Where are great NFL QBs picked? Analyzing 54 years of history by draft position

FOX Sports Research

As the NFL Draft nears, teams are approaching a lottery of sorts. While every organization’s front office and coaching staff will spend countless hours evaluating prospects, there is an element of unpredictability to every pick. That’s especially true at quarterback.

While we all love an underdog story, the later a QB is drafted, the less likely that athlete will accomplish the dream of becoming a franchise QB.

Sure, there are stories like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and, obviously, Tom Brady, being mid- to late-round success stories. But for every Purdy or Brady, you’ll find dozens in the mold of Kevin O’Connell, Rohan Davey or Cardale Jones — players who never materialized as above-average or even average starters in the league and washed out as quickly as they entered pro football.

Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, well over 500 different quarterbacks have been selected in the NFL Draft.

The chances of a quarterback making even one All-Pro first team is just 4.6%; a 1:25 shot. However, that chance more than doubles when selecting a signal-caller in the first round (9.4%) and rises to 11.9% if the player is selected in the top five.

Think about that.

If you are taking a quarterback, and you determine there is one available in the top five who fits your criteria, you have turned your chance of landing one of the top passers in the game from a Hail Mary to a long-third down conversion. It’s still tough, but there is a much higher probability.

Not every quarterback is going to be an All-Pro. And failing to achieve that doesn’t mean you aren’t a franchise quarterback. So let’s lower the standard to Pro Bowlers.

(Note: Each number in the chart is per player. A player who has made one Pro Bowl counts the same as one who made five, the same regarding All-Pro players.)

Since 1970, there is about a one-in-five shot that any drafted QB will become a Pro Bowler. This is a much more digestible and positive number that should give fans more hope in their draft picks. Narrow that down, though, and the number soars. The odds of drafting a Pro Bowl QB in the first round since 1970 are 45.7% — and it increases at the top of the draft.

QBs selected in the top five have been named to at least one Pro Bowl in 61.2% of cases.

Context is important here. For every year like 2020, when there were four Pro Bowl caliber QBs taken in the first round, (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love), there are several like 2013 when just one quarterback went in the top half of the first round (EJ Manuel). We know how that ended up.

So let’s flip the narrative. Since the merger, there have been 428 quarterbacks drafted outside the first round. Just 57 of them have reached at least one Pro Bowl — a 13.3% rate. That is not a horrible number, but as you go on in the draft, that number shrinks dramatically. For instance, there has been just one Pro Bowl quarterback taken in the fifth round since 1970 — Mark Brunell — who was solid for the bulk of his career but ended up as a journeyman, ultimately playing for five different squads.

Of course, numbers do change over time. Trends evolve, and supposedly we have more ways to test and predict talent than ever before, so the process should be smoother for mining late-round talent at the most important position in all sports. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story — it has actually become harder to find a quarterback overall, but specifically in the later rounds.

(Note: Each number in the chart is per player. A player who has made one Pro Bowl counts the same as one who made five, the same regarding All-Pro players.)

Since 2000, the chance of drafting a Pro Bowl quarterback in rounds 2-7 is as low as it’s been since 1970. The odds dip to just 12.1%, with the odds of finding that golden ticket, the first-team All-Pro, just 1.5%. The chance of finding a Pro Bowler or All-Pro in the first round is 44.2% and 7%, respectively — a jump of approximately four times in each case.

That is the difference between a team being back at the top of the draft again, or potentially having the most important position in sports settled for the next decade. When it comes down to drafting a quarterback, jump as high as you can because, in the end, the odds are in your favor.