As the calendar turns to August and football season inches closer, bettors start poking their heads out like characters in a Whac-A-Mole machine.
Hell, I smile just thinking about betting pigskin again.
Teams’ results a season ago combine with offseason narratives to shape win totals and future markets, and you can often find decent value if you’re willing to zig when the majority zags.
If you’ve read my stories here on FOX Sports over the last four football seasons, that’s sort of how I roll.
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Last football season, we finished 53-43, +5.3 for the season in this space.
I’ve compiled a list of seven wagers to wet your beak before college football and the NFL dominate your televisions over the coming months.
Let’s go to work.
Houston Texans miss the playoffs
Houston’s hype is getting ridiculous. The win total opened at 9, and it’s already been bet up to 9.5 o-150 at some shops.
After playing the third-easiest schedule in 2023 and making the playoffs behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans now face the seventh-toughest slate in 2024.
The AFC South is far from a layup and Houston is slated to face Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in non-divisional games. Woof.
PICK: Houston Texans to miss the playoffs (+165 at BetMGM)
Ball State “Over” 3.5 wins
Bet you didn’t see this one coming.
The Cardinals finished 4-8 last season but lost three nail biters by a single score. They bring back eight offensive starters under longtime head coach Mike Neu, a rarity in smaller conferences like the MAC given all the turnover and transfer portal maneuvering.
I’ve got Ball State winning two of its first three games, leaving only two more victories against a conference schedule that is littered with coin flips.
PICK: Ball State Over 3.5 wins (-165 at BetMGM)
Michigan “Under” 9 wins
Fading the national champs, eh?
Michigan must replace Hall of Fame head coach Jim Harbaugh and 10 starters (!) on offense, plus it faces the nation’s sixth-toughest schedule.
The Wolverines usually start with four cupcakes at home, but this year is much different. They host Texas and USC in September, then Oregon rolls into Ann Arbor in early November. “The Game” at Ohio State feels like a surefire loss. It’ll take 10 wins to beat me and I just don’t see it.
PICK: Michigan Under 9 wins (-135 at Caesars)
Kansas “Over” 8.5 wins
The loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State stings, but Kansas will have its deepest and most-talented attack in the Lance Leipold era.
Star quarterback Jalon Daniels is healthy, and he’s complimented by senior running back Devin Neal (1,280 yards, 16 TDs L/Y), three senior wideouts and four upperclass offensive linemen.
The Jayhawks’ schedule is substantially easier — they go from facing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas last year to Arizona State, Colorado and Houston this year.
PICK: Kansas Over 8.5 wins (+135 at FanDuel)
Jaxson Dart wins Heisman Trophy
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Georgia’s Carson Beck are odds-on favorites, but Ole Miss’ senior signal caller is primed for a massive campaign.
Dart threw for over 3,300 yards last season and was responsible for 31 total touchdowns. He’s got endless speed and skill at wide receiver, and Lane Kiffin added three offensive line starters in the transfer portal.
Dart is the perfect quarterback for Kiffin’s explosive, up-tempo offense, and he will put up Heisman numbers. Circle Nov. 9 on your calendar – that’s when Georgia goes to Oxford.
PICK: Jaxson Dart to win Heisman Trophy (+1400 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles win NFC
The Eagles started 10-1 last season before mounting injuries and horrible defensive schematics clipped their wings.
Luckily, Sean Desai and Matt Patricia won’t be anywhere near the “D,” as Vic Fangio will operate that side of the football in ‘24. Philadelphia also addressed its secondary issues by taking defensive backs in the first two rounds.
And obviously, you can expect another Top-10 offense under star quarterback Jalen Hurts.
I’ve got the Eagles favored in 14 of 17 games and if they get back to another NFC Championship, you’ll be able to lock in a profit with a 7/1 ticket in your pocket.
PICK: Eagles to win NFC (+700 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl
I don’t even care how “square” this bet is anymore. I’ve made this bet before the last five seasons and Kansas City has three Super Bowl titles, one Super Bowl loss and a loss in the AFC Championship as a 7-point favorite.
The point is, Chiefs’ futures generally put you in position to lock in a profit.
Patrick Mahomes is otherworldly in the postseason, specifically when trailing in the final minutes. It’s ballsy betting against the Mahomes-Reid-Kelce trifecta and the craziest part is that Kansas City’s defense is now better than its offense.
PICK: Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+600 at FanDuel)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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