Here we are in the dog days of summer patiently waiting for our favorite NFL team to starts its season. Thanks to free agency, coaching changes and the draft, optimism for many teams will be higher now than it will be at any point this season (unless you’re a Kansas City Chiefs fan). And thanks to ESPN BET, you can add to that excitement by building your 2024 NFL betting portfolio right now.
For the next three days, we will take a look at three intriguing bets for every team, including one for Week 1 of the season. We’ll start with the teams with the lowest expected win totals, moving up to highest.
All odds courtesy of ESPN BET
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New England Patriots: O/U 4.5 wins (-165/+140)
With the over juiced to -165, I’m not interested in laying that much. It’s an under or pass, hoping Jerod Mayo’s first year bottoms out with a very thin roster on offense. The Patriots rank 31st in ESPN’s initial 2024 Football Power Index and are a +375 favorite to have the fewest wins in the NFL this season.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 rush TDs (-140)
Stevenson signed a four-year, $36 million extension with the Patriots this offseason. Even with adding Antonio Gibson to the running back room, they’re clearly committed to Stevenson as a focal point of this rebuilt offense. Despite the belief that the Pats won’t be a prolific offense this season, this number is very low for a player who can reasonably expect the bulk of the goal-line carries.
Week 1 bet: Patriots-Bengals Under 43.0 points (-110).
Do we really trust Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye — making his first NFL start — to go on the road in Week 1 and carry the Patriots’ offense to half of the bargain on the scoreboard? I’m not sure I do.
Carolina Panthers: O/U 5.5 wins (-115/-105)
This is one I’ll probably stay away from because the number is so sharp, but if I had to lean to one side or the other, I’ll be the optimist and lean over 5.5 (-115). I’m a big believer in what new coach Dave Canales will do for Bryce Young and this offense. Carolina plays in an unimposing NFC South. I don’t think this is a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they can move from 2-14 to 6-11 in one year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bryce Young over 3,175.5 pass yards (-115)
Young had a disastrous rookie campaign that has many wondering whether he’s already a bust. Canales should pay immediate dividends on Young’s numbers. He helped Baker Mayfield earn a $100 million contract last year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ offensive coordinator and Geno Smith earn a $75 million contract the year prior as the Seattle Seahawks‘ QBs coach. The upgraded receiving room with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette will also be a big benefit.
Week 1 bet: Panthers +5 (-110) at Saints
I believe the presence of Canales will lift this Carolina offense from the doldrums. One thing I never do is bet my money on a Dennis Allen-coached team. He’s one of the worst cover coaches in the league with a 27-42-1 ATS record (39%). With this total being the lowest on the board in Week 1 (40.5 points), +5 should be extremely valuable.
Denver Broncos O/U 5.5 wins (-140/+120)
I really respect Sean Payton’s acumen and ability, but while the Broncos’ schedule appears to be easy on paper, it’s hard to lay -140 on the over with Zach Wilson and rookie Bo Nix as the QB options. This line is probably a pass. Yes, the Broncos play the Raiders twice and match up with the NFC South across conferences, plus they have one of the better home-field advantages in the league. But I just can’t get past the QB issue when looking at that price on 6-plus wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bo Nix under 16.5 pass TDs (-115)
I am always very comfortable taking a rookie QB to go under his season-long props. First off, it’s not certain that Nix will be the starter from Day 1. Even if he is, do we think this Broncos offense is going to be one of the most potent in the league? And then, there is the prospect profile that had some wondering whether he was more of a second- or third-round prospect and not a first-rounder.
Week 1 bet: Seahawks -5 vs. Broncos
With slight hesitance, I’ll lay the -5 with the Seahawks. I don’t love it, but I think Seattle should be able to beat Nix or Wilson by a touchdown at home. My only pause comes from Payton coaching in his 259th game as an NFL head coach and Mike Macdonald in his very first. Despite that, I do think Macdonald is sharp and Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, should be able to get a lot out of the Seahawks’ offensive personnel with Geno Smith at the helm.
Arizona Cardinals O/U 6.5 wins (-155/+135)
I’m not enamored with the price, but I do think the Cardinals can go 7-10 in 2024. I lean toward over 6.5 wins (-155). I think I can find five to six games on the schedule where they’ll be the betting favorite. Sprinkle in an upset or two because of an improved offense, and we’re there.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Kyler Murray over 3,425.5 pass yards (+100)
Murray eclipsed this number in each of his first three seasons in the league, but because of poor injury luck, he has failed to come close in the past two. As long as he stays healthy, I’m very comfortable thinking he can eclipse this mark with two dynamic weapons to throw to in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and breakout third-year TE Trey McBride.
Week 1 bet: Cardinals-Bills over 48 points (-110)
I think we have serious sneaky shootout potential in Orchard Park. I’ll play the Cardinals’ matchup with Buffalo over 48.0 (-110). You might be surprised to discover Arizona led the league in explosive run rate (10-plus yards) last year at 15.1%. Buffalo ranked a very respectable 10th in that metric. Both teams can run the rock and both QBs — Josh Allen and Murray — can make big plays happen through the air and on the ground. Add in the debut of Harrison, and I like the setting for this game to pop off in Week 1.
Las Vegas Raiders O/U 6.5 wins (-130/+110)
I really like under 6.5 (+110). The Raiders are stuck with Gardner Minshew and/or Aidan O’Connell at QB this season. That’s just not good enough to get to 7-plus wins in my eyes.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Brock Bowers under 675.5 receiving yds (-130)
Bowers is a fantastic young prospect stuck in a horrible situation. First of all, Antonio Pierce made it abundantly clear that he’s going to run the football as often as possible. Frankly, it makes sense given his option at QB. Second, the majority of the target volume in this offense is going to be sucked up by WR Davante Adams. Even second-year TE Michael Mayer provides some level of competition that hinders Bowers’ upside.
