Sure, the Super Bowl has come and gone, signaling the end of another football season. But remember, NFL betting dominates the American sports wagering landscape.
Bookmakers aren’t just sitting around waiting for the preseason. NFL Draft odds have been on the board for months already. And at the moment, there’s almost no debate about who’s going No. 1 overall on April 25.
“Caleb Williams is a prohibitive favorite,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sports.
How prohibitive? Well, at the moment, it would take a $100 bet to win just $10.
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Pullen serves up NFL Draft odds and insights, including on whether the USC quarterback ends up with the Chicago Bears.
Year-Round Sport
Just two weeks into the 2023-24 season, Caesars posted odds on who would be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. So this offseason event has already been bet into for five-plus months.
“The NFL season never really ends,” Pullen said.
On Sept. 15, Williams opened as an already solid -400 favorite to be taken No. 1 overall. North Carolina QB Drake Maye was the +400 second choice, meaning a $100 bet would profit $400 for a $500 total payout.
Then the odds stretched out to +1500 for third choice Marvin Harrison Jr., the standout wideout from Ohio State.
Those players remain 1-2-3 in NFL Draft odds, but Williams is now out to a -1000 favorite. Maye is +700, while Harrison has seen his odds improve to +1000. Still, as Pullen noted, Williams is a prohibitive favorite.
But Chicago already has a young QB in Justin Fields. Will the Bears part ways with Fields and select Williams? Will they trade away the No. 1 pick? And if so, will the new holder of that pick go for Williams or address other needs? The USC QB seems a slam dunk at the moment, but a lot can change between now and April 25.
“Trades could happen,” Pullen said. “It’s all about paying attention and watching the bets come in. The NFL Draft is all info-based. It’s extremely difficult to book and extremely difficult for us to win on.”
Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in Joel Klatt’s top 5 QBs in 2024 NFL Draft
Sending Signals
An example of the challenges oddsmakers face showed up in the past few days.
“Fields unfollowed the Bears on Instagram and started following all the Falcons players. That affects things,” Pullen said.
While that news didn’t change Caesars’ odds yet, the risk room still has to give close scrutiny to such info, and to which players are drawing bets and when. As Pullen says each year, the NFL Draft — being extremely information-based — is a sharp bettors’ market.
“You see a few bets start trickling in, and it doesn’t take much to raise our eyebrows and say, ‘We have to take a look at this.’ We’re trying to get a little bit into the front offices’ heads, and sometimes that’s not possible,” Pullen said.
Caleb Williams & Marvin Harrison Jr. in RJ Young’s top 1-5 players in the 2024 NFL Draft
Show Me The Money
All that noted, where have bettors’ dollars gone so far in the No. 1 pick odds market?
“Williams has seen some money. But our biggest liability is with Marvin Harrison Jr.,” Pullen said. “A lot of times, people take a shot somewhere else.”
Meaning: People don’t want to bet $100 to win 10 bucks. They’d rather wager $100 to win $1,000, as the case would currently be if Harrison goes No. 1 overall. Better still, some of those backing Harrison likely got in at the opening +1500 odds for an even larger potential payout.
Assuming Williams goes No. 1, though, then the NFL Draft odds party really gets going.
“That’s where it starts getting interesting. Who’s gonna be the second pick or the third pick?” Pullen said, noting Caesars will soon roll out prop bets on the No. 2 and 3 overall picks and beyond.
Oddsmakers will then work their way toward a robust menu that includes player position markets — first receiver selected, first offensive lineman selected, etc. — Over/Under on when specific players are drafted and more.
But with regard to those top few selections, if the Bears decide to keep Fields and trade the pick, then the calculus could quickly shift should the new holder of the No. 1 pick not need a quarterback.
“That’ll upset everything,” Pullen said. “It’s one move, but it’s not just one market affected. There’s gonna be multiple markets affected. The NFL Draft is a totally different animal.”
Top Ten List
Following are the current top-10 players in Caesars Sports’ NFL Draft No. 1 overall pick market:
- 1. QB Caleb Williams -1000
- 2. QB Drake Maye +700
- 3. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. +1000
- 4. QB Jayden Daniels +1400
- 5. QB Michael Penix Jr. +4000
- 6. OT Joe Alt +8000
- 7. OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu +8000
- 8. DT Michael Hall Jr. +10000 (100/1)
- 9. DE Jared Verse +10000 (100/1)
- 10. QB Bo Nix +10000 (100/1)
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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