The 2024 college football season will mark the debut of Arizona, Arizona State and Utah as Big 12 Conference members and the return of Colorado to the league.
However, the Big 12 will lose two of its most prominent schools in Texas and Oklahoma, who have departed for the SEC.
Which team will step up and be the next face of the Big 12? Will Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes take the league by storm?
Both Utah and Kansas State have the highest projected win totals within the conference at 9.5 wins.
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Utah quarterback Cam Rising will return to the Utes for their 2024 campaign after missing the entire 2023 season. The dual-threat QB was the MVP of the 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game and was a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien Award and the Maxwell Award.
With Will Howard transferring to Ohio State, Avery Johnson will start at QB for Kansas State, as he looks to build off his great bowl game performance from a season ago.
Let’s take a look at each Big 12 teams’ projected win totals via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 16.
Utah
Over 9.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)
Under 9.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Kansas State
Over 9.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Under 9.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)
Oklahoma State
Over 8: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 8: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Arizona
Over 7.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 7.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Kansas
Over 8: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Under 8: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Texas Tech
Over 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
TCU
Over 7.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Under 7.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Iowa State
Over 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
UCF
Over 7.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)
Under 7.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
West Virginia
Over 6.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Under 6.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Baylor
Over 5.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Under 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)
Colorado
Over 5.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Under 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Cincinnati
Over 5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
BYU
Over 4.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Under 4.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
Arizona State
Over 4.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Under 3.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Houston
Over 3.5: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
Under 3.5: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
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FOX Sports gambling analyst Geoff Schwartz gives his best future bets within the Big 12.
UCF Over/Under 7.5 wins
The Golden Knights won six games last season in their first season in a Power Five conference, a respectable number for a Group of Five squad moving up.
While you are what your record says, going game by game to see why a team won or lost is a more nuanced way to look at a record. UCF was able to build early leads in its conference losses but wasn’t able to hang on for victories. The Knights had a two-point loss to Oklahoma, one-point loss to Texas Tech and a 28-point blown lead to Baylor.
UCF proved it can hang with the big boys in Year 1 and now looks to improve in Year 2.
Head Coach Gus Malzahn brought in Arkansas transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson. And let me be the first to say this: He has striking similarities to Cam Newton, the Heisman and National Championship winning quarterback who played for Malzahn at Auburn.
It’s unfair to compare anyone to Cam Newton, but the skill set of Jefferson fits a Malzahn offense well. UCF has a ton of skill guys returning for 2024 to help Jefferson. The defense struggled stopping the run last season, so the Knights replaced the defensive coordinator and added veteran linebackers in the portal to shore up the run defense.
The Knights’ schedule sets up well for them to win at least eight games. They don’t have Kansas State or Oklahoma. They get Utah and Arizona at home, and then they have winnable games against BYU, Cincy, Arizona State and Colorado.
I think UCF is getting above 7.5 wins.
PICK: UCF Over 7.5 wins
Arizona State Over/Under 4.5 wins
I dislike this part of my job. Rooting against a head coach that I absolutely know can coach and will eventually turn around a program — except it won’t be happening in 2024 at ASU.
The Sun Devils are just not talented enough right now to compete against the squads they face on their schedule. Their offense is full of transfer portal players and players who did not get a lot of playing time last season, whether it was because of injury or lack of skill.
State’s defense did a rebuild in the trenches by adding veteran players. That group may be better than expected, but we don’t know. “We don’t know” actually might sum up Arizona State perfectly.
Then, there’s that schedule. The Sun Devils drew the six best teams in the conference. Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona and UCF are all on the calendar. Plus they’ve got a road game at Texas Tech and Mississippi State comes to town.
I see four wins max this season.
PICK: Arizona State Under 4.5 wins
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Utah to win Big 12
All aboard the Kyle Whittingham hype train.
I will wager on Utah whenever possible, and the Utes are well-equipped to win the Big 12 in their first season in this conference. They missed the most snaps and starts last season due to injury. And the Utes are due for positive regression there, and it starts with some of their more important players.
Remember, Utah quarterback Cam Rising is back — the two-time Pac-12 champion. Tight end Brant Kuithe is also back on the field. So are several members of the defense who lost time to injury last season. The Utes have to replace some defensive pass rush but it should find those players.
The schedule isn’t awful either. Utah gets a back-to back against Oklahoma State and Arizona and then finishes Thanksgiving weekend at UCF. That’s a potential spot for a loss. However, it’s feasible Utah will have clinched a title game spot and won’t need to play their starters in that contest.
The Utes will win the conference title game.
PICK: Utah to win Big 12 (+320)
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