Super Bowl LVIII is finally here, and bettors are enthusiastic about diving into wagers for the huge showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs — led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid — are currently 2-point underdogs to the Niners. However, this has become a somewhat familiar spot for Kansas City & Co., as this makes the third consecutive game that books have the Chiefs as ‘dogs in the fight.
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San Francisco, on the other hand, was favored in its two previous matchups against Green Bay and Detroit. The Niners eked out wins in both while failing to cover. So bettors eyeing the 2-point spread in this contest might want to keep that in mind.
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Now that the Big Game is here, bettors are focused on the best ways to bet the matchup beyond the usual spread, moneyline and point total.
So we turned to our analysts to find out how they’re wagering on the player prop market.
Our experts — Chris “The Bear” Fallica, Sam “Sammy P” Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz, Jason McIntyre and Will Hill — are here to help.
Let’s dive into their picks.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica
Patrick Mahomes — Over/Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts
There are multiple avenues for Mahomes’ rush attempts going Over.
If the Chiefs are winning late, there’s a real good chance we’ll get some kneel downs to help the cause. But during the run of play, Kansas City’s offense may see a bunch of Mahomes scrambles if his offensive line is struggling or if his wide receivers can’t get open.
He’s gone over this total in each of his past two games and remember last year — despite being hobbled — the biggest play of Super Bowl LVII was a Mahomes scramble. The bigger the game, the more we see Mahomes use his legs.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts
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Geoff Schwartz
Isiah Pacheco — Longest Rush Over/Under 15.5 yards
The 49ers have a poor run defense. They are ranked 26th in expected points added for their rushing defense, and in the last five games in which their starters have played, they’ve been gashed.
San Fran has allowed six running backs to have at least one 16-yard rush in their last five games.
I’d love to wager on Pacheco’s overall rushing props, but I never expect Andy Reid to have a game plan where the Chiefs rush the ball a bunch. So I’m opting for Pacheco to have a long gain in this game.
Worth mentioning is that Pacheco leads the NFL in rushing yards over the last two postseasons.
PICK: Pacheco longest rush Over 15.5 yards
Sammy P
Kyle Juszczyk — Over/Under 3.5 Receiving Yards
Kansas City’s secondary is outstanding and the defensive front tends to get pressure with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. This is perfect for a fullback like Juszczyk, who will flare out for a few opportunities after blocking and chipping. As a member of the Niners, Juszczyk has 11 targets in three games against the Chiefs, and he caught eight for 111 yards. Not too shabby.
If he catches one pass, this is probably a winner.
PICK: Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards
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Will Hill
Super Bowl MVP — Deebo Samuel
Super Bowl MVP is primarily, but not exclusively, a quarterback award. It’s that way in the regular season, too. However, twice in the last five years, a wide receiver has taken home the trophy.
Julian Edelman won the award for his performance against the Los Angeles Rams in 2018, and Cooper Kupp was voted MVP in 2021 in a victory against the Cincinnati Bengals.
At 20-1, Deebo Samuel is worth a shot because not only is he a dynamic receiver, but he has over 1000 career rushing yards as well as 19 rushing touchdowns — including five this year.
The running ability is so key here because it offers the possibility that Samuel will not only fill up the stat sheet but do so while detaching that production from the quarterback who the voters are usually inclined to give this award to.
A big day running and catching the ball, in addition to perhaps a couple of touchdowns, and this 20-1 long shot has a chance of getting to the window.
PICK: Deebo Samuel (+2000) to win Super Bowl MVP
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