In poring over NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds, the risk room at Caesars Sports expects some sort of need in all the games. But in particular, the first game on Sunday’s slate stands out: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys.
And not just because of the history between these storied franchises, but because of a bet made on Sept. 10, in the hours before Dallas’ first game this season, a 40-0 road rout of the New York Giants.
A bettor dropped $100,000 on the Cowboys +1600 to win the Super Bowl. That represents a potential profit for the bettor — and liability for the bookmaker — of $1.6 million. So, as the playoffs begin, that wager looms large.
“The Cowboys are our third-largest liability for the Super Bowl at this point,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said Wednesday. “The game itself will no doubt be a large decision, as well.”
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Let’s dive into all of the action on the big Packers-Cowboys showdown, which kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports app.
How ‘bout Them Cowboys?
At midweek, the public betting masses were already showing strong support for the Cowboys. At Caesars, point-spread tickets and money were in the 2/1 range on Dallas, which was a 7.5-point favorite as of Thursday morning. This number currently sits at Cowboys -7.
And the moneyline was far more lopsided, even though bettors have to lay -365 on the Cowboys. That means it takes a $365 bet to profit $100 for a $465 total payout. Moneyline ticket count was almost 6/1, and moneyline dollars are nearly 9/1 on Dallas.
Pullen indicated that bettors are backing the Cowboys in all ways.
“Most parlays and teasers will likely be on Dallas,” Pullen said Thursday, noting that includes moneyline parlays. “So a Packers win will certainly be one that is good for us.”
And, as of Sunday morning, money continues to pour in on “America’s Team.”
“There’s a landslide of money on Dallas,” said Zachary Lucas, TwinSpires Sportsbook director of retail sports. “We’re up to our neck in liability.”
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Newby at QB
Under circumstances that have existed since the 1990s — first with Brett Favre, then with Aaron Rodgers — Caesars would likely feel pretty good about its chances with the Packers. But it’s now the Jordan Love era.
The fourth-year quarterback just finished up his first regular season as a starter, and his seventh-seeded Packers travel to face a Cowboys outfit that dominated at home this season. No. 2 seed Dallas went 8-0 straight up (SU) and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) at AT&T Stadium.
“The Packers have historically been an enticing underdog for the public, but that was in the Aaron Rodgers era,” Pullen said. “So we’ll see if the love will continue with Jordan Love.”
Regardless of which team advances, oddsmakers and bettors expect some scoring. Caesars has the total at 50.5, the second-highest of the six games on the Wild Card Weekend odds board. At midweek, the Over is getting a modest majority 53% of tickets but a much more substantial 84% of the money.
Only the L.A. Rams–Detroit Lions matchup has a higher total, at 51.5.
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Super Bowl Big Bet
As for that $100,000 Super Bowl wager, the customer certainly got far better odds than what are now available. Caesars Sports has the Cowboys as the +700 fourth choice among the 14 remaining teams on the Super Bowl odds board.
The San Francisco 49ers are favored at +205, followed by the Baltimore Ravens at +320. The surging Buffalo Bills are third at +650.
Dallas, as noted above, is the third-largest liability for Caesars. Pullen said Buffalo is the largest liability for the book, followed by San Francisco.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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