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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
Let’s put the Draft Day Predictor to work for us.
For the uninitiated, the Draft Day Predictor is a probabilistic forecast of when players will be selected in the NFL draft, based on expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs. It provides the range of outcomes for individual prospects and the chance a certain player will be available or selected at a specific pick. This all makes it useful for teams in the draft, fans following along and … NFL draft bettors.
We can compare the Predictor’s outputs to props for player over/unders and specific players at specific picks, and we will. We also simulate the draft many times using the Predictor to answer multi-conditional props, such as the number of cornerbacks drafted in the first round (this is where it really shines). So, a week out from the draft, let’s take a look at the Predictor’s betting takes.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State) to be second WR drafted (+500)
The Predictor certainly agrees with consensus that Harrison is the favorite to go first among wide receivers. But how sure are we? ESPN analyst Louis Riddick recently wrote that “many evaluators” believe Malik Nabers is the best receiver in the class. Who is to say those evaluators aren’t in the building for, say, the Cardinals, Chargers or Giants and wouldn’t choose the LSU receiver first?
The Predictor gives Harrison a 36% chance (+178) to be the second receiver selected. This is a better bet, in the Predictor’s mind, than Nabers to be the first WR selected at +350.
WR Rome Odunze (Washington) to be drafted at No. 8 (+600)
The Predictor has a strong take here, giving Odunze a 30% chance (+233) to be the pick at No. 8, a major divergence from the market. And I have to say, this bet matches my intuition as well, making it one of my very favorite draft bets out there.
The general belief is that the Falcons will go defense first, but I’m not sure I buy that. In order to get to the Super Bowl with Kirk Cousins, the Falcons need multiple high-end pass-catchers around him. Right now, they have only one: Drake London. Darnell Mooney is a fine No. 3, but Kyle Pitts hasn’t panned out, and so this is a team with a need at receiver. Odunze fits the bill — and with four QBs likely gone by this point in the draft — there is a 78% chance Odunze is still on the board at No. 8, per the Draft Day Predictor.
Plus, Atlanta is a potential trade-down team. Remember, any team can draft Odunze at No. 8 for this bet to cash. It doesn’t have to be the Falcons.
TE Brock Bowers (Georgia) draft position under 12.5 (-125)
Bowers has been connected to the Jets at No. 10 with +130 odds that are too rich for the Predictor (34%). But because the Predictor is more bullish on Bowers going elsewhere under 12.5 than the market, it likes this bet quite a bit, giving the tight end an 88% chance to go under this line.
The model would also approve of betting Bowers to be a top-10 pick at +120 (63% chance) or Bowers to be the No. 9 overall pick exactly at +1400 (17% chance).
T Joe Alt (Notre Dame) to be first offensive lineman drafted (-450)
This isn’t the sexiest bet out there given the -450 price tag, but value is value. And that’s what the Predictor sees here. Alt is the clear consensus top offensive line prospect, and while the Predictor often stresses how much uncertainty there is in the draft, it sees little here. It gives Alt a 98% chance to be the first offensive lineman selected — well worth the price. I’d prefer a little more uncertainty, but even if it were 90% that would still make this a bet.
T Dallas Turner (Alabama) to be drafted at No. 7 overall (+2000)
Everyone is assuming that Alt is the player at No. 7 — and the Predictor agrees; he should be the clear favorite at this spot. But just because the Titans need a tackle and Alt is there does not necessarily mean that’s the direction they’ll go. Not for sure. And when the top defensive player in the draft will very likely be on the board, there’s a chance they could go that direction, too, right?
The draft isn’t always as simple as team X has need Y and therefore will draft player Z. Plus, another team could trade into this spot. The Predictor gives Turner a 25% chance to be the No. 7 pick, which certainly seems high. But even if the true odds are half of that, it would still be directionally correct and remain a significant value at this price.
T JC Latham (Alabama) draft position over 14.5 (+130)
Latham could really go at any spot starting from 10, and the Predictor makes spots No. 13 (currently Raiders) and No. 14 (currently Saints) his most likely individual landing places. But no specific spot is that likely on its own, as they top out at 11% each. When we look at his entire range of outcomes, the Predictor gives Latham a 57% chance to go over 14.5, despite us receiving plus-money there.
Edge Chris Braswell (Alabama) to be a first round pick (+2500)
This is a long shot, but as we mentioned previously, the Predictor gives Braswell a 10% shot to go in the first round, making him a value at 25-1. Back in early March, ESPN analyst Jordan Reid put Braswell at 45 in his two-round mock, but even still, this is situation in which you squint and pray for variance. Big jumps do happen, though. This time two years ago we’d have been pretty stunned to hear that both Quay Walker and Cole Strange ended up getting drafted in the first round.
Over 6.5 (+240) defensive linemen and edge rushers drafted in the first round
The Predictor gives the over a 45% (+124) chance of hitting here, so this is clearly a nice value if it’s right. Let’s count:
From the Predictor’s perspective, we have just three first-round locks — Dallas Turner, Jared Verse and Byron Murphy II — and perhaps that’s why the under is so heavily favored. But there are four other players who probably will be first-rounders.
Laiatu Latu has an 88% chance to be a first-round pick. Chop Robinson and Darius Robinson (who will attend the NFL draft, a good sign) are at 74% and 72%, respectively. And then Jer’Zhan Newton has a 67% chance. You probably need all of them to hit, which is why the Predictor says it’s more likely the under hits. But it believes the over comes through more often than the market suggests, in part because it’s relatively confident in those four players and also because there are other long shots who could put this over the top, too, like a Chris Braswell (10%), Braden Fiske (7%) or Bralen Trice (6%).
Under 21.5 (-140) offensive players drafted in the first round
This is one of the trickiest props out there because every pick in the draft is dependent on every pick before it, which is why we need to simulate the draft to price it. It’s also tough to parse by just eyeballing it, trying to sift through every conceivable first-round player and combination. So, for this one, I’m throwing my blind trust behind the model. And according to the Predictor, the under has an 81% of hitting, which is well worth the -140 price.
ESPN Analytics’ Brian Burke contributed to this story.
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