The final weekend of the NFL season is always a hard one to handicap because the overwhelming majority of teams already know their postseason fate and have nothing to play for.
Historically, some coaches tend to ease up on the gas pedal a bit by resting starters and lightening up the game plan. Meanwhile, others are always in full-throttle mode, even with the backups.
Profiting off these trends shows there’s still value in finding edges in some of these games that “don’t matter.”
So, with that in mind, keep reading to see what picks I’m making for the final weekend of the NFL regular season.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Kansas City Chiefs are AFC West champions and locked into the third seed for the playoffs. Win, lose or draw on Sunday, they get at least one home playoff game this postseason.
Andy Reid has been here before. He’s had Chiefs teams that enter the final weekend of the season knowing they have nothing to play for. In these situations, he always rests his starters.
I played in one such game in 2013, against the Chargers.
We were locked into the fifth seed, and the eight most important players on the team did not dress for the game. Other starters who had to dress didn’t play unless there was an injury. That year, the backup offense scored 24 points.
Famously, in Week 17 of the 2017 season, Patrick Mahomes made his first start because the Chiefs were resting Alex Smith before the playoffs. The team scored 27 at Denver.
In 2020, the Chiefs scored 21 when they sat starters against the Chargers.
So it is clear, even with Chiefs backup players in the game, Andy Reid’s offense has shown the ability to score points.
The difference this season, of course, is that the Chiefs offense isn’t special and they have struggled to put numbers on the boards. However, sitting some of the starting wide receivers might help boost the scoring (don’t laugh too hard, please).
Taking the Chiefs team total Over is a hedge that maybe Mahomes and the starting offense will play for a few series to find a rhythm before the postseason, hopefully.
PICK: Chiefs team total Over 16.5 points scored
Lamar Jackson holds firm, Purdy rises & Penix Jr. soars Mahomes Mountain
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Is Mike Vrabel a home underdog? Yes.
Do we wager on Mike Vrabel as a home underdog? Yes.
Gambling doesn’t have to be that complicated. Mike Vrabel is the best coach in the NFL as a home underdog, even when his team isn’t very good. Look at the Titans’ last three home games.
They played the Colts as slight underdogs and did not cover with a 3-point overtime loss. They didn’t win in regulation because their punter got injured, and the backup holder botched the snap on an extra point.
Two weekends ago, the Titans lost by three as an underdog, and if you got the number on any day other than Sunday, you pushed at worst.
After losing four straight, Jacksonville broke through last weekend with a win over the lowly Panthers. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed his first NFL game, but he’s expected to be back Sunday. A Jaguars win clinches the AFC South and the fourth seed in the playoffs.
Even with the losing streak broken, this Jaguars team is still not playing good football. The defense is allowing a ton of points, and Lawrence has regressed a bit while playing through injury.
The Titans would love to play spoiler here. I’ll take the points
PICK: Titans (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)
Should the Eagles rest their starters?
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)
This is a game with both AFC South and wild card implications.
A win by either team would put them in the driver’s seat for a wild card berth, and, coupled with a Jaguars’ loss to Tennessee, the winner would host a playoff game as the division champ.
This game comes down to Houston having the better quarterback. C.J. Stroud is healthy and played well in his return to action last weekend against the Titans.
The Colts are a fun story this year — they’ve got a first-year head coach, and they lost starting quarterback Anthony Richardson early in the season. But this team isn’t reliable, and every game is a roller coaster.
This Colts squad got blown out by the Falcons just two weeks ago, and Jake Browning’s Bengals team dominated the Colts just over a month ago.
The Texans are just better, and I’ll take them to win here.
PICK: Texans (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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