In the final minutes of the USA–Panama Copa América match, after underdog Panama took a 2-1 lead, BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee leaned into The Sopranos for an analogy.
“If this result holds, as Tony Soprano once said: ‘It’s a rainy night in Lyndhurst’ for bettors,” Magee said.
Indeed, bettors got soaked as the 2-1 result held Thursday night in Atlanta, a stunning upset loss for the U.S. men’s national team. Team USA’s hopes of advancing to the knockout stage are now in peril.
Magee offered his insights on how the U.S. setback impacted bettors and the Copa América odds market overall.
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Huge Result
In the 18th minute, Team USA’s Tim Weah was sent off on a red card. That left the Americans a man down the rest of the match.
Just four minutes later, though, Folarin Balogun struck to put the U.S. up 1-0 and take a little pressure off. But Panama quickly responded, as Cesar Blackman netted the equalizer in the 26th minute to tie it at 1.
The USMNT had opportunities the rest of the way, but couldn’t convert. Panama got a Jose Fajardo goal in the 83rd minute, and the U.S. couldn’t answer. Team USA was a -250 favorite in BetMGM’s three-way market, with Panama a +725 underdog and Draw +375.
“It’s a huge positive result for the book,” Magee said. “The amount of parlays that result killed, no Christian Pulisic goal, not to mention how many people probably took USA on the live line in-game.
“It’s a huge upset, regardless of the red card. I don’t think anyone saw this coming, and on U.S. soil no less.”
There was no shortage of USA bettors willing to lay -250 or more – the odds got as high as -310 at BetMGM – on the moneyline. Even at -250, that required a $250 bet to make $100 ($350 total payout).
Some BetMGM customers looked for value by instead taking Team USA -1.5 goals at even money, meaning a $100 bet would win $100 ($200 total payout). But the sportsbook scooped up all those bets, as well.
“It just adds to the huge result,” Magee said.
Looking Ahead
With the loss, the USMNT will likely have to beat Group C favorite Uruguay in Monday night’s pool-play finale in order to reach the eight-team knockout stage. It’s an unenviable spot to be in.
“The odds to advance obviously get longer,” Magee said. “There’s a world where Uruguay could start a [different] 11 on Monday, if they have a hefty win against Bolivia.
“But the way it stands, USA is going to need a win and hope Bolivia can get something against Panama. Or USA gets a draw and really, really hopes Panama has a poor showing vs. Bolivia.”
As it turned out, Uruguay had a very hefty win vs. Bolivia, rolling 5-0. So Uruguay has already qualified for the knockout stage and perhaps might let off the gas for Monday’s 9 p.m. ET clash vs. Team USA on FOX.
In fact, BetMGM expects that, to a degree. On the three-way moneyline for USA-Uruguay, the USMNT is a slight favorite at +150, while Uruguay is +188 and Draw +220.
But the U.S. still needs a positive result — likely a win — against Uruguay. At the moment, Panama, with an easier Monday match vs. Bolivia, is the -155 favorite to be the second Group C team to advance, while the USMNT is a +110 underdog to advance.
Before the loss to Panama, the USMNT was the +1200 co-fifth choice in odds to win Copa America. Now, the U.S. has slipped all the way to +2500, the co-sixth choice with Ecuador and with a daunting task ahead to avoid being eliminated by Uruguay.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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