Why Packers’ Jordan Love has millions on the line vs. Bears

Rob Demovsky, ESPN Staff WriterJan 4, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
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GREEN BAY, Wis. — If Jordan Love doesn’t end up with a new contract before next season, the Green Bay Packers quarterback at least has some assurances that his accomplishments in his first season as the starter will pay off.

That payoff, however, will be larger if the Packers (8-8) beat the Chicago Bears (7-9) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), because it would secure a playoff spot.

That would trigger a group of escalators that could increase Love’s base salary for the 2024 season by as much as $4 million, according to a source with access to the contract. He has another possible $5 million in escalators — some of which he has already hit, some he still could hit, and at least one he won’t hit — that are detailed below.

If the Packers make the playoffs, Love’s 2024 salary will increase by $500,000. If they win a playoff game, he will get another $500,000 bump. A win in the NFC Championship Game would be worth another $1 million. Another $1 million would come with a Super Bowl win. Love has yet another $1 million bonus if he reaches any of the following categories: 10 wins (which he won’t hit), making the playoffs, or a top-10 ranking in passer rating and top 10-ranking in touchdown passes. (All of those are contingent on Love playing 65% of the regular-season offensive snaps, which he will.)

The Packers built escalators into the contract extension Love signed in May, a deal that was done in lieu of the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. That deal included an $8,788,655 signing bonus and gave him a base salary of $5.5 million plus a $500,000 offseason workout bonus for the 2024 season.

No matter what Love does Sunday against the Bears, barring a catastrophic injury, he has shown enough to convince the Packers that he should be their quarterback in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

“I really think the sky’s the limit for him,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said after Love reached the 30-touchdown mark in Sunday’s win at the Minnesota Vikings.

Love became one of only four quarterbacks in Packers history with a 30-touchdown season.

“He’s just showing a glimpse of what he can ultimately be,” LaFleur added. “He’s been more consistent as the season’s progressed with a young group around him. I think the guys around him have performed at a higher level. But, all in all, yeah, to see the progress that our offense has made — especially when we were going back and look at the tape [from the first Vikings game on Oct. 29], I was kind of cautiously optimistic in terms of how we performed the first time we played these guys to where we are now.”

If the Packers and Love want to do a new deal, it will have to come after May 3. That’s the date of his 2023 extension, and NFL rules state that contracts cannot be extended twice within 12 months.

Three different NFL sources — one with an NFL team and two with player agencies — had differing opinions on what a new deal would look like for Love, which illustrates the unusual situation of having to pay a quarterback who sat for the first three years of his NFL career and then excelled in his first season as the starter.

One agent source said it should be in the range of $30 million per year with option bonuses that would provide protection for Love and the team.

“If he balls out, he gets paid,” the source said. “If not, the team can walk.”

Another source from the agent side of the business estimated a deal would pay Love “well above $40 million,” suggesting that it could come in somewhere in the $45 million to $50 million range.

“Everybody has to be above Daniel Jones,” the source said, referring to the four-year, $160 million deal the New York Giants gave him last offseason.

A high-ranking scout for a team that signed a quarterback to a massive contract extension within the past two years landed in between the two agent sources, saying it should be just below $35 million per year.

“The franchise tag [will be] $35 million,” he said. “I’m sure that’s where the agent starts, but it shouldn’t be that [high].”

Because Love can’t do his new deal until May, he will have the luxury of seeing where deals come in for impending free agent quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins.

That the Packers are even in position to make the playoffs is in large part due to Love’s progression. Since Week 11, among all quarterbacks with at least 125 pass attempts over that stretch, Love ranks first in QBR (75), total touchdowns (18) and touchdowns-to-interception ratio (16-to-1).

In the meantime, here are the escalators Love has hit and those he could hit that would increase his current 2024 base salary:

He has already reached the playing-time escalator of $500,000 for taking part in at least 65% of the Packers’ offensive plays this season.
He also will satisfy the playing time/individual performance escalator of $500,000 for ranking in the top 10 in touchdown passes (currently third). He also could get another $500,000 each for ranking in the top 10 in total passing yards (currently 10th) and the top 10 in passer rating (currently 12th). Those would total an additional $1.5 million. He will miss out on $500,000 for ranking in the top 10 in completion percentage (currently 23rd). All of those were contingent on 65% playing time and at least 224 pass attempts, which he has met.
He also will hit another playing time/individual performance escalator of $1.5 million — $500,000 for ranking in the top 16 of one of those major statistical categories, $500,000 for ranking in the top 16 in two of them and $500,000 for ranking in the top 16 in three of them.
He missed out on another $1 million for not making the Pro Bowl in the initial voting (as a starter or backup).