No one is claiming that the young United Football League is on par with the NFL. But it is football. And if there’s one product the American sports betting consumer can’t get enough of, it’s football.
The UFL, created this year through the merger of the USFL and XFL, heads into its two-weekend postseason. And value can be found in the UFL odds market for those willing to do a little work.
“It’s a new league with new teams, so there will always be certain edges available to bettors who are thoroughly researching the league,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.
Cipollini provided his insights on betting for each of this weekend’s UFL semifinal matchups.
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Michigan Panthers vs Birmingham Stallions
The UFL has two conferences, with namesakes taken from last season’s two spring leagues. Birmingham rolled to the top seed in the USFL Conference, going 9-1 straight up (SU) and 6-4 against the spread (ATS). Michigan was second at 7-3 SU/5-5 ATS.
These two teams just met last weekend in the regular-season finale. Birmingham was an 8-point home favorite and squeaked out a 20-19 victory. The Stallions got a touchdown with one minute left, and the Panthers missed a 53-yard field-goal attempt in the final seconds.
The Stallions opened as shorter favorites this week, and the line has shifted toward the underdog for a 3 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff in Birmingham.
“The spread opened at Stallions -6.5, but has moved to Stallions -4.5,” Cipollini said. “At 6.5, we took mostly Panthers money, but now at 4.5, we are taking more Stallions money. We’ll likely prefer the Panthers come kickoff.”
As of late Thursday night, the Stallions are -4.5 (-115). Bettors like Birmingham to not only get through this weekend, but through the June 16 championship game on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
“The Stallions are the most-bet team in futures odds,” Cipollini said.
Birmingham is currently -135 to win the championship at BetMGM.
San Antonio Brahmas vs St. Louis Battlehawks
St. Louis and San Antonio both went 7-3 SU this season, but the Battlehawks got the No. 1 seed by way of winning both games against the Brahmas. So St. Louis will host the second semifinal, at 7 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
Last weekend, the Battlehawks beat the Brahmas 13-12, though San Antonio covered as a 2.5-point road underdog. St. Louis is 5-5 ATS, and San Antonio is 6-4 ATS.
For the UFL semifinal, the Battlehawks opened as 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM and are down to -3 (-105).
“We took some money on Brahmas +3.5, which led us to move to 3. But right now at 3, we are getting 50/50 money,” Cipollini said. “Come Sunday, I believe we will be rooting for the Brahmas. We are more likely to take Battlehawks money in the run-up to kickoff.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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