The expansion of the College Football Playoff from four teams to 12 heightens the expectations for teams within the top tier of the sport. “Playoff-or-bust” is now a realistic mindset for more than just the top of the top, and as I have said for a long time, that is a very good thing.
So, what does that mean for fans of those teams? What should be the criteria for what they define as a successful season? I’ve compiled a list of 10 of the most interesting teams in college football this year and chosen five benchmarks to measure success. Those benchmarks are:
- Make a bowl game
- College Football Playoff
- CFP quarterfinals
- CFP final four
- CFP national championship game
Notice I did not list winning the national championship as one of my landing spots for success. Part of that is that I don’t think it’s realistic to have a “national title or bust” mindset. There are going to be too many quality opponents late in the season. We do not know what will happen from an injury standpoint. You get some of these teams facing each other that are equally matched up, and it can come down to one play or one turnover or even, unfortunately, a missed call at times.
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These teams are not sorted by how good I think they are — for that, be sure to check out my preseason Top 25 rankings. Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Nick Saban has departed the Crimson Tide after the longest sustained era of greatness that we’ve ever seen in college football history. We will never again see a run in this sport like what Saban had at Alabama, and though his former assistant, Kirby Smart, has built a similar juggernaut at Georgia, the new landscape of college football — including the expanded playoff — will make it more difficult for anyone to replicate what Saban did in Tuscaloosa for the better part of two decades.
Heading into Kalen DeBoer’s first year as head coach, Alabama remained in the top five of the preseason AP poll for the 16th straight year. The Tide were not in my top five, but I understand why the AP poll has them where they do. DeBoer is a great coach, and I loved getting a chance to sit down with him earlier this summer on my “Big Noon Conversations” series. And Alabama is still Alabama, with or without Saban. They’ve got an incredible winning tradition, they’ve got the resources, and they just replaced the greatest coach of all time with one of the most successful coaches in recent college football history.
DeBoer reached the CFP championship game in just his second season at Washington, won three national titles at Sioux Falls, and boasts an all-time head coaching record of 104-12. Like I said when talking to him, he’s got a Tiger Woods-esque aspect to him where he just flat-out wins and knows how to win as well as anyone.
So while I did not put Alabama in my top five, and I believe both Texas and Georgia should be the clear favorites to make the SEC title game over the Tide, I do not believe that Alabama can or will take a massive step back this year. DeBoer is too good, and the roster he’s inherited from Saban is too good for that to happen. Alabama has lived rent-free in the top four of college football for a long time. I can expect a small step back, but not more than that.
Successful season: Reach the CFP quarterfinals
As long as Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders is leading the Buffaloes, Colorado will be one of the most difficult teams to project year by year because of how transfer-centric that roster is. To be candid, we don’t know exactly who or what the 2024 Buffaloes are. To be fair to Colorado — at risk of being called a homer because, yes, I used to play quarterback there — the fact is, the Buffaloes played six ranked opponents last season and only suffered one loss that I would categorize as a blowout. That came in Eugene against a great Oregon team that, as Dan Lanning infamously put it, was not playing for clicks.
But in the five other games Colorado played against ranked opponents, the Buffaloes were within one score in the fourth quarter of each game. Nobody wants to talk about that fact and bring any nuance to this discussion. Everyone just wants to either sling dirt on this program or sing its praises from the rafters. It’s totally hyperbolic, with the pendulum swinging one way or the other. I just think that Colorado was a little better last year than most people believe.
The Buffaloes lost some games they shouldn’t have. They also won a game they shouldn’t have in Week 1 at TCU. But this is a better team this year, and I believe that the 5.5 win total that Vegas has Colorado at is way too low. Coach Prime still has his son, Shedeur Sanders, one of the best quarterbacks in the sport. He still has Travis Hunter, who I think is the best position player in the sport. The Buffaloes have dramatically upgraded their offensive line, which is what they needed to upgrade most. I think Colorado easily makes it to a bowl this season, and eight wins should really be their target for success. I almost said nine wins, but lowered it because of the competition level in this year’s new-look Big 12.
Successful season: Make a bowl game (eight wins)
How Alabama & Colorado should define success in the 12-team playoff era
Matt Rhule told me in our “Big Noon Conversations” interview this summer that he feels like his program is a year ahead of schedule in his second season in charge. He is bullish on Nebraska this year, and it just so happens that I am, too. Similar to its rival Colorado, Nebraska lost games last season that it should not have lost once you take a closer look.
