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Marcel Louis-Jacques, ESPN
MIAMI — The Miami Dolphins enter this offseason at a critical juncture in their five-year rebuild under general manager Chris Grier.
They’ve got the star power in Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and others.
They’ve got the coach in Mike McDaniel, who is the third man in franchise history to win 20 games and make the playoffs in each in their first two seasons as coach, joining Dave Wannstedt and Don Shula.
But they’ve also made two consecutive first-round exits in the playoffs and are roughly $50 million over the NFL’s salary cap.
They’ll also search for their third defensive coordinator in as many years after mutually agreeing to part ways with Vic Fangio after one season.
“We’re not really, right now, concerned about where we’ll be in March, salary cap-wise,” Grier said. “I think (Senior Vice President of Football & Business Administration) Brandon Shore and (Director of Football Administration and Strategy) Max Napolitano, we’ve had a lot of conversations. They’ve given us a lot of flexibility with multiple options of ways we can be creative, and so hats off to them just through their work and grind on things.
“Mike, Brandon and I will have a lot of discussions. We’ll talk with (Dolphins owner) Steve (Ross) as we get through here and we’ll try and keep as many of the players here that we can.”
Miami must address several areas of concern over the next several months, not including the NFL draft in April. Here are a few things to keep in mind along the way:
Pending free agents
The Dolphins are in an unenviable position of being well over the salary cap with multiple starters set to hit free agency. On their offensive line, center Connor Williams and right guard Robert Hunt are unrestricted free agents this offseason. Losing one of them may be a necessary evil, but losing both is not something this team is currently equipped to overcome.
Liam Eichenberg performed admirably after Williams tore his ACL in Week 16, but the team would still need to add another player at the position if it declines to re-sign Williams, which Grier did not commit to.
“Liam came in and battled through his bumps and bruises and did a great job for us,” Grier said. “Connor was playing some good football for us and the leadership stuff he provided. Unfortunately, with football, injuries happen. He’s been great communicating with Mike through us here through the end of the season.
“We’ll stay in touch with him and see what happens.”
Hunt, on the other hand, is a homegrown talent whom Miami drafted in the second round in 2020. He has started 55 games over the past four seasons and while Miami signed right tackle Austin Jackson to a three-year, $36 million contract during the season, Hunt should be the next priority on that side of the ball.
“Rob and all those offensive linemen worked tirelessly to improve and get better and buy into the scheme and so for us, like all of them, he’s earned the right to be a free agent,” Grier said. “We did have a conversation with him during the season, so we’ll see what happens here as we go through it. But again, these guys have earned the right to be free agents. We would like them to be here. They want to be here. So we’ll have to see what happens.”
Then, of course, there’s the big one — defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. Contract talks with the 2019 first-round pick fell apart despite an offer that Grier said the Dolphins felt was “fair.” Sources told ESPN that offer held an average annual value of $20 million per year.
Wilkins set a career-high with nine sacks in 2023, nearly half of his 20.5 career sacks. A team captain and half of a productive tandem with fellow defensive tackle Zach Sieler, Wilkins is one of the marquee free agents in the league this offseason. Both sides have expressed interest in continuing their partnership, but they’ll have to find a number they agree on.
“He bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him,” Grier said. “So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent. Again, I’m happy for him. We drafted him here, developed him here, and he’s the type of person we’re looking for.”
Miami must also make decisions on linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker, and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis.
Fifth-year options
The Dolphins haven’t made any selections in the first round since 2021, but those players — Waddle and Jaelan Phillips — are eligible to have their fifth-year options exercised this offseason.
Waddle is a no-brainer. His 3,385 receiving yards since 2021 rank 13th in the NFL, and Miami’s passing offense struggled without him in the final two games of the regular season. Considering their lack of financial flexibility, keeping a Pro Bowl-caliber player under team control for below market value is a fairly obvious move.
Phillips’ situation is slightly more complicated. His on-field production is unquestioned; he has 22.5 sacks since 2021 and his 17.6% pass rush win rate as an edge rusher is the 15th-best mark in the NFL in that same time span.
He tore his Achilles this season, however, which may make the Dolphins think about this decision for longer than usual. But, it shouldn’t deter them from locking in one of their best young core players.
The Tua question
Entering the 2023 season, the biggest question surrounding quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was whether he could remain healthy for an entire season.
He did.
Now, the question revolves around his value.
Tagovailoa set career-highs with 4,624 yards and 29 passing touchdowns this season, completing 69.3% of his passes. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract, but it’s rare a first-round quarterback plays out that final season without an extension.
Three other quarterbacks from his draft class have signed major extensions. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts signed five-year contracts worth $275 million, $262.5 million and $255 million, respectively. But two of those players have won conference championships. Tagovailoa lost his lone playoff start two weeks ago.
“The goal is to have him here long term playing at a high level,” Grier said. “That’s always the goal, and we’ll continue to communicate with him through the offseason here. Like we’ve always said in the past, you guys know me, we don’t really talk in the media through all that stuff, so we’ll just keep all those talks internal and with his reps.”
At his best, Tagovailoa is capable of numbers similar to or surpassing Burrow, Herbert and Hurts. But his production has tailed off during the final month of the season in back-to-back years, and he failed to impress against Kansas City in the Wild Card round, albeit in subzero conditions.
Miami could wait until next offseason to extend him, at the risk of paying even more than it would this year. Either way, the Dolphins have a decision to make with their starting quarterback.
Leading the defense
Fangio is gone, so now what?
Finding his replacement as defensive coordinator doesn’t have to be a wide search. In fact, it doesn’t even have to leave the building. Current linebackers coach Anthony Campanile has already interviewed for the New York Giants‘ open defensive coordinator job this offseason and has built-in respect within the Dolphins’ locker room and organization. He has been with Miami since 2020 and would likely provide the smoothest transition of any potential candidate.
If McDaniel decides against promoting Campanile, two big-name candidates come to mind — Brandon Staley and Wink Martindale. Staley struggled to meet expectations as the Los Angeles Chargers‘ head coach but has experience running Fangio’s system and familiarity with Ramsey from their time with the Los Angeles Rams.
Martindale recently served as the Giants’ defensive coordinator for the past two seasons and provides championship-caliber experience; he was part of the Baltimore Ravens staff when the team won Super Bowl XLVII in 2013
