With just four weeks left, several awards markets remain in serious doubt, especially after last week’s results. Four of the top seven MVP favorites lost last week. Each of the top five Coach of the Year favorites fell, with four losing as favorites. Even Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion.
Here is how the awards markets shape up entering Week 15 following last week’s results.
MVP
This has been one of the craziest MVP races in recent years, as Dak Prescott is the sixth different player to be favored in this market. Prescott was 60-1 a few weeks ago, but he tied Purdy as the favorite late last week and is now the outright favorite. Looking ahead, Prescott has a difficult stretch against the Bills, Dolphins and Lions coming up, while Purdy is a double-digit favorite this week against the Cardinals.
Purdy is the traditional MVP candidate as the quarterback for the likely No. 1 seed with elite stats. Normally, that would make him a heavy favorite to win this award. The only question is whether voters are willing to reward him in his first full season as a starter in a system that seems to produce quality quarterback play no matter who is under center.
After Purdy and Prescott, four of the next five favorites all lost. The only winner was Lamar Jackson who had one of his best statistical outputs of the season. Jackson has back-to-back prime-time games coming up, including a Christmas Day road game against the 49ers, which could make or break his candidacy.
Offensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Tyreek Hill (-200)
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Last week’s favorites: Hill (-200)
Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey had essentially been co-favorites for a couple months prior to last week when Hill became a -200 favorite. Those odds are unchanged from last week despite Hill suffering an ankle injury. Hill is still on pace for over 2,000 yards, but the ankle injury could throw a wrench into this market, as well as Hill having a difficult matchup against the Jets, while McCaffrey faces the Cardinals.
It’s unlikely Hill grows his lead this week given those factors, so if you are betting into this market this week, it’s likely McCaffrey or nothing.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Micah Parsons (-125)
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Last week’s favorite: Parsons (+115)
This is slowly becoming a two-man race between Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett as T.J. Watt’s candidacy is falling apart. Parsons is just a half-sack behind Garrett, who has not recorded a sack in three straight games. Parsons leads edge rushers in pressures and pass rush win rate, and the gap in counting stats is mostly gone.
Parsons is a deserving favorite over Garrett, but there is plenty of time to swing this market.
Coach of the Year
Each of the top five favorites in this market lost last week, including Dan Campbell, Matt LaFleur, DeMeco Ryans and Mike McDaniel all losing as favorites. Campbell and McDaniel likely need to win out to have any chance to win this award, and even that might not be enough. However, that is certainly not reflected in the market as they remain first and third in the ESPN BET market.
DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen have the shortest odds among the other contenders, but Ryans’ candidacy could be in trouble with C.J. Stroud’s injury. Those two play each other in Week 18 in Indianapolis.
There are a number of other longshots which could also make a move. Sean Payton is 13-1 despite being +130 to make the playoffs. Kevin Stefanski’s Browns are -500 to make the playoffs despite playing four quarterbacks and losing Nick Chubb. Even coaches as long as 150-1 like Todd Bowles could have a chance if they win out.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Stroud suffered a concussion and his status is in doubt going forward. Despite that, his odds did not move at all. Even if Stroud is out for the season, this award is likely wrapped up.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-700)
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Last week’s favorite: Carter (-200)
Jalen Carter returned a fumble for a touchdown in a nationally televised game against the Cowboys, moving his odds from -200 to -700. He still has fewer sacks and pressures than Will Anderson, who remains the second favorite. Anderson is third in pass rush win rate behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, but he only has five sacks. He also suffered an ankle injury last week.
Carter is a worthy favorite, but his -700 odds seem too short considering his counting stats if Anderson is healthy. One player to watch this week is Rams pass rusher Byron Young, who is 150-1 despite leading all rookies in sacks. Young faces a Rams team which has allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL.
Odds by ESPN BET
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