Nothing hits quite like the NFL playoffs. From red hot rookies to ice cold temperatures, the NFL treated fans to an aptly named wild-card weekend of ball. Underdogs shined bright, going 4-2 ATS and 3-3 outright (with the fourth losing by just one point). Home teams also played to their advantage, winning five of the six wild-card matchups (not trying to take shots here, Dallas fans). It’s an edge the books are leaning heading into the divisional Round.
Baltimore, San Francisco and Detroit are all favored by at least six points. Speaking of the Lions: Dear Daniel… have you recovered from what was, unequivocally, the most thrilling game of last week’s slate? Don’t answer that.
Instead, let’s band together and give the people that same wondrously winning feeling. Even if your home team doesn’t take the field in January that doesn’t mean you can’t still revel in victory. Double D and I have procured some props that can help your new year continue to pop. And we’re having fun with positions this go-around!
QB props
Baker Mayfield OVER 254.5 passing yards (at Lions)
Daniel: Mayfield lands in a pretty sweet prop spot, taking on a vulnerable Lions passing defense that’s surrendered over 345 passing yards in four straight games. FOUR STRAIGHT! They have been a monster against opposing teams’ running backs, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game and third-fewest yards per carry this season. It’s because of that stout rush defense that teams throw so much against the Lions. The league average is 31.3 pass attempts per game, yet over the last four they’ve had quarterbacks attempt 36, 38, 44 and 36 passes.
In a win or go home environment, expect Mayfield to continue to throw like he has been. Over the last five games, Mayfield has surpassed 254 passing yards four times, (Packers, Jaguars, Saints, Eagles). And for what it’s worth, Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in those same four games. Taking a Mayfield OVER 254.5 as a standalone prop is where we’re starting, but don’t be afraid to consider OVER 254.5 and OVER 1.5 passing TDs as a two-leg parlay. It paid out last week with Stafford and since Mayfield has done it in four of the last five, there’s a good likelihood it happens this week too.
C.J. Stroud OVER 34.5 pass attempts (at Ravens)
Daniel: It’s been a magical season for Stroud and the Houston Texans. After finishing 3-13-1 in the 2022 season (thank you, Lovie Smith!), the Texans grabbed Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft. Since then, he’s put up 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns with only five interceptions, all while leading this Texans offense to the divisional round of the playoffs. Whatever happens this weekend, Stroud’s rookie season has been about outstanding.
This week, he’ll see a Ravens team that’s cruising on offense, outscoring teams by an average of 11.9 points per game, most in the NFL. Even though this Ravens team can be beat on the ground — they’re allowing the 14th most rushing yards per game this year — teams have to throw to try to keep up. Half of the Ravens’ games this season have resulted in opposing quarterbacks hitting this line because they’re playing catchup, and this is no ordinary game! Even though Stroud and the Texans have been relying on their running game as a part of this magical run, I think we’ll have to see Stroud more often than not this weekend, especially with Baltimore favored by 9.
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (vs. Chiefs)
Daniel: Last week was just the third time in 18 games that Josh Allen did NOT throw an interception. Instead, he scored four touchdowns and showed everyone why he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the game! That 52-yard touchdown run was a thing of beauty. Classic Allen being a superhero for his team.
Anyway, this week he’ll draw a Chiefs’ defense that he just played in Week 14, which has been dubbed the infamous “Kadarius Toney clearly lined up offside” game. Only 43 days will separate when these two teams last played each, so neither team will have to dive too deep into the memory banks to get hyped for this one. Allen has now thrown an interception in 15 of his 18 games this year. Yes, I know it’s gonna be a cold one in Buffalo on Sunday night, which may limit some of the passing. But let’s be honest: Mahomes just played in the fourth-coldest game on record and Allen is a robot. Not much can slow these guys down. Unless there’s a huge blizzard, I’m banking on a bet that’s hit 15 out of 18 weeks.
Brock Purdy OVER 6.5 rushing yards (vs. Packers)
Liz: While I’m leaning into frozen peach season, Daniel has found this week’s passer props rather pleasing. As with most things, I agree with him. So much so, that I wanted to add a bonus prop. Purdy is by no means a mobile quarterback. However, the Packers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing signal-callers (including a season-high 45 rushing yards to Dak Prescott last week). Given a per game average of 9 rushing yards, 7 yards worth of scrambling seems within reach for Purdy.
TE props
George Kittle OVER 52.5 receiving yards (vs. Packers)
Liz: Kittle figures to be refreshed and ready to rumble after two weeks of R&R. He’ll face a Packers defense that allowed an average of nearly 56 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends over the last four games of the regular season (and over 51 yards per game over the course of 2023). He’s additionally cleared the above line in four of his last five games (while averaging 63.8 receiving yards per contest on the season). Green Bay, undoubtedly, proved to be a winning unit last weekend, but the defense still gave up over 500 yards of offense (including 93 receiving yards to TE Jake Ferguson). Much of that had to do game flow and resting starters. However, the 49ers offense (featuring Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk) is potent enough to keep D-coordinator Joe Barry guessing, which should allow for plenty of big plays via one Stone Cold Kittle.
Sam LaPorta OVER 39.5 receiving yards (vs. Buccaneers)
Liz: From one Iowa standout to another. LaPorta has put together a rookie effort that is equal parts record-breaking and magical. The last two weeks of his first-year campaign, however, have been less than ideal. A hyperextended knee forced him out of Week 18. That was probably part of the reason he recorded a snap share below 80% (his lowest healthy snap share since Week 10) in the wild-card game. While LaPorta found the end zone versus the Rams, he recorded just 14 receiving yards — his lowest receiving total of the year. But I’m anticipating a massive bounce-back this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most receiving yards (an average of over 63 per week) to opposing tight ends over 2023. Given that LaPorta managed 36 receiving yards against the Bucs just six weeks into his professional career, I think he’ll rumble his way to at least four grabs for 42 yards on Sunday.
Travis Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards (at Bills)
Liz: And from fantasy’s next darling to its last. Kelce’s numbers may have dipped this season, but he’s still the TE2 in receiving yards per game, averaging 65.6 per contest. Coming off a solid (not perfect, I saw those two drops, too) seven catch and 71-yard effort, Kelce still has plenty in the tank. He may no longer be Patrick Mahomes‘ most targeted option (have yourself a year, Rashee Rice), but he should be a focal point in a closely contested matchup against a banged-up Bills squad. Additionally, Kelce has cleared the above line in three of his last four meetings versus Buffalo. I’ll take the OVER on 63.5 receiving yards for Jason’s little brother.
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