Week 1 bet: Raiders-Chargers under 43.5 points (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115) might be my favorite Week 1 bet right now. Pierce and Jim Harbaugh could conceivably run the ball more than 80 times in this game. Each offense is severely lacking in big-play ability. The Chargers have few threats at WR and the Raiders don’t have a reliable QB to get the ball to Adams. This has all the makings of a 17-13 kind of game.
Minnesota Vikings O/U 6.5 wins (-140/+120)
This is another one where I’ll default to the price on the under 6.5 (+120). The first two months of Minnesota’s schedule are pretty brutal. If they can’t beat the Giants in Week 1, they’re looking at a potential 0-7 start. If that’s the case, Kevin O’Connell likely will have to change from Sam Darnold to rookie J.J. McCarthy at QB. Add some difficult NFC North competition, and the under is most appealing here.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Justin Jefferson over 1275.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jefferson is a QB-agnostic type of talent at wide receiver. It doesn’t really matter who’s throwing the ball — he’s going to produce as long as he stays healthy. Jefferson had a 12-catch, 192-yard performance in Week 17 last year with Nick Mullens as his QB. He’ll get his targets and he’ll produce yards whether it’s Darnold or McCarthy throwing him the rock.
Week 1 bet: Giants (PK) vs. Vikings
In a coin flip game, I’ll side with the Giants (PK) at home in Week 1. While the Giants certainly weren’t as good as their 2022 record indicated, I similarly think they aren’t quite as bad as their 2023 record. Daniel Jones should be fully recovered from his ACL injury, and now with Malik Nabers and a healthier O-line around him, I think you’re getting about 1.5 points of value in this spot on the G-Men.
New York Giants O/U 6.5 wins (+120/-140)
If Daniel Jones can stay healthy, I’ll bite on the value of the Giants going over 6.5 (+120) wins. I don’t think this is a playoff team, but I also don’t think this is a bottom-dwelling roster. Wide receiver Malik Nabers has the prospect profile of a superstar. Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the league. Same for Dexter Lawrence II at nose tackle. They have two dynamic pass rushers in Kayvon Thibodeaux and free agent addition Brian Burns. I can easily see this team getting to at least a 7-10 record.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Malik Nabers over 850.5 receiving yards (-115)
I have to admit that when I first saw this number posted, I wanted to bet the under. I even mentioned it on ESPN BET Live. But after further reflection, I really like the situation Nabers steps into. There is very little target competition for Nabers in this offense. There’s a lot of depth, but no one matches his ability. I don’t think Jones is an elite QB, but I trust Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to intelligently game plan to get the ball in Nabers’ hands as often as possible.
Week 1 bet: I’m still going with the Giants (see above).
Tennessee Titans O/U 6.5 wins (+115/-135)
I’d rather fire on the under 6.5 wins (-135) than the over with this team in this division. I think they enter 2024 with the weakest QB in the division. I’m not saying Will Levis can’t or won’t be good, it’s just at this moment I’d rather have C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson. Brian Callahan should help make this a more legitimate offense; it just doesn’t look like enough to be a seven-win team.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Will Levis over 3,450.5 passing yards (-115)
The Titans did well to upgrade the environment around their second-year QB. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd bolster the WR room with veteran ability on the perimeter and in the slot. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both adept in the pass game out of the backfield. Callahan comes over from a Cincinnati scheme that passed the ball at a high rate. This is a very reasonable number for Levis to achieve in Year 2, especially if the Titans are trailing often this season.
Week 1 bet: Titans (+4.5) vs. Bears (-110)
The Titans are in Chicago taking on the Bears and Caleb Williams in his first start. I think Chicago is going to be an improved team, but I think the markets have been a little aggressive with that assumption. I’ll take anything over a field goal with the visiting Titans, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see go into Chicago in Week 1 and earn an upset victory.
Washington Commanders O/U 6.5 wins (-120/even)
Jayden Daniels is going to be fun to watch in his rookie season, but this is an under 6.5 wins (+100) wager for me. Although Dan Quinn is a new head coach with a defensive background, I think the Commanders will struggle on that side of the ball. This could be a team that plays in a lot of high-scoring and entertaining games if Daniels is the real deal.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards (-115)
McLaurin has long been one of the most skilled receivers in the league stuck with below-average QB play. Daniels immediately brings a set of skills throwing the ball to the deep and intermediate parts of the field that fit with where McLaurin wins. McLaurin has cleared this mark in all five of his NFL seasons, so I see injury as the only threat to the over in 2024.
Week 1 bet: Over 41.5 (-105) at Tampa Bay
Like I mentioned earlier, the Commanders are a potential “sneaky shootout” team for 2024. If Daniels pays immediate dividends for Washington’s offense, he could help force the Commanders into a lot of overs in 2024 because I don’t think Dan Quinn’s defense has the personnel to consistently stop opposing teams right now.
New Orleans Saints O/U 7.5 wins (-120/even)
Dennis Allen is my favorite head coach to fade, so I’ll take under 7.5 (+100). Derek Carr also does little to inspire me at the quarterback position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints actually finish behind the Panthers in the division this year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Chris Olave over 1,025.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olave is easily the best weapon in this offense, which now has Klint Kubiak as the new OC. The third-year pro has eclipsed this mark in each of his first two seasons, and with Michael Thomas now gone and very little else established around him, Olave should be a consistent target earner. I think he is poised to have a great season for a mediocre-to-bad team.
Week 1 bet: Sticking with the Panthers to cover (see above).
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