While the NFL MVP debate revolves around a septet of quarterbacks, fantasy football’s most valuable player might well be its top-picked running back from the preseason, the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey.
As the fantasy playoffs dawn, McCaffrey finds himself on a league-leading 72.8% of playoff teams in ESPN leagues, making him the ultimate peak-return-on-your-first-round investment this season.
Consider McCaffrey’s statistical accolades: He is second among all players with 311.4 PPR fantasy points, 74 more than the No. 2 running back. That puts him on pace for the 11th-best single-season total by a running back in history. McCaffrey has also delivered a top-25 positional score in all 13 49ers games, the only player in the league to have “earned your start” (top-10 QB, TE, kicker or D/ST, or top-25 RB or WR) in more than 11 weeks this season. In fact, he has never finished lower than 17th in scoring among running backs in any week, and has been seventh or better in 10 weeks.
Beyond McCaffrey, it’s the wide receivers who have apparently been most responsible for steering their fantasy teams into the playoffs.
Tyreek Hill unsurprisingly leads the way. He is the No. 1 scorer in our game with 322.7 points, putting him on pace for 422.0, which would be the eighth-highest total ever (and second best among wide receivers). Hill has finished the week as a top-five scorer among WRs an astonishing nine times through 13 games, two more than McCaffrey has at running back. Hill was the only other player found on more than 70% of ESPN playoff teams (70.3%).
The next three wide receivers in fantasy scoring thus far — albeit in a different order in their playoff-team percentages — joined Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (62.1%) in rounding out the top six. The Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (68.0%), third in scoring at WR (278.86), was the third most-common name on playoff rosters. The Dallas Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb, the No. 2 WR in scoring (283.7), and Philadelphia Eagles’ A.J. Brown, who ranks fourth (255.8), are on 65.0% and 61.5% of playoff teams, respectively.
Listed below are the 50 players who found themselves on a playoff team in the greatest percentage of ESPN leagues. Included are their preseason ADPs (average draft position) as well as year-to-date totals in PPR scoring.
% OF TEAMS — PLAYER, POS., TEAM — ADP, 2023 PPR FPTS
72.8% — Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers — ADP: 4.3, 311.40 FPTS
70.3% — Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins — ADP: 6.3, 322.70 FPTS
68.0% — Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers — ADP: 42.5, 278.86 FPTS
65.0% — CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys — ADP: 16.6, 283.70 FPTS
62.1% — Josh Allen, QB, Bills — ADP: 21.0, 307.28 FPTS
61.5% — A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles — ADP: 19.9, 255.80 FPTS
61.3% — Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles — ADP: 22.8, 291.68 FPTS
60.5% — T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings — ADP: 45.9, 196.90 FPTS
60.5% — Kyren Williams, RB, Rams — ADP: Undrafted, 184.00 FPTS
60.4% — Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions — ADP: 165.5, 176.60 FPTS
59.4% — Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints — ADP: 56.7, 201.60 FPTS
59.2% — Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars — ADP: 30.1, 226.90 FPTS
59.5% — Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys — ADP: 169.7, 148.00 FPTS
59.0% — Puka Nacua, WR, Rams — ADP: Undrafted, 222.40 FPTS
58.5% — Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins — ADP: 123.3, 237.40 FPTS
57.5% — Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions — ADP: 21.0, 228.60 FPTS
57.5% — Cowboys D/ST, D/ST, Cowboys — ADP: 115.9, 153.00 FPTS
55.4% — Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills — ADP: 11.4, 234.30 FPTS
54.0% — C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans — ADP: 169.0, 242.54 FPTS
53.0% — George Kittle, TE, 49ers — ADP: 56.3, 170.30 FPTS
52.4% — Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers — ADP: 71.9, 224.00 FPTS
51.9% — Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs — ADP: 6.5, 197.60 FPTS
51.7% — Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers — ADP: 35.8, 189.00 FPTS
