Early MLB All-Star Picks: Who should start in the NL?

Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

Remember all that panic before the year about the holes in San Diego’s outfield? Well, the Padres now have an All-Star case at all three outfield spots.

Unfortunately for San Diego, right fielder Fernando Tatís Jr. is dealing with a stress reaction in his leg that is expected to keep him out through All-Star week. Injuries could make an impact throughout the National League All-Star roster, as Mookie Betts might also miss the game after fracturing his hand. Betts would have been the obvious starter at shortstop had he not gone down.

There are other clear-cut answers around the diamond. Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte all deserve a starting role, and all three hold the top spot in voting after the latest balloting update. Good job, fans.

Other starting positions are more open for debate, which is what this exercise is designed to illuminate.

This isn’t about which players we think will win the fan vote. Rather, this is about which positions should be the hardest to decide right now and which players ultimately deserve to start the game.

Below are the closest calls in the National League, with candidates listed in order of votes after the first balloting update. It’s worth remembering that most players on this list will still make the team, even if they don’t win the starting role.

(Note: Fans can only vote for position players, but we’re including the starting pitching competition below as well, since that will be one to watch. You can see last week’s AL picks here. The first phase of All-Star balloting concluded Thursday. The top two vote-getters at each position — and top six outfielders — will advance to the second phase of voting to determine the starter. Phase 2 voting takes place from June 30-July 3.)

Third Base

Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies– 1,960,231 votes (1st in voting)
Joey Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers – 486,267 (3rd in voting)
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies – 290,176 (7th in voting)

Bohm leads the majors in doubles, is tied with Marcell Ozuna for the NL lead in RBIs, ranks fifth in the NL in hits and has by far the best batting average and slugging percentage among NL third basemen. After a blistering start to the year, he cooled off in May before finding his rhythm again in June.

Ortiz looks like the complete package at third base for Milwaukee. The standout rookie ranks first among all NL third basemen and seventh among all NL players in on-base percentage and has been one of the best defensively at his position in the sport. Ortiz has a slight edge over Bohm in wRC+, while Bohm tops Ortiz in OPS. By wins above replacement, they’re nearly identical. McMahon ranks second among NL third basemen with 82 hits and has more home runs than Bohm and Ortiz.

My early pick: Bohm

Shortstop

*Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers – 1,680,658 votes (1st in voting) *on IL with fractured hand
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies – 1,070,672 (2nd in voting)
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds – 596,015 (3rd in voting)
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers – 320,396 (4th in voting)
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets – 222,414 (7th in voting)
Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies – 152,226 (9th in voting)

With Betts injured, the competition suddenly heats up at shortstop. Turner has looked terrific when healthy (.329/.380/.445 with 10 steals in 41 games), but he missed more than a month with a hamstring injury. De La Cruz is no longer on 100 STEAL WATCH, but 14 homers and 37 stolen bases halfway through the year is nothing to scoff at. He has been the best offensive player on the Reds, has played strong defense and is now the NL shortstop leader in fWAR.

Adames and Lindor have both been defensive standouts, even if they’re a step behind offensively compared to the others here, though Adames has knocked in significantly more runs than anyone on this list. Tovar leads all NL shortstops in hits and doubles and also receives sterling defensive grades.

My early pick: De La Cruz (assuming Betts is out)

Catcher

William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers – 1,473,348 votes (1st in voting)
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers – 955,726 (3rd in voting)
Patrick Bailey, San Francisco Giants – 150,072 (9th in voting)

For a while, this looked like an easy call. As of May 26, Contreras had a .934 OPS that was by far the NL’s best at his position as he helped lift the surprising Brewers to the top of the Central. One month later, after a dastardly cold spell in June, it’s not so clear. Smith now leads all NL backstops in homers, slugging, OPS and FanGraphs WAR and grades out better defensively than Contreras, though he suddenly finds himself in the midst of his own skid at the plate at a time he could have gained more ground. Smith is currently third in voting, trailing injured Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, but the votes were close enough as of the last update that he should have a chance to reach the next phase.

