The Miami Dolphins (9-3) will be trying to extend a three-game winning streak against the Tennessee Titans (4-8). The Dolphins are heavy 13-point favorites.
The Dolphins easily dismantled the Washington Commanders 45-10 in Week 13, while the Titans were outpointed 31-28 by the Indianapolis Colts in their game.
Can the Dolphins move into a two-way tie for first in the AFC with a win?
Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Titans and Dolphins — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill.
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| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -13 | -112 | -108 | 46.5 | -108 | -112 |
Dolphins vs. Titans Prediction & Pick
- Pick ATS: Miami (-13)
- Pick OU: Over (46.5)
- Prediction: Miami 30 – Tennessee 16
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill
The Titans rank 27th in the league allowing over 7 yards per pass attempt.
That does not bode well for a trip to Miami to face a Dolphins team averaging over 38 points per game at home.
The Dolphins still have to prove to some that they can beat a good team, but that’s not something they have to worry about tonight.
Miami should score plenty. I don’t like laying 14, but I love betting on their elite offense to go over 30.5.
PICK: Dolphins TT Over 30.5
How to Watch Miami vs. Tennessee
- Game Date: Monday, December 11, 2023
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
- TV: Watch on ESPN
Dolphins vs. Titans Recent Matchups
- Miami owns a 3-2 record against Tennessee in their last five matchups.
- Over their last five head-to-head contests, Tennessee has racked up 107 points, while Miami has posted 101.
Miami Betting Info
- Against the spread, Miami is 8-4-0 this year.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread twice when favored by 13 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
- Miami contests this year have gone over the point total 58.3% of the time (seven times in 12 games with a set point total).
- The Dolphins have won each of the eight games they were favored on the moneyline this season.
- Miami has played as a moneyline favorite of -850 or shorter in only two games this season, and it won both.
- Looking at this matchup’s moneyline, the Dolphins’ implied win probability is 89.5%.
Dolphins Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 285.1 (3,421) | 1 |
| Rush yards | 143.3 (1,720) | 2 |
| Points scored | 32 (384) | 2 |
| Pass yards against | 203.6 (2,443) | 9 |
| Rush yards against | 96.6 (1,159) | 8 |
| Points allowed | 22.2 (266) | 21 |
Miami’s Key Players
Offense
- Tyreek Hill’s 1,481 receiving yards this season (first in the NFL) have come from 93 receptions (second in the NFL) on 127 targets. He’s averaging 7.8 catches and 123.4 yards per game, with 12 receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,457 yards (third in the NFL), 24 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He averages 288.1 yards per game and 8.6 per attempt, while completing 70.1%.
- Raheem Mostert has 828 rushing yards (third in the NFL) with 14 touchdowns (69 yards per game through 12 games).
- Mostert has 21 catches, 166 yards and two TDs in the passing game.
- In the ground game, Devon Achane averages 9.5 yards per attempt and 89 yards per game for 534 total rushing yards. He has scored seven rushing touchdowns this season.
- He’s added 13 catches (on 16 targets) for 101 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.8 receiving yards and 2.2 receptions per game.
Defense
- On the defensive side for the Dolphins, Bradley Chubb has put up 52 tackles, seven TFL, and 6.5 sacks in 2023.
- Christian Wilkins has 45 tackles, eight TFL, and 6.5 sacks this season.
- Andrew Van Ginkel has collected 47 tackles, seven TFL, four sacks, and one interception this year.
- Jevon Holland has three TFL, 69 tackles, and one interception this year.
Tennessee Betting Info
- Tennessee has covered the spread five times over 12 games with a set total.
- Games involving Tennessee have hit the over on four occasions this year.
- This season, the Titans have won three out of the 10 games in which they’ve been the underdog.
- Tennessee has not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +575 odds on them winning this game.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 14.8% chance of a victory for the Titans.
Titans Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 183.2 (2,198) | 27 |
| Rush yards | 108.9 (1,307) | 17 |
| Points scored | 17.8 (213) | 26 |
| Pass yards against | 230.8 (2,770) | 22 |
| Rush yards against | 106.2 (1,274) | 13 |
| Points allowed | 21.3 (255) | 16 |
Tennessee’s Key Players
Offense
- Derrick Henry has rushed for eight touchdowns this year, and has accumulated 841 total rushing yards (70.1 per game and 4.3 per carry).
- Henry has also been a part of the passing attack with 185 yards (15.4 per game) on 22 receptions (1.8 per game), while being targeted 28 times. He is still looking for his first receiving touchdown.
- DeAndre Hopkins has put together a 2023 stat sheet that includes 50 catches for 774 yards and five receiving touchdowns over 12 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 95 targets and is averaging 4.2 receptions per game.
- In six games this season, Will Levis has racked up 1,266 passing yards, while throwing seven touchdowns against two interceptions and completing 57.8% of his passes.
- Tyjae Spears has scored one touchdown on the ground, while running for 329 total yards (5 per attempt and 27.4 per game).
- Spears also has 192 receiving yards (16 per game) on 33 catches (2.8 per game). He has been targeted 46 times while he is still seeking his first receiving touchdown.
Defense
- Azeez Al-Shaair’s 2023 effort includes 114 tackles, four TFL, and two sacks through 12 games. He leads the Titans and is eighth in the NFL in tackles.
- Denico Autry has registered nine sacks in addition to his 10 TFL and 38 tackles over 12 games.
- Amani Hooker has intercepted one pass on top of 67 tackles, three TFL, and six passes defended during the 2023 campaign.
- Jeffery Simmons has 44 tackles, 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
Nick’s Picks: Texans end Broncos streak, underdog Eagles are ‘must-bet’ in Week 13 | What’s Wright?
Nick Wright reveals his Week 13 picks, including the Houston Texans (-3.5) ending the Denver Broncos’ five-game win streak, the Tampa Bay Bucs (-5) defeating a messy Carolina Panthers squad and the Tennessee Titans (+1.5) upsetting the Indianapolis Colts. Watch as Nick explains why fans should take the Philadelphia Eagles (+3) as home underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. What are your best Week 13 bets?
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