What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 18? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
This is always an unusual week, with some teams having little to play for and sitting their starters. Which game(s) are you focusing in on as the ones you want to bet?
Schatz: I can imagine that Dan Campbell will have his team playing hard even if the Lions are probably ticketed for the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Lions are eighth in weighted DVOA, with the Vikings 23rd, and the Minnesota quarterback situation is a bit of a mess. The Lions already beat the Vikings in Minnesota a couple of weeks ago, 30-24, and I think they can do it again, so Detroit Lions -3.5 is a bet I’m comfortable taking.
Fulghum: I want to take the Ravens +4 (-115) hosting the Steelers. Although Baltimore has nothing to play for, we know this team has tremendous culture and depth on its roster, as evidenced by its recent outstanding preseason streak of covers. This is a division foe the Ravens know very well. Don’t be surprised if they win the game outright. Sometimes, it’s just easiest to bet a total when we’re unsure of motivation, and I love an under when two poor offenses combine with inclement weather. Patriots/Jets UNDER 30.5 (-110) sure looks appealing to me. A 13-10 final score shouldn’t surprise anyone in this situation.
Which game(s) are you avoiding entirely this weekend?
Schatz: Please keep me away from the Rams at the 49ers, the battle of the backups. With both teams sitting starters, nobody has much of an idea of who is playing and how good they are going to be. I suppose there’s a little bit of faith that the 49ers’ offensive scheme can plug in any quarterback and get something good out of him, but that’s already reflected in the line of 49ers -4 so there’s no real advantage there.
Fulghum: I would stay away from the Cowboys-Commanders game. Although Dallas is completely motivated to win the game to lock in the No. 2 seed in the NFC, the 13-point spread leaves the back door wide open in the fourth quarter if Mike McCarthy knows the outcome is already secured.
Walder: Rams-49ers is the worst of all worlds because of resting and the lack of motivation. Really any game with one team trying to rest — like, say, Browns-Bengals — presents problems for all of our data-driven work. I will say: for those compelled it’s possible they present opportunities especially from a props perspective, but at least for me, my models are not set up to handle situations like this.
With every team having played 16 of 17 games heading into the weekend, the futures market has had a long time to establish itself. That said, which futures bet do you think could shift the most based on this final game of the regular season?
Fulghum: The Defensive Rookie of the Year race feels like it’s wide open. Eagles rookie Jalen Carter has been a massive favorite for most of this season, but Rams rookie Kobie Turner has made a drastic late-season run. He leads all rookies in sacks this season (9.0) and likely will get an opportunity to add to that against the 49ers. Late money has come in on Texans rookie Will Anderson Jr., who will be featured in a very prominent Saturday night game against the Colts.
Walder: I agree with Tyler on DROY. It does feel like the tide has turned on Carter, who has fallen off in the second half of the season and who hasn’t played a ton which really could cost him. I’m not counting him out but I think Will Anderson Jr. (+230) actually has the best chance to take this. He ranks third in pass rush win rate at edge this season only behind Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett! A sack Saturday could seal it for him. Kobie Turner, to me, is a little too late and while he has the sacks, he gets to play next to Aaron Donald and his pass rush win rate isn’t as convincing. Honestly, I’m not ready to rule out Brian Branch, Devon Witherspoon or Joey Porter Jr. yet, either. But if I’m putting my money on one guy right now it’s Anderson Jr.
What’s your favorite prop bet this weekend?
Walder: C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions (+135). Just a value here, with my model putting the fair price at +101. Stroud has the lowest interception rate in the league this year (+101) but this is expected to be a close game (Texans are favored by 1.5) and ultimately we know that the probability of quarterbacks throwing an interception tends to hug 50% pretty tightly. Flip the coin on this near 50-50 proposition and take the plus-money.
Is there anything else you’re playing this weekend?
Schatz: Four years ago, the Baltimore Ravens dominated the regular season and sat their starters in the final game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Robert Griffin started instead of Lamar Jackson and led the Baltimore backups to a 28-10 win that ended the Steelers’ playoff hopes. I don’t think the Ravens would put up a win that big again, but don’t sleep on what their backups can do. After all, there’s only a certain number of starters who can actually sit down. And although there’s some game theory out there that suggests Baltimore should lose on purpose to try to keep the Bills out of the playoffs, that’s not how players think. They’re going to be playing hard. You can penalize the Ravens a ton based on sitting starters and it’s still hard to imagine they’re less than an average team — playing at home, no less, against a Steelers team that isn’t much better than average. I’ll take the Ravens +4.
Moody: Devin Singletary over 62.5 rushing yards. The Texans will lean heavily on C.J. Stroud and the passing game, but Houston shouldn’t overlook the running game. This season, the Colts’ defense has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Singletary has surpassed 62.5 rushing yards in three of his past four games. In that time frame, he has averaged 16.0 rushing attempts per game. It’s also worth mentioning that if Singletary rushes for 74 or more yards, he’ll earn a $125,000 contract incentive.
Moody: Mason Rudolph over 198.5 passing yards. As the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they are likely to rest their starters. The Steelers, however, need a win and some assistance to punch their ticket for the postseason. The Baltimore defense will be without key starters, which benefits Rudolph. In two consecutive games, he threw for 274 or more yards.
Moody: George Pickens over 51.5 receiving yards. Over the past two games with Rudolph, Pickens has caught 11 of 15 targets for 326 receiving yards. Having finally lived up to the hype, the young receiver looks unstoppable catching passes from Rudolph and should remain hot in Week 18.
