The New York Jets are waiting for Aaron Rodgers to change everything.
They will spend the 2024 training camp watching and hoping that Rodgers is the quarterback who can reverse their long history of futility. The Jets have not made the playoffs since 2010 and haven’t won a Super Bowl since 1969. And if you’re feeling like this commentary is familiar, that’s because it’s exactly what we were saying at this time last year — before Rodgers tore his Achilles four snaps into his debut and sent New York into a dark place. Last year, the Jets finished third in the AFC East at 7-10. That record glosses over the ugliness that New York fans suffered through.
But it’s a new team. The Jets pushed even more chips onto the table during the offseason and aggressively pursued personnel that could get them closer to winning a Super Bowl. So let’s take a look at where they stand heading into training camp.
Who’s new?
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LT Tyron Smith
WR Mike Williams
RT Morgan Moses
LG John Simpson
Edge Haason Reddick
OT Olu Fashanu (rookie)
WR Malachi Corley (rookie)
QB Tyrod Taylor
DL Javon Kinlaw
DL Leki Fotu
Who left?
Edge Bryce Huff
QB Zach Wilson
OT Duane Brown
OT Mekhi Becton
OG Laken Tomlinson
C Connor McGovern
DL John Franklin-Myers
S Jordan Whitehead
WR Randall Cobb
TE C.J. Uzomah
Edge Carl Lawson
DL Quinton Jefferson
What’s up with the quarterback?
Well, it’s Aaron Rodgers. So … he’s a lot.
Let’s start with minicamp, which he decided to skip. That’s the mandatory portion of the offseason. Strangely, he did show up for some of OTAs, which are the voluntary portion of the offseason. It’s the kind of backward thinking that Rodgers is now famous for.
Saleh called the minicamp absence “unexcused” before downplaying it.
“As far as Aaron, he’s been in the League for a while. He’s played at a very high level, I think it’ll be more beneficial for Tyrod [Taylor] than a loss for Aaron if that makes sense,” Saleh told reporters on the first day of minicamp.
Are the Jets to blame for the panic surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ absence?
It wouldn’t be such a big deal that Rodgers was absent if the Jets weren’t experiencing so much turnover. They will have three new starters on the offensive line (Smith, Moses and Simpson) and one new starter at receiver (Williams). You’d think Rodgers would want to work with them and the coaches as much as possible. And you’d think the quarterback would like to test his Achilles, which is likely to be the biggest X-factor for New York.
If Rodgers’ recovery is going as well as he has said, the Jets should have a good — and maybe even a great — season. But if Rodgers is overplaying how well he has come back from what can be a catastrophic injury, the Jets have stepped into deep manure.
The most important new guy: OT Tyron Smith
The Jets just cannot get settled at tackle. From Brown to Becton to George Fant to Max Mitchell to Carter Warren, New York has struggled to acquire starting protectors on the edge — and have struggled even more to keep those players healthy.
Smith, who’s 33 and a 13-year veteran with the Cowboys, can be a Pro Bowl starter at left tackle. He also has a propensity for injury. He has not played a full season since 2015. Over the past four seasons, he has played just 30 games. It’s a worrying résumé. That’s probably why New York also drafted Olu Fashanu in Round 1. He should be able to step in when/if Smith misses time.
But let’s not assume injury. Let’s hope Smith can play a full season, stabilize the blindside and change the Jets offense in a way none of the team’s other acquisitions can.
“I feel like we can be a dominant offense once everyone’s on the same page,” Smith said in minicamp.
Another important guy who wasn’t at minicamp: Edge Haason Reddick
We already covered Rodgers’ absence at minicamp. The other guy missing was Reddick, whom the Jets acquired from Philadelphia this offseason. They did so after Bryce Huff signed with the Eagles in free agency. Reddick is supposed to be a massive piece on their defense. He recorded 11 sacks last year and 16 in 2022. And when the Jets traded for him, they didn’t think he wanted a new contract.
Psych! He does.
So that puts New York in a tough spot. The Jets are already cap-strapped, so it won’t be simple to sweeten Reddick’s deal. But that’s likely what they’ll have to do.
The position battle to watch: wide receiver
The Jets added Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley to a position group that already included Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson. Wilson is the top wideout. Williams is likely the WR2. After that, it’s one big mystery. Lazard is one of Rodgers’ best friends. Corley seems like an explosive gadget player who can play multiple positions (including, perhaps, running back). Gipson is one of the team’s most explosive weapons.
New York doesn’t have enough snaps for all of them. It will be fascinating to see which players develop a rapport with Rodgers — and which players have undeniable production to earn their way onto the field.
