With two weekends left in the NFL regular season, and the playoffs right around the corner, the action is heating up.
There are two games on my slate this week that will be instrumental in determining the top seeds in both conferences.
First up, we have the Detroit Lions (11-4) visiting the Dallas Cowboys (10-5) on Saturday night. Surprisingly, the Lions are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Cowboys are still contending for the top spot in the NFC East.
Which one of these teams will get one step closer to the top with a victory this weekend?
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Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins (11-4) visit the Baltimore Ravens (12-3) in a game that could solidify the AFC’s top seed.
Can the Ravens continue their hot streak and gain control of the conference?
Speaking of hot streaks, I blew it last week, going 1-3 with my best bets, bringing my overall season record to 51-32-2.
Let’s get back on track!
Without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 17.
(All times ET)
Dolphins @ Ravens (1 p.m. Sunday, CBS)
The Ravens are coming off maybe the most impressive win in the entire league this season — destroying mighty San Francisco, and totally bottling up Kyle Shanahan’s offense in the process.
There’s a natural letdown coming, just like after Baltimore won in Cincinnati in Week 2, then lost at home to Indy in Week 3.
Or like when the Ravens rolled through Cleveland’s great defense for a 28-3 win, then went to Pittsburgh and melted down in a loss.
They smashed Detroit, then didn’t cover the next week in Arizona. Off the bye week, they didn’t cover against the Rams.
No Jaylen Waddle for Miami will obviously hurt, but Mike McDaniel runs a similar offense to Kyle Shanahan, and having seen what the Ravens did to them last week gives McDaniel an edge on what doesn’t work.
PICK: Miami (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Does Lamar Jackson get enough credit for the Ravens’ success?
Lions @ Cowboys (8:15 p.m. Saturday, ABC/ESPN)
This number has been bouncing around all week, as big money gamblers like the Cowboys up to 6, and anytime it hits 6.5, money on the other side drives it down.
The Cowboys might once again be without Zach Martin and Tyron Smith on the offensive line. Miami hit Dak Prescott 12 times last week, and sacked him four times.
Can the Detroit defense take advantage?
It is poor against the run and the pass. Nick Mullens tossed four interceptions last week against Detroit, and also threw for 411 yards, while Minnesota averaged 7.6 yards per play.
Dak Prescott will have a ton of success, and the Cowboys defense, after struggling the last two weeks, will bottle up Detroit late to get the cover.
PICK: Dallas (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Can Dak Prescott, Cowboys cook the Detroit defense?
Patriots @ Bills (1 p.m. Sunday, CBS)
Last week, double-digit underdogs went 3-0 against the spread, and sadly, one of those came at my expense, as the Eagles couldn’t get any stops.
This is a great revenge spot for the Bills, who went into New England in October and seven minutes into the game were down 10-0 after Josh Allen threw an interception on the first play. They had the ball late to win the game, but an Allen fumble ended it.
Prior to that, their final five drives got inside the New England 35.
This has the feel of a 42-13 Buffalo beating.
PICK: Buffalo (-13.5) to win by more than 13.5 points
Did Matt LaFleur, Packers make the right decision in suspending Jaire Alexander?
Packers @ Vikings (8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC)
I haven’t done much with totals this season, and historically, I’ve had a bigger edge on sides. But this feels like a huge divisional game with playoff implications.
The QB change for Minnesota to Jaren Hall should give a boost to the Minnesota offense, which will be without T.J. Hockenson and likely Jordan Addison.
The Packers defense has been the worst in the league in the second half of the season.
This feels like a 30-27 game, with whoever has the ball last, winning.
PICK: Over 43.5 points scored by both teams combined
Denver completely let me down last week, blowing up the teaser. If that didn’t make you vomit, how about backing two teams in the NFC South? Let’s get ugly.
2-team, 6-point teaser
Atlanta +3 to +9
New Orleans +2.5 to +8.5
This is less about the Falcons, who aren’t very good regardless of who the QB is. It’s more about the Bears giving points at home. Last week, I understood it against the Cardinals; but Atlanta actually has skill position players to keep this close.
The two most frustrating teams in the NFL to bet on for me this season have been the Saints and the Titans. Neither of them are consistent and both have defensive coaches that are cautious with the lead. The Saints here is a fade of the Bucs at the top of the market.
Baker Mayfield has been gassed up in the media all week and his underdog story this season has been fantastic. Now, he’s a favorite.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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