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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
If I’m placing bets on an NFL weekend, I’m not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week and the 2023 season are at the bottom of the story.
Odds via ESPN BET.
Pass completions
Patrick Mahomes under 24.5 completions (+100).
The Chiefs have not been able to put teams away this season like we would have expected. That should change Sunday. No matter how many drops the Chiefs have, the Patriots will still be outmatched. Once Kansas City gets out to a big lead it will be able to take its foot off the gas and run the ball. Plus, that league-high 5.9% drop rate might be bad for Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense, but it’s helpful to us fading completions. My model projects 22.4 completions for Mahomes.
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Pass attempts
Josh Allen over 34.5 pass attempts (-115).
Even though the Bills are more efficient running this year than in the past, there’s no question where this offense thrives the most: passing. They register 0.16 EPA per dropback and 0.04 EPA per designed carry. In what should be a crucial and close showdown with the powerhouse Cowboys, the Bills should want to lean into their advantage as much as they can. I’m way over here, with my model projecting Allen to record 38.9 pass attempts.
See also:
QB interceptions
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+125).
As a favorite against Seattle — who has a below average pass defense — my model agrees the under should be favored. But barely. Hurts has not been immune to interceptions this year, throwing 10, and therefore we have the fair price on the over at +105. That’s a bit of value against the line.
Receptions
James Cook under 2.5 receptions (+130)
The same rationale every week: man coverages yield far fewer running back receptions than zone, and no team runs more man than the Cowboys (64% of the time). I don’t think this is being fully baked into the props market and while our sample is far too small to prove it, we’re up 3.3 units over on six bets thus far.
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Chuba Hubbard under 1.5 receptions (+135)
Sacks
Myles Garrett (CLE) over 0.5 sacks (-150).
The model almost never likes a heavy favorite over like this, so I had to do a triple-take I wasn’t reading the line incorrectly here. We have everything working in our favor for this bet: Garrett is an elite pass rusher, the Browns are favored and Justin Fields still takes sacks at a very high 10% rate. I’ll be stunned if this line is this good by kickoff. I make the fair price here -210.
Montez Sweat (CHI) under 0.5 sacks (+105).
I know he’s on a hot streak with sacks with 3.5 in his past three games, but this is just too optimistic for a player who doesn’t generate elite pass rush win or pressure rates and is on the underdog team. Joe Flacco has just a 4.4% sack rate since 2021 and my model makes the under -166.
Micah Parsons (DAL) under 0.5 sacks (+145).
This bet isn’t for the faint of heart, but I show value on Parsons’ under with my model pricing it at +101. The key factor: Josh Allen has just a 3.4% sack rate, just a shade behind Patrick Mahomes, the league leader, at 3.3%. Quarterbacks play a huge role in sack rates, and that’s driving the projection here.
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Tackles + assists
Germaine Pratt (CIN) over 6.5 tackles + assists (-135)
This is a nice, low tackle line for a starting linebacker and I can’t imagine the Vikings will want to rely on Nick Mullens too much. My tackle model is way over here, and forecasts 8.3 tackles + assists for Pratt.
Alex Singleton (DEN) under 11.5 tackles + assists (-110)
Singleton has been on a tackling tear, reaching double-digit combined tackles in five consecutive games. Plus, being underdogs against the run-heavy Lions should yield quite a few tackles. So why the fade? The number is just too high. Even with all the tackling productivity recently Singleton has gone under this line in nine of 13 games. And the model — which is well aware of Detroit’s run-first tendencies — still only forecasts 9.0 tackles + assists for Singleton.
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Results
Last week
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QB interceptions: 2-1 (+1.3 units)
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Pass completions: 2-0 (+1.9 units)
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Pass attempts: 1-0 (+0.9 units)
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Receptions: 1-0 (+0.7 units)
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Sacks: 1-3 (-2.3 units)
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Tackles: 0-5 (-5.0 units)
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Overall: 7-9 (-2.5 units)
2023 season
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QB interceptions: 15-22 (-4.2 units)
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Pass completions: 6-6 (-0.4 units)
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Pass attempts: 8-8 (-1.0 units)
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Receptions: 5-1 (+3.3 units)
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Sacks: 67-49-6 (+14.5 units)
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Tackles: 56-48-1 (+7.8 units)
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Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
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D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
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Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
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Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
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Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
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Overall: 161-163-7 (+8.8 units)