Jets, Bengals, Chiefs atop Jason McIntyre’s Super Bowl tiers
The strongest breakout candidate: Edge Jermaine Johnson
Johnson went from 2.5 sacks in 2022 to 7.5 in 2023. His career has been relatively quiet compared to others in his draft class: Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. But Johnson is in line to be a full-time starter for a second straight season. He might even play more than he played last year at 65.7% of defensive snaps, the eighth-most on the Jets D.
I have no doubt he’ll hit double-digit sacks this year. And it’s fair to wonder whether Johnson’s total might flirt with 20.
“My ceiling — I just keep raising it,” he said. “I don’t think I’ll ever reach it, because when I reach my goals, I keep thinking higher and higher and higher. I’m just taught to go until the wheels fall off.”
The guy facing the most pressure: Edge Will McDonald
The good news is that the Jets love to play a deep rotation on the defensive line.
The bad news is that McDonald is battling a deep group of defensive linemen.
The good news is that McDonald, the 15th overall pick in 2023, figures to be the third edge.
The bad news is that the Jets acquired Reddick rather than give McDonald a big promotion.
“It is what it is,” Johnson said of McDonald’s career thus far. “First-round draft pick. Edge rusher. Eyes are on you. He knows that. Nobody can put more pressure on Will than himself. I know he’s been working his butt off. Getting more explosive. Working on his technique. Getting more powerful. Adding some weight. He looks good. He’s in a good framework of mind. I’m just excited for what he does in Year 2.”
McDonald had three sacks last year — not unlike Johnson, who took a big second-year leap. Will McDonald do the same?
The guy who’s in a bad position: WR Allen Lazard
It’s one thing for McDonald to be dealing with a limited workload. It’s another thing for Lazard, who might see his work dry up entirely. After signing a four-year, $44 million deal last season, he had just 23 catches for 311 yards and one touchdown. He finished last year with five drops, tied for 17th-most in the NFL.
Even the return of his buddy, Rodgers, might not save Lazard, who — as mentioned — is embroiled in one of the team’s most competitive position battles.
“It’s not the first time, and it won’t be the last time that a free agent who gets a big contract and goes to another team with expectations, a new city, new teammates, new players, kind of falters a little bit,” Saleh said. “You dig yourself into a hole and then it’s really hard to get out of. I think he’s attacked the heck out of the offseason. He’s like a second coach on the field in that receiver room. … I think he’s going to have a really nice bounce-back year.”
Which version of Lazard will the Jets see: the guy from last year or the guy from 2022 (60 catches 788 and 6 TDS)? Given the additions at the receiver position, it doesn’t even seem like the Jets think they can count on Lazard finding his peak form again.
Fantasy football sleeper: WR Mike Williams
Between his ACL injury recovery and the Jets’ lack of success last year, Williams is currently going at WR51 alongside guys like Jameson Williams (Lions), Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) and Keon Coleman (Bills).
Williams might have a slow start to the season, as is typical for WRs dealing with knee injuries. He might even land on the waiver wire in some leagues. But I expect he’ll find the end zone often in the second half of the season as he starts to feel more like himself.
“I think I can complement the receiver group well,” Williams said. “I can be that big, physical receiver who can play downfield, catch slants or do whatever it takes.”
The Rodgers-Wilson-Williams trio should be really impressive in the back half of the year.
Will Mike Williams be a good fit on the Jets?
How they win the Super Bowl
It depends upon an otherworldly recovery from Rodgers.
Sort of like when Adrian Peterson reset expectations around ACL recovery in 2012 and Kobe Bryant reset expectations around Achilles recovery for older athletes. But that has also created some unrealistic expectations for Rodgers to show up at 100 percent again.
If he does look like himself, the Jets will be in business. They’ve invested a ton of money and draft capital in getting a really strong unit around their franchise QB. It’s a tough division to make the playoffs, but the Bills and Dolphins are dealing with salary cap crunches and aren’t quite as deep as they were last year.
If Rodgers is physically ready, this year is a good one to strike. The pieces — at least on paper — appear to be in place for the Jets.
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How they miss the playoffs
Even if fully healthy, the 40-year-old Rodgers might not look like himself anymore. The other players recovering from injuries (Smith, Williams, Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker) might not look like themselves either. And the Jets’ house of cards would then crumble, in part due to risky acquisitions and poor coaching, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where the team reportedly tried and failed to bring in someone to oversee and/or replace offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
The Jets are asking a lot of Rodgers in terms of elevating not just this cast of additions but also Hackett, who had an extremely underwhelming season in 2023 with the Jets (and in 2022 with the Broncos). There’s obviously a scenario where the Jets put all the pieces together at just the right time. But does that really sound like the Jets organization that we know? (No, it does not.)
It’s entirely possible that the Jets are forcing the issue to go all-in on Rodgers’ final seasons — but that this injury will hold them back from Super Bowl contention.
Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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