Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs divisional round: Prediction, odds, picks

The Buffalo Bills are slight favorites (-2.5) in an AFC Divisional round matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The expected point total for the matchup is set at 45.

The Bills have been scorching hot recently, winning seven of their last eight, including taking down the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in the wild-card round last weekend. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs enter this one fresh off a 26-7 wild-card victory against the Miami Dolphins. 

This is a rematch of a Dec. 10th tilt where the Bills won 20-17 in Kansas City. 

Will the Chiefs get their revenge, or can the Bills finally put down Mahomes and Co. in the postseason?

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Chiefs and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-2.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (45) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 24 – Kansas City 18

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

This has become the best rivalry in the NFL. 

This is a rematch of the divisional round classic from two years ago. The exact same round and the same time slot — late game Sunday night. That game was 42-36, this game will not be. 

I think both of these teams carry a reputation for being explosive on offense, but that is not matched by what we saw on the field this year. 

The Chiefs are an elite defense now, and have a dearth of weapons on offense as strange as that is to get used to. 

The Bills also have become a more run-heavy team in the latter part of the season under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. 

It will be a fantastic entry in what will be another chapter in this rivalry, but I’m thinking more of a 23-20 game, and under 46.5. 

PICK: Under 46.5 points scored by both teams combined

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Kansas City

• Game Date: Sunday, January 21, 2024
• Time: 6:30 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Chiefs Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head meetings, Buffalo has beaten Kansas City three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has scored 95 points against Kansas City, while surrendering only 94 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Against the spread, Buffalo went 7-10-0 during the regular season. It is 1-0-0 ATS in the playoffs.
• The Bills have an ATS record of 6-8 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season (regular season and playoffs).
• In the regular season, six of Buffalo’s 17 games hit the over. It is one of one in terms of topping the over/under in the postseason.
• The Bills finished with a 10-4 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite in the regular season (winning 71.4% of those games), and they have a record of 1-0 when favored on the moneyline in the playoffs.
• Buffalo has a 10-3 record (winning 76.9% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -142 or shorter, including the regular season and playoffs.
• The Bills have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 58.7%.

Bills Stats

Buffalo’s Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen ranks fourth in the NFL with 4,306 passing yards in 17 games this year, averaging 253.3 per game with a 66.5% completion percentage and 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) against 18 interceptions.
• He has added 524 rushing yards (30.8 per game) and 15 touchdowns on the ground.
• James Cook’s rushing statline this season includes 1,122 yards (fourth in the NFL) and two TDs. He’s averaging 66 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
• Cook’s 54 targets as part of the passing attack have resulted in 44 catches (2.6 per game) for 445 yards (26.2 per game) and four touchdowns.
• Stefon Diggs has eight touchdown catches this season (eighth in the NFL), and has 107 receptions (seventh in the NFL) for 1,183 yards on 160 targets, while averaging 6.3 catches and 69.6 yards per game.
• Gabriel Davis averages 2.8 receptions and 46.6 yards per game, and has 746 total receiving yards and 45 catches. He’s gotten 81 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.

Defense

• Over on defense, Terrel Bernard has three interceptions to go with 143 tackles, 10 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2023.
• Taron Johnson has 98 tackles, three TFL, and one sack this season.
• Ed Oliver has totaled 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
• So far this season, Rasul Douglas has 61 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and five interceptions. He’s fifth on the Bills in tackles.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Against the spread, Kansas City was 10-7-0 during the regular season. In the postseason, it has an ATS record of 1-0-0.
• The Chiefs have covered every time (1-0) as 2.5-point underdogs or greater in the regular season and playoffs.
• In 17 Kansas City games during the regular season, five of them went over the total. Meanwhile, zero of one games in the playoffs have hit the over.
• The Chiefs won the only game they played as underdogs during the regular season, and have gone 0-0 in the postseason.
• Kansas City has played as an underdog of +120 or more in the regular season and playoffs once this season and won that game.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Chiefs have a 45.5% chance to win.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City’s Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II is averaging 7 passing yards per attempt (19th in the NFL) and 261.4 yards per game this year, completing 67.2% of his passes on the way to 4,183 total yards (sixth in the NFL), 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions through 16 games.
• On the ground, Mahomes has added 389 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs).
• Isiah Pacheco averages 66.8 rushing yards per game through 14 games (935 total yards), while scoring seven rushing touchdowns.
• Pacheco has also picked up 244 receiving yards (17.4 per game) on 44 catches (3.1 per game). He’s been targeted 49 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
• So far this season, Rashee Rice has caught 79 passes for 938 receiving yards with seven touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 102 total times and is averaging 4.9 receptions per game over 16 games played.
• Travis Kelce has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 93 catches for 984 yards .

Defense

• Justin Reid has intercepted one pass and also has 95 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and seven passes defended in 2023.
• Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, three TFL, and three sacks. He is second on the Chiefs in tackles.
• L’Jarius Sneed has 78 tackles, five TFL, and two interceptions in the 2023 season. He is third on the Chiefs in tackles.
• Chris Jones has totaled 10.5 sacks (first on the Chiefs) as well as 13 TFL and 30 tackles.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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