Are you betting on the big NFL playoff games this weekend?
If so, you’ll want to listen to The Group Chat segment of the latest episode of “Bear Bets”, as the fellas break down the AFC and NFC title games.
FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Geoff Schwartz, along with Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill, had a lot of thoughts on the conference championship slate, and they’re already looking ahead to the Super Bowl.
Let’s get right to their bets.
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The Chiefs are underdogs once again, as the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the AFC title game. Is there a side you like against the spread or one of these teams on the moneyline?
Sammy P: Play a Ravens-49ers moneyline parlay
“It’s at even money right now. I’m going to assume that Baltimore wins this game. Then, you could do whatever you want in the night game. You have the big favorite at night, and maybe you can take +7.5 with Detroit. So then you got Baltimore in the house, you’re halfway home, you have the Niners to win, and now you can middle it.”
Hill: Chiefs +3.5
“I know Baltimore is the better team. Baltimore’s numbers against playoff teams are incredible. But they’re not invincible. They were tied 10-10 and at halftime against the Texans. Lamar Jackson looked flustered against the blitz. This is still a team that Matthew Stafford threw for 300 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against. They’re beatable. This should be a great game. When in doubt, take the points with Patrick Mahomes.”
Ravens vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship odds, predictions, best bets
What player props do you like in this game?
The Bear: Patrick Mahomes Under 243.5 passing yards, maybe Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 rushing yards
“We know that they don’t necessarily trust all their wide receivers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling catching a couple of passes, but what are the odds of that happening again? Forget it. And I think they know that with their defense beat up a little bit, maybe they try to keep Lamar off the field. You’re going to see a lot of those designed pass plays turn into Mahomes runs.”
Schwartz: Travis Kelce Under 5.5 receptions, take one of the Chiefs’ lesser receivers to be an anytime TD scorer
“I know sometimes we don’t want to fade Travis Kelce in these moments, but he had a great game last week and had only five catches. That’s it. He’s at the point of his career where I think he’s not a guy that we’re going to expect later in the season, as the playoffs get deeper, to end up with seven, eight or nine receptions.
Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy Conference Championship player props
In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers are 7-point favorites at home against the Lions (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Is there a side you like against the spread here?
Sammy P: Can’t lay the points with the 49ers, but lean toward moneyline
“Psychologically, I’m hesitant to bet the 49ers because on this program last week, I said the 49ers would score at will, and that was not correct. I think the 49ers are the right side. The 49ers are probably going to win this game. But we had a lot of variations of 49ers bets, and it was sort of like that scene in “Space Jam” when Charles Barkley gets his talent zapped out of him. That’s what happened to their offense when Deebo Samuel got knocked out.
“The reality is that these are two of the tightest lines of the entire season. I made Baltimore -3.5. I made San Francisco -7. I can’t sit here and pretend like there’s a massive edge with either side.”
Hill: Going back and forth on the spread
“The 49ers’ numbers with and without Deebo, there’s so much of a difference. It was not pretty last week. Not only did they not cover, not only did they almost lose, but they should’ve lost. … The 49ers are very fortunate to be here.
“I was impressed with the 49ers’ defense. Brock Purdy was terrible, and I love Purdy. I just can’t get there with Detroit. They allowed the Rams 7.7 yards per play and allowed almost seven again to the Buccaneers.”
Lions vs. 49ers: NFC Championship best bets, odds, predictions
Any team or player props?
The Bear: Lions Over 20.5 points
“The Niners defense is really vulnerable on the back end. I think you can make the case that if Deebo doesn’t play, maybe the Niners do struggle, and maybe they will not go over their team total. Maybe they will not cover. But I think either scenario — whether the Lions score points and get up on San Francisco and hold on to win, or the Niners offense is humming, and the Lions need to keep score left and right to keep pace — give you a path.”
Schwartz: Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 receiving yards
“If Deebo doesn’t play, which sounds like it won’t happen, does this offense change? Does Brock Purdy change? Does he play worse than last week? The Lions’ pass defense is atrocious. They’ve allowed 140-plus yards to a receiver in five straight games. … I think the 49ers are obviously going to target Aiyuk.”
Schwartz: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 14.5 yards
“The 49ers have allowed a rush of 16 yards or longer to five running backs in their last four games.”
The Bear: Brock Purdy Over 272.5 passing yards
“This Lions defense allowed 349 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and 367 passing yards to Matthew Stafford. Even if Deebo Samuel doesn’t play, I think they have enough weapons to go around.”
Any early Super Bowl bets you like?
Sammy P: If you like the Ravens or Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, bet it now
“I get this feeling whoever wins the AFC game will be favored in the Super Bowl, even if the Chiefs pull it off. I mean, is Mahomes really gonna be a ‘dog in the Super Bowl? Yeah, I mean, it’s possible, but I don’t think they’ll be big favorites.”
Hill: Ravens -3.5 on lookahead line vs. Lions if they both make it to the Super Bowl
“If that’s the Super Bowl, that looks light. Baltimore would get bet up. Remember, they beat the Lions by about a million points back in late October.”
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