Every year, NFL clubs throw millions of dollars at players aiming to preserve continuity, get ahead of their books and improve their teams.
For the most part, we don’t question the mega deals thrown at bona-fide superstars. But there are always big contracts that give us a reason for pause, whether it’s because of a player’s past performance, lack of experience, injury history and/or off-the-field concerns, among other reasons.
Here are FOX Sports’ seven “riskiest” NFL contracts signed this offseason:
1. Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love
Contract: four years for $220 million, including $160.3 million guaranteed
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Why it’s a risk: It’s obvious: Love has only started one full season.
Of course, the Packers had to pay the former first-round pick (he had been entering a contract year) and in this time of skyrocketing quarterback contracts, the next guy up sets new financial records in his deal (Love’s $55 average annual value ties Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and Bengals QB Joe Burrow for the highest in league history). You don’t have to be the best.
But that doesn’t erase the tremendous risk of paying Love off one great year. Can he maintain greatness year in and year out, as Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre did before him? If Love can’t build on his success, this contract could be a long-term disaster for the Packers.
Does Jordan Love deserve to be the highest-paid QB?
2. Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins
Contract: four years for $180 million, including $100 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: Cousins is the best starting quarterback the Falcons have had since prime Matt Ryan, but giving him triple-digit guarantees coming off an Achilles tear at age 35 is a massive gamble. Atlanta’s decision to draft Washington‘s Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall only raises more questions about the contract.
3. Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
Contract: three years for $37.75 million, including $26 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: Barkley may very well be the missing piece to a loaded Eagles offense, but there’s an inherent risk in paying that much to a 27-year-old running back with a lengthy injury history. Barkley has missed at least three games in four of his past five seasons. He’s played a full season only once, his rookie year in 2018.
He also had just one 100-yard rushing game last season, which came in October. How much of prime Barkley is left?
Lane Johnson dishes on Eagles’ addition of Saquon Barkley
4. Tennessee Titans WR Calvin Ridley
Contract: four years for $92 million, including $50 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: Ridley will be 30 years old before the end of the 2024 season. He may have less wear and tear on his body than a typical wide receiver of his age and caliber — Ridley missed 29 games between the 2022 and 2023 seasons — but will his production justify the contract?
The Titans have a crowded receivers room. And according to Pro Football Focus, Ridley had an 18.8% drop rate last season, second-worst among all wide receivers who saw at least 20 targets.
5. Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs
Contract: four years for $48 million, including $12.5 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: The Packers gave Jacobs one of the league’s biggest running back contracts despite the fact that he missed the final four games of last season due to a quad injury. And before he got hurt, he was having the least efficient season of his career. Jacobs registered career-lows in rushing success rate (45.9%), yards per carry (3.5) and yards per game (61.9).
6. Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
Contract: five years for $275 million, including $200 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: A deeper dive into the contract makes the numbers more palpable. But as Lawrence enters Year 4, we’re still questioning if he can be a consistently great quarterback, let alone an elite one. His turnover numbers since entering the league are alarming — he has 60 since 2021, which leads the NFL in that span.
Jacksonville is in its window of contention. If Lawrence doesn’t elevate his play, the contract could set the franchise back years.
Will Trevor Lawrence live up to his contract?
7. Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Contract: four years for $212.4 million, including $167.17 million guaranteed
Why it’s a risk: Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season. He’s had elite production. But how much of his success is dependent upon Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the surrounding talent? Tagovailoa’s shortcomings have been exploited several times, and his poor track record in cold-weather games is noteworthy. Although he started 17 games for the first time last season, Tagovailoa’s injury history is a bit concerning as well — including multiple stints in concussion protocol during the 2022 season.
McDaniel’s playcalling and Miami’s surrounding cast around Tagovailoa must remain strong to prevent his new contract from potentially crippling the Dolphins long-term.
Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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