2023-24 NFL odds: Jets-Patriots total drops to 29.5 points, pick

How low can the New York Jets and the New England Patriots go?

With both teams eliminated from the postseason, the Jets (6-10) play at the Patriots (4-12) in the season finale Sunday, and the game will be shown on FOX and the FOX Sports App.

The total has dropped to 29.5 combined points on Saturday night from 30 earlier in the day and 30.5 earlier in the week. 

It is the lowest total for an NFL game since a Eagles–Saints contest in 1993.

[Related: Bill Belichick decision looms]

The total makes sense, as the Patriots are last in scoring at 14.6 points per game and the Jets are 29th at 15.7 PPG.

And don’t forget the weather. It’s supposed to snow Saturday night in Boston, and Sunday’s forecast calls for a high of 36 degrees and a low of 21.

Jets @ Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports app)

Point spread: Patriots -2.5 (Patriots favored to win by more than 2.5 points, otherwise Jets cover)
Moneyline: Patriots -130 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.69 total); Jets +109 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20.90 total)
Total: 29.5 points scored by both teams combined

New York Jets

NYJ

+2.5

+109

o29.5

New England Patriots

NE

-2.5

-130

u29.5

According to FOX Sports Research, there were 13 regular-season games dating back to 1986 with a closing total between 28 and 31 points.

The Over has hit nine times with three Unders and one push.

1993, Week 17: Patriots 38, Colts 0 (28, Over)
1993, Week 17: Lions 20, Bears 14 (28.5, Over)
1993, Week 17: Eagles 37, Saints 26 (29.5, Over)
2005, Week 14: Steelers 21, Bears 9 (30, push)
2023, Week 14: Patriots 21, Steelers 18 (30.5, Over)
1993, Week 16: Patriots 20, Browns 17 (30.5, Over)
1994, Week 13: Bears 19, Cardinals 16 OT (30.5, Over)
2004, Week 6: Bills 20, Dolphins 13 (30.5, Over)
2005, Week 7: Bears 10, Ravens 6 (30.5, Under)
2005, Week 13: Bears 19, Packers 7 (30.5, Under)
1991, Week 9: Bears 20, Saints 17 (31, Over)
1992, Week 14: Steelers 20, Seahawks 14 (31, Over)
1993, Week 15: Patriots 7, Bengals 2 (31, Under)

Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft to hit negotiating table Monday

FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam “Sammy P” Panayotovich said the combination of cold and windy weather, two backup quarterbacks starting and both teams out of the playoffs adds up (subtracts?) to a low-scoring game.

“Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian don’t exactly ooze offensive confidence, and when you whisk in their inability to make big plays with 20-mile-per-hour winds in a potential Nor’easter, you have the perfect recipe for a rock fight,” Panayotovich said.

“The total has already dropped a handful of points, but I still don’t think it’s low enough. Even if heavy snow avoids Gillette Stadium, the wind is way, way more important, and that doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. Also, people will likely see the elements on TV and drive the number even lower.”

PICK: Under 30.5 points (at time of pick) scored by both teams combined

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