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Paul Gutierrez, ESPN Staff Writer
HENDERSON, Nev. — The Las Vegas Raiders have only been to the playoffs twice since the 2003 season, in 2016 and 2021.
With two games remaining this season, at the Indianapolis Colts (8-7) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) before closing out at home against the Denver Broncos (7-8), the 7-8 Raiders remain alive for their third postseason berth in two decades.
So is Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce, who took over for Josh McDaniels after he was fired Oct. 31, dangling the prospect of the playoffs as inspiration?
“Nope,” he shot back. “Colts. That’s how we’ve been focusing, what’s in front of us. I can’t control 2024, and [the playoffs are] in 2024. I’m in 2023 right now.”
Fair enough. But there are more than a few fleeting similarities between this year’s edition of the Raiders and the one that advanced to wild-card weekend two years ago.
For one, the Raiders are playing on emotion and playing hard for an interim coach, as they did under Rich Bisaccia.
For another, the Raiders, who won four straight games to close the 2021 season and force their way into the playoffs, had to win at Indianapolis in the season’s penultimate game.
Just like this year.
Except a four-game winning streak to end the season doesn’t guarantee them a spot this time around.
“New team, same dream,” Raiders receiver Hunter Renfrow told ESPN.com before the team’s bye week.
As it stands now, the Raiders are currently the AFC’s No. 11 team, with seven teams receiving playoff berths. Ahead of Las Vegas: the No. 7 Colts (8-7), No. 8 Houston Texans (8-7), No. 9 Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) and No. 10 Cincinnati Bengals (8-7).
How much would the Raiders love a do-over with the Minnesota Vikings and their 3-0 loss to them on Dec. 10?
Still, beating the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day raised the Raiders’ chances at making the playoffs to 10.4%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Beating the Colts on Sunday would raise their chances to 27%. Then it gets hairy.
The easiest, but most unlikely, path for the Raiders is to win the AFC West for the first time since 2002. That would involve the Raiders winning out and the Chiefs (9-6) losing to both the Bengals at home and at the Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) in Week 18. The FPI gives that scenario a 1.1% chance of happening.
Claiming a wild-card slot involves winning out and a number of different combinations involving the Buffalo Bills (9-6), Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7), Colts, Texans, Bengals and Steelers.
The Raiders beating the Colts would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis. But following up with a Week 18 win over the Broncos wouldn’t be enough by itself to get the Raiders over the hump and into the AFC playoff field, assuming the Chiefs win at least one more game and take the AFC West title out of play.
The Raiders would need at least two of the Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Colts, Bengals and Steelers to be 9-8 or worse to have a shot. Things are especially complicated when compared with the Steelers, who beat the Raiders in Week 3 and hold a head-to-head tiebreaker.
In short, the Raiders need to win both games and hope for help.
“When you get to this point of the year, everybody’s fighting, [everybody’s] been playing football for a long time,” rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell said. “… It’s going to be a really good challenge for us, another back-to-back road game. Another game on the road, going to have to deal with noise, all that stuff. It’s going to take, obviously, coming off a short week, a good week of practice, walkthroughs, getting good mental reps.
“We try to worry about ourselves, and, obviously, it was a great win for us last week, but … the NFL is so up and down, so we try to stay pretty even keel as much as possible, and not really based on the results week to week. But, rather, how we’re preparing, how we’re performing, all those things.”
Under Pierce, who retained defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, defense has been the Raiders’ calling card. Because after opponents averaged 23.4 points per game under the Josh McDaniels-coached Raiders, Las Vegas is giving up 15.3 ppg since Pierce took over. And while the Raiders’ turnover margin was minus-8 with McDaniels, it is plus-5 with Pierce.
Las Vegas is first in the league in scoring defense since Pierce was promoted; the Raiders were No. 22 before the switch. Plus, sacks are up — 24-16 — despite blitzing less, and opponents’ Total QBR has dropped from 60 to 39.
Offensively, O’Connell did not complete a pass after the first quarter Monday at Kansas City, going 0-for-10 after starting 9-of-11. And All-Pro receiver Davante Adams had just one catch for four yards against the Chiefs.
“We’ve got to still just figure out a way to play better on offense,” said Adams, who has 85 catches for 972 yards and five touchdowns. “Our defense is playing really well right now, carrying the team, and our special teams has been lights out this year. We’ve just got to find a way to be more consistent so we don’t end up being that weak link of the squad, especially with the talent that we have.”
And yes, Adams is aware of certain scenarios.
“But I don’t really get too focused on that, especially when it’s a situation where we most likely have to win all the games,” he said. “You can’t get too focused on all that other stuff because if you start worrying about what other people are doing … if you win a game, it’s the last game of the year and then you want to watch and see if a team beats a team to help you out? That’s one thing. But I think just being focused in the moment is what got us to win the last two, so we’ve just got to stick to that formula.
“It don’t really matter who we are playing, this team [the Colts] in particular. It kind of just depends on who we go out as that day. That’s how football is in the NFL. It’s not about how good you are; it’s about how good you play.”
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