Jaguars profess faith in Trevor Lawrence; what does that mean for extension talks?

Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

Amid questions about Trevor Lawrence‘s standing with the Jaguars, in the wake of the disappointing season he just had, coach Doug Pederson on Tuesday reiterated that Jacksonville still views him as its quarterback.

The former No. 1 overall pick is eligible for a second contract this offseason.

“I’m excited for the future with Trevor,” Pederson said at the NFL Scouting Combine. “He’s excited.”

That shouldn’t change how the Jags approach his looming extension, though.

The team’s best course of action is still to pick up the fifth-year option in his rookie contract by the May 2 deadline — slated to be a $25.6 million fully guaranteed salary for Lawrence in 2025, as he has met the playtime criterion — and revisit extension talks next offseason.

Paying Lawrence big bucks now could be devastating long-term for Jacksonville, which can’t yet be certain he’s a true franchise quarterback, considering his 2023 regression. Lawrence’s numbers dropped from the previous year in completion rate (down to 65.6% from 66.3%), passing yards (4,016 last season; 4,113 in 2022), passing touchdowns (21 last season; 25 in 2022), interceptions (14 last season; 8 in 2022), passer rating (88.5 last season; 95.2 in 2022) and EPA per dropback (-.09 last season; 0.11 in 2022). He also had 21 turnovers last season, third-worst in the league.

That’s also why waiting a year is probably in the best interest for Lawrence, too. With a strong 2024, he would put himself right back into the conversation of a second contract at or near the top of the quarterback market. Signing a deal now could hurt his earning potential for the life of his NFL career.

So, regardless of how you look at it, Jacksonville shouldn’t be pressed into extending Lawrence over the next few months.

And even in the way Pederson has talked about Lawrence, even in backing him, it doesn’t sound like the Jags should be on the brink of paying the former No. 1 overall pick.

At his end-of-season press conference, Pederson said the No. 1 thing the QB needs to clean up is his propensity for turnovers (he has 60 giveaways since entering the league in 2021, most in the league in that span). On Tuesday, Pederson added that Lawrence’s next step is “continuing to understand our offense.” He wants Lawrence to speak up more, to take ownership of the unit.

The totality of that nitpicking of a soon-to-be fourth-year quarterback does not indicate that Jacksonville is ready to pay him like a franchise quarterback.

“Just understanding game situations,” Pederson continued on what Lawrence needs to improve. “Managing the game in a certain way at certain times throughout the course of the game. Those are all areas that we can continue as a staff to assist him and help him get to where we want to be.”

Maybe Lawrence’s play tells us something different at this time next year. Maybe he becomes what we all expected after his breakout 2022 season.

Better offensive-line play would go a long way to helping that cause.

Center Luke Fortner struggled and the left side of the line was a revolving door in 2023, hurting the run game (the Jaguars ranked 24th in rushing offense last season) and Lawrence’s protection. He suffered shoulder, knee and ankle injuries this past season, as well as a concussion. He was sidelined for Week 17 against the Panthers, the first time he missed a game in his NFL career.

“We didn’t have consistency. We didn’t have continuity. That affects five guys upfront,” Pederson said. “That’s where we have to get back to, but we can also help them as coaches and prepare them better. And I know we will be starting this offseason.”

And don’t get it twisted: The Jaguars still have faith in Lawrence.

“I don’t get into the contract stuff — I leave that for Trent [Baalke] and the agents and stuff — but I just know that our guy is the right guy,” Pederson said. “He’s got the right demeanor. He’s got the right leadership. It’s our job as coaches to make sure he takes that next step.

“This will be another big offseason for him and his development and his growth,” he added. “By no means is he where he wants to be or where we want him to be, but really looking forward to working with Trevor.”

There’s no reason for the Jaguars to commit to more than the fifth-year option at this point, though.

Pederson’s public messages of support for Lawrence indirectly say the same thing.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.