Packers-49ers odds, betting action report: ‘We need the 49ers in all ways’

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

When it comes to NFL betting, the public masses are often influenced by recency bias. A team looks awesome one week, so they jump on that team the following week.

To an extent, a day out from kickoff, that’s happening with the Green Bay Packers, who are 10-point road underdogs vs. the San Francisco 49ers.

“We need the 49ers in all ways,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook, noting the Packers are getting the bulk of point-spread play and a much heavier majority of moneyline action. “It’s clear the public saw Jordan Love’s performance last week and feels like 10 points is too much. We are in the rare position of needing both favorites today.”

So bettors are banking on a second straight Green Bay upset. But there’s more than the moneyline to this prime-time Saturday night showdown on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon helps break down where betting on Packers vs. 49ers odds stands and where he believes it’s heading by 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday.

Packers Now, Niners Later?

The SuperBook opened San Francisco as a 9.5-point home favorite Sunday night. Within about 20 minutes, the 49ers jumped to -10. On Tuesday morning, San Fran returned to -9.5 and remained there as of Wednesday night.

As of Saturday morning, S.F. is back at -10, and the moneyline is S.F. -520.

“Ticket count is about the same, but there’s more money on Packers spread. We took some sharp money on Packers +10,” Degnon said Wednesday. “And we’ve got that moneyline love for the Packers, which isn’t a surprise. The Niners [were] -420. The public isn’t going to bet that.”

Indeed, the masses much preferred taking Packers moneyline at +350 — where a $100 bet wins $350, for a $450 total payout — than laying -420 on the Niners moneyline — where it takes a $420 bet to win $100, for a $520 total payout.

However, Degnon is speaking specifically to straight bets. Based on those wagers at the moment, The SuperBook would be rooting for San Francisco. But as Saturday’s kickoff approaches, moneyline parlay and teaser play will begin to stack up. And that action will land heavily on the Super Bowl favorite 49ers.

“I’m sure at some point, we’ll get the 49ers love. The public will come in later in the week for the 49ers, whether it’s moneyline parlays or teasers,” Degnon said Wednesday. “All it takes is one or two big parlay tickets, and it’ll change our need. Just killing the parlays would be beneficial for us.”

CANT-LOSE WEEKEND: 49ers favorites vs. Packers in the NFC Divisional Round

The Sharp Side

Sometimes, the best bets are the ones you don’t make. Professional bettor Randy McKay doesn’t yet have a play on the Packers-49ers tilt. And he’s likely to keep it that way.

But he just might get involved if the spread returns to double digits.

“I would maybe play the underdog if it gets back to 10,” McKay said, noting he would love to see the number get to 49ers -10.5 or -11, which would almost certainly have him on the Packers. “Hopefully, it gets over 10. And if it’s a rainy game, that would help the ‘dog.”

Another betting option to watch is the total, which currently sits at 50.5.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.