2024 College football odds: ACC projected win totals, best bets

With the addition of three new members to the ACC — UC Berkeley, Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Stanford — the new college football scheduling model will go into effect beginning with the 2024 season.

Florida State and Clemson both have the highest projected win totals in the ACC at 9.5 wins.

With Jordan Travis leaving for the NFL, DJ Uiagalelei will be the new starting quarterback for the Seminoles. Uiagalelei, who previously played for Clemson and Oregon State, will be on his third collegiate team in the past three seasons.

According to 247 Sports, FSU currently has the seventh-best transfer class.

Junior quarterback Cade Klubnik enters his second full season as Clemson’s starter and looks to make strides under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Along with Klubnik, Clemson returned eight of its 11 primary starters to the offensive side of the ball from 2023.

Cam Ward is another big name QB who has transferred to the ACC this season. He will be under center for a Miami team that looks to improve off its disappointing 7-6 record from last season.

Let’s check out projected win totals for each team in the ACC via DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 24.

Florida State
Over 9.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Under 9.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Clemson
Over 9.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Under 9.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)

Miami
Over 9: -125 (bet $10 to win $18.00 total)
Under 9: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)

NC State
Over 8.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 8.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21.00 total)

Virginia Tech
Over 8.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under 8.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18.00 total)

Louisville
Over 8.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Under 8.5: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)

SMU
Over 8: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)
Under 8: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)

North Carolina
Over 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

Syracuse
Over 7: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 7: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)

California
Over 6: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Under 6: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)

Duke
Over 5.5: +130 (bet $10 to win $23.00 total)
Under 5.5: -150 (bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

Pittsburgh
Over 5.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20.00 total)
Under 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

Georgia Tech
Over 5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Under 5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)

Boston College
Over 5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21.00 total)
Under 5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)

Wake Forest
Over 4.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 4.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)

Virginia
Over 4.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20.00 total)
Under 4.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

Stanford
Over 3.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 3.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)

FOX Sports gambling analyst Geoff Schwartz gives his predictions and best bets for the ACC.

SMU Over/Under 7.5 wins

SMU joins the ACC conference in 2024, and it is well positioned to win in Year 1.

SMU’s offense finished last season ranked 19th in efficiency. Quarterback Preston Stone is back after posting a season with 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Stone is one of eight returning starters to the offense, including the entire skill position group from 2023. SMU does need to replace some offensive lineman, but I feel their young players who will take on starting roles are better than starters from last season. SMU’s defense improved from 2022 to 2023 in a big way. It allowed half as many points and finished in the top 40 in a bunch of statistical categories. SMU added nearly an entire two deep of Power 5 defensive line transfers to play against much bigger offensive lines in the ACC.

In other words, the Mustangs has the capability to win in this new conference.

One final reason to take their season win total is their schedule. SMU does not face eight of the top ten best odds to win the ACC Conference. It opens the eight-game ACC schedule with Florida State at home and then Louisville on the road. SMU has a bye, and then it’s Stanford, Duke and Pittsburgh, another bye before Boston College, Virginia and Cal. SMU will be a favorite in all six of those games, plus against Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU and TCU to start the season in the non-conference schedule.

PICK: SMU Over 7.5 wins

Will Miami make the 12-team playoff in the 2024-25 season?

Stanford Over/Under 3.5 wins

“I can’t find them” when I asked a Stanford alum if his former squad is going to win four games this season.

Stanford is a super young team without a fixture at quarterback and that spells doom for any team. Stanford’s offense returns production from 2023, but it simply needs to play better everywhere. The offense was 94th in efficiency and 110th in points per drive. The offensive line was poor. The Cardinal had no run game and completed only 55% of passes in the quarterback rotation. The defense was worse, finishing the season 133rd in points per drive.

Just like the offense, the defense returns a ton of production, but if that’s bad production, is that helpful? Stanford had a good recruiting class in 2023 but is unable to utilize the portal like other programs, so its talent development takes time.

Unfortunately, that time doesn’t appear to be in 2024.

The schedule doesn’t do the Cardinal any favors either — at Clemson, North Carolina State and Notre Dame are all losses. Stanford has TCU, SMU and Louisville at home and will be double-digit dogs in two of the three, with TCU only being an 8.5-point favorite at the moment. That means Stanford needs to win all four of its other six games against Cal Poly, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Cal and San Jose State.

Feels like an uphill climb that won’t be a successful one.

PICK: Stanford Under 3.5 wins

Miami to win ACC

Alright folks — settle in.

The U will be back this season. Mario Cristobal returned home in 2022 and has seen fewer wins than expected in his first two seasons in Miami. While the wins might not have come as fast on the field as he’d have liked, we know the Miami staff has secured talent via high school recruiting and the transfer portal.

Miami’s team has elite talent at important positions and that bodes well for success in 2024.

A Mario Cristobal team will always be led by his units in the trenches and, while other programs attempted to quick-fix their line play via the portal, that’s not how Cristobal went about it. He built via high school recruiting, and we will see all that development come to fruition this season. Miami was able to secure Cam Ward out of the portal to play quarterback this season, and he’s got legit NFL talent if Miami can bring it out of him. The Hurricane skill position players have grown over the first two years of the Cristobal program into being reliable in 2024. The addition of Damien Martinez at running back will round out the offense.

The Hurricane defense improved immensely in Year 1 under Lance Guirdy. He needs to replace the secondary, but can count on the defensive line to help with the youngsters in the back. That defensive line has shown the ability to be a game-wrecking unit.

Miami has a favorable ACC schedule with only Louisville and Florida State as games you circle as tough ones.

I like Miami to win the ACC.

PICK: Miami +400 to win ACC

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