With just one week left in the regular season, several awards markets still remain in doubt. While MVP and Coach of the Year potentially may have been decided last week, almost every other award will come down to Week 18. That includes both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, two markets that seemed over less than a month ago.
MVP
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Favorite: Lamar Jackson (-20000)
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Last week’s favorite: Jackson (-180)
The MVP race has been a roller coaster all season, but it seemed to come to its conclusion last week. Not only did Lamar Jackson beat the Dolphins, he threw for a season-high five touchdowns in a 56-19 rout. Jackson has a chance to be the first quarterback to win MVP despite not ranking in the top 10 in passing yards or passing touchdowns.
Dak Prescott and Josh Allen can both make better statistical arguments, and both can clinch division titles with victories on Sunday while Jackson sits in a meaningless game. However, while Jackson does not fit the typical statistical criteria, each of the last six MVPs were No. 1 seeds. And not only are Jackson and the Ravens the AFC’s top seed, he beat the NFC’s top seed 49ers head-to-head on Christmas night. This race seems essentially over.
Offensive Player of the Year
Christian McCaffrey grew his lead as favorite despite not scoring a touchdown and leaving with a calf injury. He has already been ruled out this week, so his Offensive Player of the Year case is fully written, leading the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,023) and touchdowns (21), two marks that are highly unlikely to be reached by Hill.
Hill needs 248 receiving yards to break the single-season record, which will almost certainly win him this award. However, the odds he does that are longer than +270. If Hill has an extraordinary game and leads the Dolphins to the AFC East title, he has a chance to swing the narrative back towards him. Anything less and McCaffrey probably just wins, especially with no other 49ers in realistic contention for major awards.
Defensive Player of the Year
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Favorite: Myles Garrett (-275)
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Last week’s favorite: Garrett (-160)
The market moved dramatically last Thursday leading into the Jets-Browns game, with Myles Garrett moving from +110 to -160 to win this award. Garrett snapped a streak of five straight games without a sack and moved to -275 after the game. Micah Parsons (+350) and T.J. Watt (+450) are behind them, with Watt’s number having shortened after opening at 10-1 on Sunday night.
Statistically, Garrett has one more sack than Parsons and three fewer than Watt, but the Browns have the best statistical defense in the NFL. Garrett is unlikely to play this week with the Browns having clinched, so Watt and Parsons both have chances to make strong closing arguments, especially Watt.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-900)
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Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-1600)
This award seemed like a wrap prior to C.J. Stroud’s concussion, but Puka Nacua forced his way back into the picture, as he needs only 29 receiving yards to break the NFL rookie record. Stroud is back and has a chance to lead the Texans to the playoffs on Sunday. If the Texans beat the Colts and make the playoffs, it’s hard to see voters ignoring Stroud’s amazing season as a quarterback.
However, a Texans loss and a strong performance from Nacua could make this award very interesting. With little polling data, it is impossible to know if voters will pick the strong quarterback or the record-breaking receiver. A Nacua bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year could be similar to a parlay of Colts moneyline with Nacua receiving props.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Favorite: Jalen Carter (-450)
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Last week’s favorite: Jalen Carter (-10000)
Carter moved from -10000 to -450 in just one week despite recording his sixth sack of the season. Carter never deserved his -10000 price, but no other strong candidates had emerged, thanks in part to an injury to Texans DE Will Anderson. Anderson returned last week and recorded two sacks in just 11 snaps.
Anderson (+320) now has more sacks than Carter, more recency bias than Carter, and a bigger platform this week than his rival as he plays on Saturday night, potentially for the division title. If Anderson performs well in prime time, he could easily steal this award, especially if his snap count grows with better health. Carter will have a chance to respond Sunday in a strong matchup against the Giants, but with one week left, this race seems wide open.
Coach of the Year
Kevin Stefanski became the favorite prior to last week’s game, and after beating the Jets to clinch a playoff spot, Stefanski is now a prohibitive -900 favorite. The Browns are likely to sit players this week, so his Coach of the Year case is already made.
The winning coach in Texans-Colts seems to be the most likely contender. Both Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans enter the week at 10-to-1. A Steichen win would probably be more threatening to Stefanski backers, as he could lead the Colts to a six-win turnaround with a backup quarterback.
Comeback Player of the Year
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Favorite: Damar Hamlin (-135)
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Last week’s favorite: Hamlin (-400)
Damar Hamlin has been the wire-to-wire favorite in this market, coming back from cardiac arrest to return to the NFL this year. Hamlin only has played 17 defensive snaps in five games this season, mostly playing special teams.
Joe Flacco has completed his meteoric rise to challenge Hamlin, as he is now +110. Like Hamlin, Flacco has only played in five games, but he went 4-1 as a starting quarterback with 13 touchdowns in those games. He has a strong case to win. Baker Mayfield (14-1) also can clinch a division title this week, and Matthew Stafford (100-1) already led the Rams to a playoff berth.
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