Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend is here, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for me.
The last three weekends were dreadful for me as the 15-week hot streak I started the season with froze up on me like a cold day in Buffalo.
In Week 18, I was a woeful 1-3, bringing my season record to 52-40-2. But that is neither here nor there.
Much like the teams playing this Wild-Card weekend, the postseason is a chance to begin anew. And when I look at this weekend’s slate of games, I see many opportunities to get back on track.
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The Los Angeles Rams squaring off against the Detroit Lions has me salivating with intrigue over the plethora of storylines. And how can I not be excited about the neophyte, C.J. Stroud, making his playoff debut against the wily veteran arm of Joe Flacco?
And cold weather is sure to play a huge factor in Kansas City and Buffalo, while America’s Team could be in for a dogfight against the Cheeseheads.
How can you not be pumped for this?
So, without further ado, here are my best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend.
Rams @ Lions (8:15 p.m. Sunday, NBC)
Despite the extra juice (-125), I love the Rams here getting the hook.
The Rams are a tricky handicap this year, given no Cooper Kupp early on and no Kyren Williams in the middle of the season. But when those two — combined with Puka Nacua and Matt Stafford — are on the field, the offense has been a machine. They dropped 31 on the Ravens in Baltimore in an OT loss and shredded the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints, as well.
Left for dead after a 3-6 start, the Rams are 7-1 in their last eight, with the lone blemish coming against the Ravens in the rain. Williams, who rested in Week 18, has games of 143 yards, 152 yards, and 158 yards this season and has averaged 5.0 YPC.
The Lions have not given up a 100-yard rusher this season, but they may have to sacrifice defenders in the box to slow the Stafford/Nacua/Kupp triumvirate. We’re talking about a secondary that gave up 411 passing yards to Nick Mullens, a third-string Vikings QB.
And as we’ve talked about all week on the Herd, no coach in the league has spent more time with Jared Goff than Sean McVay. The book has long been out on Goff — he struggles in cold weather and with pressure up the middle — but the chess match of press snap movement and where to send the pressure from on high-leverage plays will be fun to watch.
If you can’t get the 3.5, I’d consider teasing the Rams up to 10 and pairing them with the Bills.
PICK: Rams (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)
Will Jared Goff, Lions get the last laugh against Sean McVay, Rams?
Browns @ Texans (4:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC/Peacock)
Fading the Texans last week was a narrow miss.
The read was correct — the Indianapolis Colts would have to get out of their cover 3 defense (they did), the Texans defense is abysmal (it is), but on the highest leverage play of the game (4th and 1, final minute), a drop cost the Colts a shot at the win.
I lean to the Browns here in a rematch from a few weeks ago, but the bigger edge is on the total, which feels low.
We’ve covered the Browns’ home/road defensive splits since October, and on the season, they are 8-0 against the spread (ATS) to the Over. Jim Schwartz’s defense is heavy on the man-to-man, which coincidentally is what C.J. Stroud struggles with the most.
Of course, the injury to top corner Denzel Ward in practice this week isn’t great news for the Browns … but it could be good for the Over!
The last team with the ball wins?!
PICK: Over 44.5 points scored by both teams combined
Dolphins @ Chiefs (8 p.m. Saturday, Peacock)
Steelers @ Bills (1 p.m. Sunday, CBS)
I do lean toward the favorites covering here, but because of horrendous weather in both games, I’m just going to go with a moneyline parlay on the home teams.
Miami is too injured (five defensive starters out!) to bet on, and there’s no point in boring you with all their futility in cold-weather games. The numbers say it all: 0-9 straight up, 2-7 ATS in games under 40 degrees since 2017. One of those covers was last January in Buffalo. This one could be as cold as -20 degrees wind chill!
The big issue with the Chiefs covering -4.5 is … if Travis Kelce is no longer a superstar and receivers can’t get separation, how dangerous is this offense? Winning by three wouldn’t surprise me.
The biggest issue with the Bills is the number here. Double digits? They haven’t covered a double-digit spread in their last nine games.
Josh Allen is just 2-6 ATS in the playoffs, including 0-2 last year. I can see the Bills playing with their food and not getting separation, and then an 8-minute run-heavy drive to cap the game and not cover the spread.
The Steelers are 1-10 without T.J. Watt.
I would look closely at Josh Allen’s rushing stats.
PICK: Chiefs and Bills ML parlay
Bills double-digit favorites over Steelers in Super Wild Card Weekend
Packers @ Cowboys (4:30 p.m. Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
This is the toughest game to pick, as the range of outcomes include the great-at-home Cowboys by 10+ or the plucky Packers winning outright.
We know first-time playoff QBs facing QBs who have appeared in the playoffs are 17-35-1 dating back to 2002. Of course, three of them covered last year in the Wild-Card round.
You can’t put a number on this, but when Jerry Jones doesn’t give Mike McCarthy a vote of confidence, and suddenly Dallas is in a one-score game in the fourth quarter … how tight does McCarthy get with the play-calling?
What happens if the finally healthy Jaire Alexander returns to his old form and plays fantastic against Ceedee Lamb?
Where does Dallas go for offense?
PICK: Packers (+7.5, -125) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points (or win outright)
Will Jordan Love, Packers SPOIL Dak Prescott, Cowboys’ playoff hopes?
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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