NFL scouts and executives predict Saquon Barkley’s next deal

Jordan Raanan, ESPN Staff WriterMar 10, 2024, 06:00 AM ET
Close

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — There will be no more squabbles about Saquon Barkley‘s value after this week. The running back officially hits the free-agent market Monday, after six seasons with the New York Giants.

The general consensus from more than a dozen general managers, executives, coaches, scouts and agents surveyed at the combine was that Barkley’s worth is in the range of $10 million per year as a free agent.

One general manager thought the running back market would crater for a second straight year and be in the $8 million range, while an agent with recent experience with a running back thought Barkley’s name value would get him $12-14 million per season. Those were the high and low estimates, but most thought somewhere around three years and $30 million.

“He’ll be fighting with [Josh] Jacobs and [Derrick] Henry to be the top-paid running back [in free agency],” an executive said.

Barkley, a two-time Pro Bowl running back, will be one of the more intriguing names on this year’s market. He’s 27 years old and coming off a season where he rushed for 962 yards and six touchdowns, but at least some of the disappointing production has to be attributed to a sub-par supporting cast in New York.

The Giants’ offensive line ranked 31st in run block win rate last season, just 0.1% ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the bottom spot.

“If he was in San Francisco, he would be Christian McCaffrey,” one pro personnel director said. “He hasn’t had an offensive line, ever, in New York.”

The belief is there is still enough shine left in Barkley’s game that at least one team will be willing to stretch into double-digits for his services. Undoubtedly, there will be interest in landing what most seem to think is the top running back available.

The Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears are believed to be serious suitors. The rival Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys have interest, but aren’t expected to reach Barkley’s price point. Still, they shouldn’t be completely counted out because they are, at the very least, involved in the running back market.

The Houston Texans are also rumored to have interest.

The running back market could be tricky because this is a rather strong free agent running back class. Barkley is joined by Jacobs, Henry, Dallas’ Tony Pollard, Philadelphia’s D’Andre Swift and the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler. There is depth behind them, as well, including names like Zack Moss, Devin Singletary and Alexander Mattison, who could interest the Giants at a much more respectable price.

“I do know there’s a lot of backs that are available this year,” Las Vegas Raiders general manager Tom Telesco said at the NFLs scouting combine last week. “So, I guess it remains to be seen what other people think, but the talent pool at that position in free agency is relatively high.”

This played heavily into the Giants’ decision to not use the franchise tag on Barkley for a second straight year, even though he’s their best offensive weapon. They seem to believe that it would make more sense financially to sign a mid-range running back and add another in the draft.

If Barkley does receive an offer in the $10 million range, it doesn’t seem that the Giants would be willing to match, even if they’re provided the opportunity.

“They just don’t see the value in investing $10 million in a running back,” according to a league source.

Of course, the Giants did offer Barkley more than $10 million per season last year. So anything is possible, especially if it’s the Eagles or Cowboys who make a run at him.

Barkley’s value to the Giants is undeniable.

“I wouldn’t say his value has changed, especially in the organization,” general manager Joe Schoen said recently. “He’s a captain, he’s a leader, he’s a hard worker. I think the world of Saquon and I still think he can play. So, my value for Saquon really hasn’t changed.

“Unfortunately, throughout the process, starting back in November of 2022, we weren’t able to come to an agreement in terms of where we both thought a deal made sense. So, we’ll circle back again.”

Barkley has talked about creating a legacy with the Giants and wanting to have a post-playing career similar to Eli Manning and Michael Strahan. But leaving New York could mean a better chance to win. The Giants look like a team in a rebuild.

If Barkley gets offered more money elsewhere from a team that is ready to compete, he’s likely gone. And the Giants don’t seem willing to stop him. It’s just a matter of how much another team is willing to pay.