Which NFC South coaches survive the NFL’s worst division this season?

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Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

The NFC South has been the worst division in the NFL this season, and while three teams are still in play to win the division, Carolina has already fired Frank Reich and the other three head coaches are in some level of jeopardy if they lose this weekend.

The Bucs‘ Todd Bowles and the Saints‘ Dennis Allen seek victories Sunday that would give them winning records for the first time in two years at their current position, and the Falcons‘ Arthur Smith has already locked up a losing record for the third year in a row.

That begs a question: How many losing seasons do today’s NFL teams tolerate from a head coach at the start of his tenure?

In the past decade, very few coaches have lasted long enough to contribute to a case study on those who lose three years in a row to start a new job. More often than not, coaches are fired with any sustained losing — since 2014, nine have been fired after or during a single losing season, another eight fired after or during two losing seasons, and six fired during or after three losing seasons.

That’s two-thirds of the league hiring coaches who never see a single winning record.

The exceptions making it to Year 4 aren’t exactly sales pitches for patience: Gus Bradley, given a fourth year by the Jaguars, was fired with a 2-12 record during that season; Jeff Fisher made it to a fifth losing season before he was fired by the Rams, and Jon Gruden was fired during his fourth year with the Raiders (unrelated to his record). The Jets‘ Robert Saleh is expected back next year despite three straight losing seasons, with the large asterisk of Aaron Rodgers missing almost all of this season with an Achilles injury.

To find a recent model for success for a coach without a winning record in his first three seasons, the best might be the Cowboys‘ Jason Garrett, who went exactly 8-8 in each of his first three seasons, then won division titles in three of his next five years in Dallas.

There are individual and complicated contexts for Bowles, Allen and Smith. Tampa Bay came into this year with much lower expectations, with $79 million in cap space devoted to “dead money” from old contracts, including $35 million for the retired Tom Brady, and yet they’ve exceeded most outside expectations to get to 8-8 and match last year’s win total.

At the same time, the Bucs were sitting pretty last week, knowing one win in their last two games would clinch a third straight division title. They lost at home to the Saints, trailing 20-0 in the fourth quarter, and if they lose this Sunday to the 2-14 Panthers, it might be seen as enough of a final collapse to burn through whatever leeway Bowles had earned this season in resetting fans’ hopes. He could become the first coach in the franchise’s 48-year history to win the division in each of his first two years, but if there’s another early exit from the postseason, he would still have some fans in Tampa clamoring for a change.

The Falcons had hoped to end a six-year playoff drought with a talented offense and having spent big in free agency to upgrade their defense, but if they lose on the road in New Orleans, Smith will have the stagnation of a third straight 7-10 season. The Falcons have managed to go 2-6 against teams with losing records this season, including four losses to teams with five wins or fewer. The rest of the division, even including the Panthers, has only one such loss.

Falcons owner Arthur Blank is seen as a patient man and the team can return largely intact for 2024, but do they think Smith is the choice to try with another new quarterback? Would a splash hire generate an excitement the team has been unable to capture since moving on from stars like Matt Ryan and Julio Jones?

New Orleans has actually taken a step forward, from 7-10 last year to 8-8, and the Saints could still win the division or make a wild card with a home win against the Falcons. They’ll have a difficult offseason because they’re already $87 million over the projected salary cap, requiring extensive restructuring, cuts and potentially trades, and those financial limitations could make it hard for them to land a top coaching candidate with limited flexibility to bring in new players or move on from bad contracts. Could that help Allen stick around, even if he loses Sunday to finish a season sweep at the hands of the rival Falcons?

By Sunday night, the division could have two playoff teams, or it could again have no teams with a winning record — that’s never happened to any division two years in a row in league history. The division yielded a Super Bowl champion just three years ago, but the struggles over the past two seasons might give owners confidence that the right hire could have a quick path to success, a division title and the coveted revenue of a home playoff game that comes with that.

It could be that Carolina is the only team searching for a new coach next week, or it could be that the division champ is the only coach spared after varying degrees of disappointment all over the rest of the division. For the Bucs, Saints and Falcons, there could be much more than just a playoff berth hanging in the balance on Sunday afternoon.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.