The Bucs were already talking about treating every game like a playoff game five weeks ago, so of course, there’s no need to manufacture any lose-and-go-home urgency for Sunday’s regular-season finale against Carolina.
The threat is very real. If Tampa Bay loses — to the team with the worst record in the NFL — then the Bucs’ season is over, a colossal disappointment after a four-game winning streak had them at 8-7 with two weeks left, one win away from clinching a third straight NFC South title.
“We’ve been stressing that all year: You’ve got to earn everything,” coach Todd Bowles said Wednesday. “Like I told them: ‘Nobody’s going to give you anything.’ You earn everything you get in this league. Whether you’re the best of teams or the worst of teams, you’re going to earn everything you get every week.”
The Bucs could have clinched the division last week on their home field, but they fell well short of that, falling behind 20-0 in the fourth quarter on the way to a 23-13 loss to the Saints. That kept the door open for the Saints and Falcons, who meet Sunday in New Orleans. If the Bucs lose to Carolina, the winner of Saints-Falcons gets the division title, perhaps even with a losing record.
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If win-and-you’re-in wasn’t enough to motivate the Bucs last week, the flip side — lose and you’re out — will add to that drive on Sunday.
And to add more drama to the week, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield took a shot to his ribs on a two-point conversion in the final minutes of Sunday’s loss to the Saints, and while X-rays came back negative, he was in significant pain coming off the field. The Bucs had only a walkthrough practice Wednesday, but Bowles said Mayfield would not have participated had it been a full practice. The quarterback, who has pushed through multiple injuries to start every game and play all but three snaps this season, made it clear he intends to play.
“I’ll do everything I can to be out there, that’s for sure,” Mayfield said. “Division on the line, playoff hopes on the line, going back to Carolina? Yeah, I’ll do everything I can.”
The Bucs will not be taking Carolina lightly. They faced the Panthers when Carolina was 1-10 in Week 13, having just fired coach Frank Reich, and the Panthers kept the game dangerously close. They led briefly in the third quarter, and their touchdown with 5:04 got them to within 21-18. Carolina got the ball back for a final drive, but Bryce Young‘s fourth-and-1 pass downfield was intercepted by safety Antoine Winfield to clinch the Bucs’ escape.
There is a real and recent precedent for a team in the Bucs’ position facing the worst team in the NFL with a playoff berth on the line and seeing the nightmare come true. Just two years ago, the Colts were 9-6 and needed one win in their last two games to clinch a playoff berth. They lost to the Raiders, and in Week 18 faced a Jaguars team that was 2-14 and playing for an interim coach, and Indianapolis was humbled with a 26-11 defeat that ended its season.
The Bucs have endured their share of ups and downs this season — a 3-1 start, then losing six of the next seven, then four straight wins before the disappointment of Sunday’s loss. Now, all they need is one win, against a lesser opponent. Bowles has talked all season about his team writing its own story, on ignoring outside storylines to control what they can control, and that’s never been more true than it will be Sunday afternoon in Charlotte.
“It’s all you can ask for,” Bowles said. “We’re looking forward to it. We understand where we are. We’re happy to be in this spot, playing positive football in [January], trying to get a spot in the playoffs. We control our own narrative, and it’s up to us to win.”
Tampa Bay had four turnovers in Sunday’s loss to the Saints, even though they went into the game tied for the best turnover margin in the NFL. That really shouldn’t be a problem against Carolina, which has forced a league-low 11 takeaways in 16 games this season, though Mayfield had an interception in the first game against the Panthers.
Mayfield joked that he’ll do whatever it takes to be ready to play Sunday — “maybe Kevlar,” he joked about how he can protect himself. He’s been in this position before: In 2020, when the Browns hadn’t made the playoffs in 18 years, they held on to beat the Steelers in their season finale. He said he’ll try to let his younger teammates know how much is on the line Sunday.
“That’s something you try and teach the young guys, but until they’re in it, they don’t necessarily understand or really grasp it,” Mayfield said. “I can say that firsthand … it’s strange how it happens. You’re playing for your job at that point, for the next week, just for another opportunity. It’s a special atmosphere.
“You have to appreciate it. You have to understand that, ‘Hey, when we get in this huddle, it could be our last time together.’ We’ll see. Just make it happen and make it count.”
Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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