The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled to light up the scoreboard this season. As they prepare to face off on Thursday Night Football in Week 14, their offensive ineptitude is close to making gambling history.
The point total for the contest opened at 31.5, which is the lowest total this NFL season. It would also be the lowest total for a game since 2008 and tie the mark for the lowest total set for a prime-time game since at least 2000.
If the Over/ Under for the matchup remains at 31.5, it would rank as the 14th-lowest point total for a regular-season NFL game since 1986.
How did we get here?
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New England, particularly, has had a tough run this season, sitting dead last in scoring with a measly 12.3 points per game. The Patriots made history with their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, becoming the first team since 1938 to lose three straight games despite allowing 10 or fewer points in each one.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 28th in scoring, averaging a robust, by comparison, 16 points per game.
Despite the opening total being historically low, it appears many bettors think the number is too high as the Under has garnered heavy action, moving the line to 30.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and 30 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
FOX Sports Research found that if this total closes at 30.5, Thursday’s game would be tied for the fifth-lowest point total in a regular-season game since 1986. At 30, it would be tied for the fourth-lowest point total in the same period.
For the sports trivia gurus out there, even at 30 or 30.5, the total still has a ways to go to become the lowest total since 1986. Coincidentally, the Patriots were also involved in that game, as the Over/ Under for their Week 17 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts was set at 28 in 1993.
That was a special weekend for bettors as two other matchups from that Sunday in 1993 round out the top three lowest totals ever, with the Detroit Lions–Chicago Bears game set at 28.5 and the New Orleans Saints–Philadelphia Eagles game set at 29.5.
But bringing it back to the future, it should be no surprise that bettors are hammering the Under this week.
For starters, betting the Under has been the move for night games this season, as the number has gone under the total in 26 of the 39 prime-time games so far.
Did Mac Jones play his FINAL game for the New England Patriots?
Both teams will also be starting backup quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh’s Mitch Trubisky has already been named the starter for Thursday’s game after Kenny Pickett suffered an ankle injury on Sunday, and New England’s Bailey Zappe started in place of a struggling Mac Jones in Week 13.
Lastly, the Steelers defense has been stingy this season, ranking sixth in points allowed (19.1), while the Patriots’ defense ranks 16th in points allowed (21.2).
As a result of these stout defenses, the Under has gone 10-2 in Pittsburgh games this season and hit nine times in New England’s first 12 games of the year.
However, before you pound the Under, FOX Sports Research has one interesting tidbit you may want to consider.
Since 1986, in the 13 regular-season games with a total between 28 and 31 points, the Over has gone 8-4-1.
So, however, you decide to bet the number, get ready for a prime-time record-setting point-total extravaganza.
All stats courtesy of FOX Sports Research.
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