51.7% — Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens — ADP: 32.4, 253.76 FPTS
51.7% — De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins — ADP: 166.3, 140.60 FPTS
51.6% — Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys — ADP: 98.5, 272.70 FPTS
51.5% — Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals — ADP: 23.3, 199.50 FPTS
51.1% — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals — ADP: 3.0, 239.32 FPTS
50.8% — Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders — ADP: 19.1, 181.10 FPTS
50.7% — Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions — ADP: 34.0, 179.00 FPTS
49.8% — Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys — ADP: 15.0, 187.10 FPTS
49.6% — DJ Moore, WR, Bears — ADP: 60.7, 231.20 FPTS
49.1% — Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks — ADP: 56.0, 147.00 FPTS
48.3% — D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles — ADP: 97.4, 167.00 FPTS
48.1% — Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers — ADP: 46.1, 234.16 FPTS
48.1% — Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers — ADP: 83.1, 195.30 FPTS
47.7% — Derrick Henry, RB, Titans — ADP: 11.2, 194.78 FPTS
47.2% — Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings — ADP: 1.5, 113.80 FPTS
47.4% — Justin Tucker, K, Ravens — ADP: 87.4, 115.00 FPTS
47.0% — Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants — ADP: 11.1, 165.60 FPTS
47.1% — Jake Elliott, K, Eagles — ADP: 139.7, 121.00 FPTS
46.4% — Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs — ADP: 78.3, 173.80 FPTS
46.4% — Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs — ADP: 14.3, 235.82 FPTS
46.3% — Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers — ADP: 58.0, 204.40 FPTS
46.3% — Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars — ADP: 86.0, 170.10 FPTS
46.3% — Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts — ADP: 97.6, 221.40 FPTS
46.2% — Chris Olave, WR, Saints — ADP: 30.2, 187.80 FPTS
46.2% — Breece Hall, RB, Jets — ADP: 55.7, 188.00 FPTS
46.1% — Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers — ADP: 162.0, 249.92 FPTS
45.7% — Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills — ADP: 138.9, 120.50 FPTS
Takeaways
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Those six big names leading the way showed that for this season, at least, getting the most out of your first two picks was critical. In fact, of the 30 players who reside on playoff rosters in at least 50% of ESPN leagues, 12 were selected among the first 25 picks on average, 17 were selected among the top 40 and 19 were selected among the top 50 picks.
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Conversely, among the more disappointing players — excluding unexpected, long-term injury examples like Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb — No. 4 pick Austin Ekeler is on playoff teams in only 44.4% of leagues, No. 7 pick Davante Adams’ rate is 43.3%, No. 16 pick Cooper Kupp’s is 38.1% and No. 17 pick Garrett Wilson’s rate is 42.4%.
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Waiver-wire gems did make a difference for many teams. Particularly, a pair of Kupp’s teammates, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua. Williams, on an absolute tear since returning from his ankle injury (72.9 PPR fantasy points the past three weeks alone), is the No. 2 running back found on ESPN playoff teams (60.5%). Nacua, who rewrote history with his out-of-nowhere, massive start to the season, is on playoff rosters in 59.0%.
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As for the other big-time waiver-wire gem? It’s a kicker, Dallas Cowboys rookie Brandon Aubrey, the position’s top scorer with 148 fantasy points (a 12-point margin on the rest of the field).
Ah, but now things get interesting, as Hill faces one of the toughest stretches on his entire 2023 schedule (NYJ, DAL, @BAL the next three weeks); Allen has to forge ahead with Easton Stick as his quarterback, following Justin Herbert‘s season-ending finger injury; and the No. 7 name on the above list, Jalen Hurts, aims to rebound from what has been a disappointing recent stretch. Can this trio, as well as the other names above that got you into the playoffs, help you capture a league title?
We’ll check back for an update in two weeks, once ESPN finalists are known. Best of luck to those of you who have advanced this far!
