Will this be Derrick Henry’s last season with the Titans? It’s tough to say

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

The possibility that this could be Derrick Henry’s last season with the Tennessee Titans has loomed since the spring, but the feeling seemed to reach a crescendo last week.

Henry had 16 carries for an abysmal nine yards in Sunday’s overtime loss to the Houston Texans, a team he has historically dominated. It marked his lowest rushing total since October of 2017.

After the game, which eliminated the Titans from playoff contention, he acknowledged for the first time publicly that this could be his last season in Nashville.

Tennessee (5-9) has two home games remaining, starting this week against the Seattle Seahawks (7-7).

“Definitely today (Sunday) you had that feeling,” Henry said of his Titans’ tenure possibly ending. “We had hope of kind of slipping in there (into the playoffs) and then being eliminated knowing there’s three games left.”

Henry’s future in Nashville is not so black and white.

It’s in question for obvious reasons: he’s an aging player at a short shelf-life position that’s been devalued in the NFL. He turns 30 in January. His contract expires in March. And the Titans have a natural successor on their roster in dynamic third-round rookie Tyjae Spears, who’s fourth among rookie running backs with 676 scrimmage yards. The former Tulane star has even played more offensive snaps than Henry (470 to Henry’s 467). A complement to Spears could be acquired in the draft or free agency.

Henry is not the player he once was — he’s averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry; his 3.4 yards-after-carry mark is his worst since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, according to Next Gen Stats — but it’s impossible to ignore how the decline of the Titans’ run blocking has impacted his play.

Adjusted line yards is an advanced metric that quantifies offensive-line responsibility on running back carries. Since 2020, as far back as FTN Data goes, Tennessee’s ranking in adjusted line yards has dropped every year — from 2nd in 2020, to 16th in 2021, 18th in 2022, to 20th in 2023 (through 14 games). Henry is averaging just 0.5 rushing yards before contact per carry this year, which ranks 35th of the 41 running backs with at least 100 carries, per Next Gen Stats. In his last three seasons of playing at least 15 games (2019-20, 2022), he never averaged fewer than 0.8 rushing yards before contact per carry.

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Despite the surrounding issues, Henry in 2023 has still managed to be one of the NFL’s top-performing running backs and the focus of opposing defenses. He’s sixth in the NFL in rushing yards (884) and rushing touchdowns (10). Per Next Gen Stats, 34.8 percent of his carries have come against a stacked box (eight-plus defenders), the second-highest rate in the league.

If Henry were to return, it would presumably be at a pay cut and reduced role, for the Titans to give Spears more touches and build the offense around rookie quarterback Will Levis. But one must factor in that Henry might prefer to play for a legitimate Super Bowl threat at this point in his career. A contender could be more inclined to give him a premium salary on a one-year deal.

Would the Titans prefer to keep Henry? It’s possible. He’s inextricably intertwined in the team’s identity. He wasn’t dealt ahead of October’s trade deadline, despite rampant rumors that the team would move him and the departure of fellow franchise cornerstone Kevin Byard. Henry is just 791 rushing yards shy of passing Eddie George to become the franchise’s career rushing leader. He’ll need at least another season to set the record.

“Tell that Buckeye (George) we’re coming from him, OK?” Vrabel told Henry in the locker room after the Titans’ victory over the Bengals in Week 4, when the latter passed Hall of Famer Earl Campbell for second place in franchise history. “Tell Eddie George we’re coming for him.”

Notice the use of we.

“I’ve been here my whole career,” Henry said Sunday. “Definitely want to go out strong if that isn’t the case (that my time in Nashville is ending). Just try to give it my all these last three games and leave it all on the field.”

But maybe, just maybe, these last few weeks of the season won’t be the final time we see him in two-tone blue.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.