 10 red-zone trips. The Bucs have struggled offensively in the red zone, ranking 27th in conversions there, so that matchup pits a strength of Atlanta’s against a weak spot for Tampa Bay.

The Bucs are treating Sunday like a playoff game, as well they should. If Tampa Bay wins, they would move into first place in the division, with a tiebreaker advantage on the Falcons with four games to play. If Atlanta wins, the Bucs would be two games back and lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Falcons, meaning they’d have to win three games more than Atlanta does in the final four weeks of the season.

The New York Times’ playoff simulator currently gives the Falcons a 61% chance to win the NFC South, with the Bucs trailing at 22%. If the Bucs win Sunday, they vault to a 46% chance, with the Falcons dropping to 31%; if the Falcons win, their odds increase to 83%.

“Tampa, we have a lot of respect for them,” Smith said. “It’s just like a lot of teams they’re dealing with some injuries. We’ll have to see who they have up, but they will be ready to go. They will have a great plan as they always do, and we know each other so well, but it’s a big game.”

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.