Contreras, meanwhile, still leads all NL catchers in hits, doubles, runs, RBIs, stolen bases (tied for first) and Baseball-Reference WAR. He also has a higher average and on-base percentage than Smith and has played far more innings than any other NL catcher. Bailey is worth mentioning here as well, despite playing in only 55 games. He’s tied for second in bWAR with Smith, has the highest on-base percentage and wRC+ among all catchers with at least 200 plate appearances and is one of the most gifted defensive catchers in the game, grading out among the best in baseball in framing and pop time.

My early pick: Contreras

Outfield

Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres – 1,646,276 votes (1st in voting)
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers – 1,506,639 (2nd in voting)
Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers – 1,413,877 (3rd in voting)
*Fernando Tatís Jr, San Diego Padres – 1,390,737 (4th in voting) *on IL with leg injury
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants – 505,042 (9th in voting)
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres – 289,387 (16th in voting)
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates – outside top 20
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets – outside top 20

What an unexpected collection of names! While AL superstars such as Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge have already accumulated nearly 6 WAR, there’s not even a single three-win player in the NL outfield, and the talent pool took another hit with Tatís’ injury. But that opens the door for some competition.

Profar has been the offensive breakout story of the first half. The former top prospect is putting together his best season yet at 31 years old. He leads all NL players in on-base percentage and all NL outfielders in batting average and OPS. His 90 hits are tied with Reynolds and his 55 RBIs are tied with Hernández for the most among NL outfielders. He should be a shoo-in as a starter. The other two spots are more up for grabs.

Profar, Tatís, Reynolds and Hernández are the only qualified NL outfielders with an OPS over .800. Hernández leads all NL outfielders in homers and slugging. Reynolds has graded out poorly on defense but leads all qualified NL outfielders in doubles, ranks third in homers and OPS and is on fire in June, notching at least one hit in every game this month.

Merrill’s defense, meanwhile, has been a luxury all year in San Diego. The 21-year-old has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last couple weeks. Earlier this month, he became the first Padres rookie ever to launch seven homers over a 10-game span. Nimmo has been on an even more blistering pace, lifting his OPS from .708 on June 13 to .793 entering play Thursday. He now ranks third in fWAR among all NL outfielders behind only Profar and Tatís.

Yelich and Ramos will be dinged for their lack of playing time compared to others on this list, but they’ve made the most of their opportunities on the field. Ramos, the Giants’ 24-year-old breakout sensation, leads all NL outfielders in bWAR, despite only playing in 44 games to this point. Yelich has stolen 16 bases in 55 games and is slashing .325/.407/.485 for an .892 OPS that is tied with Profar for the top mark among outfielders with at least 150 plate appearances this year.

The last starting spot would be a toss-up for me between Reynolds, whose 23-game hitting streak is the longest of his career, the longest of any Pirate since 2003 and the longest MLB streak by any player this season, and Yelich, who has been more productive in a smaller sample. Ultimately, I think the fans have it right as of the last update. But Reynolds deserves more love.

My early picks: Profar, Hernández, Yelich (assuming Tatís is out)

Starting Pitcher

Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Suárez, a Cy Young front-runner for much of the year, leads all NL pitchers in WAR and has a dazzling 2.01 ERA. Among NL pitchers with at least 100 strikeouts this year, none have a lower ERA than Wheeler (2.73), who has gone at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs in six of his past seven starts and is tied for the NL lead in quality starts. Glasnow leads the majors in strikeouts and WHIP and the NL in strikeout percentage and opponents’ batting average and was the first NL pitcher to 100 innings.

Sale has the same 10-2 record as Suárez. His FIP (2.31) is considerably better than his actual ERA (which is still impressive, at 2.91), and he owns the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the NL. Sale’s teammate, López, has the lowest ERA (1.70) among all qualified MLB starters in his move from the bullpen back to the rotation. Gray has given the Cardinals the ace they desired, posting the lowest WHIP of his career while logging the second-highest strikeout rate among qualified NL starters. He has gone at least seven innings in three straight starts, allowing just four runs over that stretch.

If it’s possible, Skenes has somehow exceeded expectations since his call-up to the bigs. Among NL starters who’ve thrown at least 40 innings, Skenes is first in K/BB ratio, second in K%, third in ERA and sixth in WHIP. The only thing working against him is his lack of innings.

My early pick: Glasnow

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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