Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Buffalo Bills will enter Week 18 with a chance to be the No. 2 seed in the AFC or miss the playoffs altogether. The final week of the NFL season is nearly upon us after wrapping up the penultimate week of the regular season, and a ton of playoff implications still hang in the balance. As usual, Week 17 was another packed full of drama, with major upsets shaking up playoff seeding, and teams that appeared out of the postseason now still alive following wins.
Here is my stock up and down report following Sunday’s games:
STOCK UP
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The Ravens should be the Super Bowl favorites after the demolition of the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, just six days after beating the 49ers in San Francisco. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the clear MVP favorite after turning in another outstanding performance in Week 17. He was 18 of 21 for 321 yards and five touchdowns. Unlike previous years when his receivers were unreliable, they continued their upward trend of doing their jobs with some fantastic catch-and-run explosive plays after Lamar put the ball in their bread baskets.
The Ravens defense was stout against the Dolphins’ high-flying offense. The Dolphins were without Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert, but that doesn’t excuse the throws from Tua Tagovailoa that ended up in the hands of Ravens’ defenders. The Ravens mixed up their coverages and sprinkled in some two high zone coverage, and it appeared Tua was confused at various times on Sunday. He threw the ball directly to Baltimore defenders on multiple occasions. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL heading into the postseason and now have the top seed in the AFC conference.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens dominate vs. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Washington Commanders/Chicago Bears draft positions
The Commanders are not any good. They’ve lost seven in a row and nine of 10 games. With one more loss next weekend against a Dallas Cowboys team that will need a win to clinch the NFC East, the Commanders will finish with the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They will be guaranteed an opportunity to change the fortunes of their franchise with the ability to draft either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. When was the last time the Commanders had a true franchise quarterback? Robert Griffin III for a couple of seasons? This is a franchise reset moment and it allows their new owner Josh Harris to completely remake the brand. The Commanders’ coaching job will be highly sought with that draft pick in addition to cap space.
The Bears continued their hot streak to end the season. They beat the Atlanta Falcons to run their record to 7-9 heading into the final weekend of the season. With the Bears owning the Panthers‘ first-round pick due to a trade involving Bryce Young last year, the Bears have clinched having the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft following the Panthers’ loss on Sunday. So the Bears have the best of both worlds right now. They are winning and it doesn’t hurt their draft selection this season. There will be plenty of time to debate the merits of drafting Caleb Williams vs. sticking with Justin Fields, a position the Bears will gladly take.
Should Bears stick with Justin Fields or draft USC QB Caleb Williams?
Playoff-clinching teams
The Kansas City Chiefs won their eighth straight AFC West title after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Chiefs defense allowed 17 first-half points, including seven on a short field after a Patrick Mahomes turnover. But their defense did not allow another point the rest of the game. It’s a Super Bowl-caliber defense. The question, and something we haven’t worried about in the Patrick Mahomes era, is how the offense will play in the postseason. The offense was better Sunday, minus a few drops. Mahomes looked more in rhythm and they moved the ball well. The Chiefs settled for more field goals than they’d like. but 25 offensive points is more than they’ve scored in a bit.
The Los Angeles Rams clinched a playoff spot with their close road win over the New York Giants and a Seattle Seahawks loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Heck of a season for the Rams. They are top-heavy with talent and needed to rely on a younger squad this season to make the postseason. They relied on Matthew Stafford staying mostly healthy, Cooper Kupp shining when he was on the field and the addition of rookie standout Puka Nukua to the offense. Defensively, the Rams are just a solid group. They play well together and don’t make many mistakes. This has been Sean McVay’s best coaching job to date.
‘2024, we’re coming for you baby’ – Kyren Williams after Rams clinched playoff berth
STOCK DOWN
The Eagles hosted the three–win Arizona Cardinals as nearly a two-touchdown favorite. It was rocky, but the Eagles led the Cardinals 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals scored on an eight-play, 77-yard drive to tie the game, then the Eagles added a field goal after recovering a Cardinals onside kick. The Cardinals got the ball back with just over two minutes left in the game needing a touchdown to win and a field goal to tie. It took the Cardinals only seven plays to score a touchdown to win the game.
The Eagles offense has their concerns but they at least score. You can live with that. The Eagles defense… not good. According to Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic, the Eagles had the third-worst defensive performance of any unit this season.
Clearly, that’s not good enough for any sustained postseason success and unfortunately for the Eagles, there’s no easy fix. They need better players at this point. The Eagles’ loss also opened up the NFC East for the Cowboys. A Cowboys win on Sunday against the Commanders will give them the division and the second seed in the NFC, dropping the Eagles down to the fifth spot and a path to the Super Bowl filled with road contests.
Cardinals’ James Conner dives for a game-winning touchdown in upset over Eagles
NFL officiating
Officiating is difficult and on the whole, on-field officials do a better job than you’d ever give them credit for. I’ve long said that I do not blame officiating for a loss (or a win). There are plays to be made in games by either team that would render officiating decisions not as important to winning and losing. My opinion has always been focused on judgment calls like pass interference, holding, roughing the passer, and so on. Those are judgment calls and objective to the humans that are calling them. Sometimes it goes your way and other times it doesn’t
However, my stance on officiating changes when officials error on procedural issues. Those are black and white. Did Lions left tackle Taylor Decker report to the official or not during Saturday’s controversial finish against the Cowboys? Officials should not make those mistakes. It cost the Lions a potential win and a chance at the NFC’s top seed. It also gave the Cowboys a shot at the NFC East and the two seed. It’s a mistake that the NFL office should not tolerate.
Dean Blandino and ‘FOX NFL Kickoff’ crew break down controversial call in Lions-Cowboys
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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