In the wake of the NFL Draft, and as the 2024 schedule begins to come into focus, sportsbooks have unveiled their Over/Under win total projections for every team for the 2024 season.
FOX Sports’ Colin Cowherd has a deep understanding of how these bets work — “On average, fans tend to bet the over; those are called sucker bets.” — but he poured through the numbers on Monday’s episode of “The Herd,” and offered up his advice on the best Over/Under bets to target.
Check out his six favorite bets, along with a few thoughts on each:
Green Bay Packers: Over 9.5 wins
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Cowherd’s thoughts: “That’s almost like a hedge against Jordan Love. They bring back an offensive coach who’s excellent. Jordan Love at the end of last year … clearly a notch better than Dak [Prescott], who people like. They return every tight end and receiver of note. They’ll be better defensively, under Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley. And they bring in Josh Jacobs. So, they’re young. They’re dynamic. The NFC’s the weaker conference. Jordan Love looked fantastic. This feels like to me … a hedge against Jordan Love. And, I know the division’s better. It’s not that much better. Green Bay’s probably still better than Chicago, and much better than Minnesota. Take the over on the Packers, 9.5.”
Dallas Cowboys: Under 10.5 wins
Cowherd’s thoughts: “I can’t see the Cowboys winning 11 or 12 games. They’re due for some regression. They’ve won 12-plus games in each of the last three seasons. Now they don’t have Tyron Smith. They don’t have much of a run game. They’re very CeeDee Lamb-dependent. They weren’t active in free agency, and, I think the Eagles and Commanders will be better football teams. The other thing is … Dak is 8-18 in his career … when he has to throw the ball 40 or more times. If you don’t have a run game — and the division is better — you’re going to be playing from behind on occasion. I think Dallas under 10.5 is one of my favorite bets.”
Los Angeles Rams: Over 8.5 wins
Cowherd’s thoughts: “If it’s a quarterback/coach/weapons league, the Rams are ‘A’ at all of them. I don’t get it. They won last year … 10 games with the second-youngest roster in the league. And I don’t think Seattle is necessarily better. I think they match up well right now with the Niners. They’ve addressed their defensive needs. Listen, Aaron Donald was really good, but the last two drafts have addressed it really well. They had the most all-rookie selections, and did not have a first-round pick last year. It’s a really good scouting and drafting organization. They find gems everywhere. Eight and a half … I think they have a chance to end up in the NFC championship. That [8.5] seems criminally low.”
Cowherd’s thoughts: “Their offensive line is either rookies or old guys. How many offensive linemen do they have in their prime that are excellent? One and he’s always hurt … Alijah Vera-Tucker. They’re very dependent on one excellent running back. [Robert] Saleh is a defensive coach. Aaron [Rodgers] is a pretty prickly, old quarterback with … maybe one great year left. I think he’s absolutely past his prime. Saleh’s 18-33. Again, tell me the offensive linemen who are in their prime and elite. He’s a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury.”
Take the Packers, Vikings over 9.5 and 6.5 wins, Cowboys under 10.5 wins
Cowherd’s thoughts: “Didn’t they win seven games last year with four quarterbacks?! I know the division’s better, but Justin Jefferson is back, and he missed seven games last year. I don’t think there’s a team in the league that’s better … if you combine coach, tight end, two weapons — left tackle, running back. They’re stacked. And again, weaker conference … You don’t even have to love Sam Darnold. You don’t even have to like him. If he’s upright, they can’t go 7-10 with an excellent young coach? That seems bizarrely low.”
New Orleans Saints: Under 7.5 wins
Cowherd’s thoughts: “Older quarterback. Defensive coach. Dennis Allen’s never proven he can win big games. The division’s absolutely better … I think they finish fourth. They’re an aging roster on both sides of the ball. They didn’t do much in free agency, like the Cowboys, because they’re up against the cap.”
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