The sports world is already debating who will win the Heisman award, which can only mean one thing, college football is almost here.
When it comes to betting on the award, I like to look at history, talent, situation and the betting number.
When it comes to history, a quarterback has won in 12 of the past 14 years, so this award most likely will go to a signal caller.
In recent seasons, we’ve seen players win it who were at the top of the Heisman betting board before the year kicked off — think Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. And then you’ve got a guy like Joe Burrow, who was a long shot at +10000 to win the Heisman before the 2019 season.
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Whether the player is near the top of the board or further down, the reasons these players have won the Heisman are the same: They are special players who possess a “wow” factor, and they play for winning teams.
We have to keep all of that in mind when deciding who we’re putting our money on.
As a former collegiate and NFL lineman, I’d like to think I know a thing or two about what it takes to win the award, so let’s jump into a couple of guys I like to win college football’s most prestigious award.
The Kansas State transfer is primed to have a monster season at Ohio State if he’s able to play to his ability in this offense.
Ohio State’s offense is going to look different this season in the wake of head coach Ryan Day making the stunning hire of Chip Kelly to run it. A bet on Howard to win the Heisman is a wager on Kelly’s ability to get the best from his quarterback.
Kelly’s time at Oregon as playcaller produced so much offense. Dennis Dixon was a Heisman finalist before getting injured and Marcus Mariota won the award a year after spending three years with Kelly.
Kelly also got a team quarterbacked by Darron Thomas to the championship game. Imagine that!
Even in the NFL, Kelly was able to get the most out of Nick Foles and Michael Vick with the Eagles. And recently, he was able to will Dorian Thompson-Robinson at UCLA into some success.
Howard has all the physical gifts and Kelly has the mind, so it’s a great pairing. Kelly’s ability to use the run game to help the pass game will result in explosive plays through the air with the Buckeyes’ outstanding receiving core.
PICK: Will Howard to win Heisman (+1500)
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On the heels of Oregon’s Bo Nix being a Heisman finalist in 2023, I’d wager on his replacement taking the trophy home next season.
Gabriel is by way of Oklahoma after transferring from Central Florida. He completed nearly 70% of his passes last season for 3,660 yards, 30 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also added 373 rushing yards with 12 touchdowns.
Not too shabby.
Oregon’s offense is fundamentally set up for Gabriel to have career highs in everything he does on the field. The Ducks offensive line is fantastic, the wide receiver group is either first- or second-best in the sport and they have an NFL tight end on the roster.
We witnessed Will Stein’s offense generate Heisman-caliber plays for Nix last season, and it will undoubtedly do the same for Gabriel.
One knock on the Oregon offense was its short passing game. The Ducks relied on that too often, but with Gabriel’s accuracy, arm strength and explosive receiving core, I can see the offense evolving into something that uses more of the field.
Gabriel will also face Ohio State and Michigan, two defenses that will test his abilities. If he passes those tests, those performances will hold valuable weight with Heisman voters.
PICK: Dillon Gabriel to win Heisman (+800)
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The Arizona wide receiver is the best player in the country that no one knows about.
McMillan is entering his third season in a Wildcat uniform and has more than 2,100 yards and 18 touchdowns. Last season, playing with his best friend and quarterback Noah Fifita (who has the reins to the offense), McMillan caught 90 passes for 1,402 yards.
Arizona had a coaching change but did hire an offensive coach, so I expect the Wildcats to win games while scoring a ton of points.
In DeVonta Smith’s Heisman season back in 2020, he had just over 1,500 yards in the regular season with 17 touchdowns. That is totally doable for McMillan. The tough part is the winning. Arizona would need to win the Big 12 and be a playoff team for him to be considered.
At this price, he’s definitely worth a small sprinkle.
PICK: Tetairoa McMillan to win Heisman (+15000)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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