The Huskers’ -17 turnover margin was brutal. That team should have won eight games last year. The good news is, Nebraska brings back just about everybody in Tony White’s defense that ranked top-15 last season. I think the Huskers’ quarterback play will be upgraded as well, as I believe former five-star Dylan Raiola will win that starter job as a true freshman. I think those turnovers will go way down from the quarterback position.
Because of that, I believe that when we get to November, Nebraska will be playing for a College Football Playoff berth. I think they are that good this year, and could be 7-0 heading to Columbus to play Ohio State in November depending on how that Week 2 game against Colorado goes. It’s realistic that the Huskers could be 8-1 heading into their final three regular season games — at USC, vs. Wisconsin at home and then at Iowa. At that point, they will be right in the thick of the 12-team playoff picture. So for me, Nebraska’s definition of success is, even when pulling the reins back a bit, nine wins and — depending on who they beat and when — knocking on the door of a CFP berth.
Successful season: Make a bowl game (nine wins)
I think the defending national champions are as hard a team to gauge as any when it comes to defining what success looks like in 2024. If you asked an ardent Michigan fan, nothing has changed — the Wolverines are going to beat Ohio State again, win the Big Ten again, make the College Football Playoff again and compete for a national title again. You know what? Fair enough, given how few outside Ann Arbor understood what was happening in 2021 and 2022 before Michigan got over the hump and won it all in 2023.
But now, Michigan has 18 new starters, a new head coach and two new coordinators, and is going to play three of the top-four teams in both the AP poll and my rankings — Texas, Oregon and, of course, Ohio State. Here’s why I’m going to pump the brakes at Michigan, and those inside Schembechler Hall will be the first ones to admit this — They are a developmental program. Jim Harbaugh rebuilt the program by taking players that might not have the stars, even though Michigan has done a nice job on the recruiting trail, they do not recruit at a top-five level.
New coach Sherrone Moore is going to lean on the exact same model that Harbaugh used to win the national title, which is get the right guys in his program and develop them into players that they feel like they can be physically dominant with. That’s what the Michigan blueprint is, which means the Wolverines generally have to be a veteran team to go out there and win. They still have a lot of talent at the top end this year, but I do not think that they have the depth that they had a year ago, which was a huge strength for them.
With all the distractions this offseason, including the NCAA investigations, along with Harbaugh’s departure and all the new faces in Ann Arbor, I’m going to say that a really good, successful season for Moore in his first year at the helm is reaching the playoff. And if Michigan is hosting a first-round game, I would not pick against the Wolverines in the Big House. But let’s be honest, the fans will probably be just fine if Michigan misses the playoff as long as the Wolverines beat Ohio State again.
Successful season: Reach the College Football Playoff
Sherrone Moore explains what it’s like to take over for a national champion
I believe only Ohio State and Georgia have an actual, justifiable case for a national-title-or-bust mentality. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in my preseason rankings because they’re not just talented, but they have veteran talent. It just smells so similar to what happened last year at Michigan, with all these guys returning, including several who could have easily gone to the NFL but chose not to. Michigan had this veteran team with great depth and a great culture and a purpose that was far greater than any individual player. When I visited Ohio State last spring, it felt very much like that.
I think transfer addition Will Howard will upgrade the Buckeyes’ quarterback play. I think play-calling will be upgraded, because Ryan Day has brought in his mentor, Chip Kelly, to run the Buckeyes’ offense, and Kelly famously knows how to run the football. That has been an inconsistent part of the Buckeyes for the past couple of years, but with Treyveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in the backfield and Kelly calling the shots, I expect Ohio State to be one of the best rushing teams in the country. Ohio State’s defense will also be outstanding. I think the Buckeyes will have the best defense in the country.
But even though I respect the argument, I don’t think you can just say championship-or-bust anymore in college football, because the sport is just too deep. This new playoff is going to be too difficult. I think that the highest level of expectation that I can give is just to go to the national championship game, because at that point, you’re giving yourself a chance.
One caveat for Ohio State — and it’s a big one — you cannot go to the playoff and even win a national championship and not beat Michigan, not this year. That would burn for Ohio State. My definition for Ohio State this year starts with beating Michigan and then giving themselves a chance by going to the national championship game.
Successful season: Reach CFP national championship game
Ryan Day speaks on veteran players returning & additions from the transfer portal
Everything we just covered about Ohio State can be said about Georgia. The Dawgs are a well-oiled machine under Kirby Smart at this point, year in and year out. The only thing between Georgia and a national title three-peat was a tight SEC title game loss to Alabama. If Smart had beaten his old boss in that game, he may very well have hoisted the CFP trophy again a month later, and we’d be sitting here talking about a Georgia four-peat.
The Dawgs are easily the best-recruiting program in the country, even though I don’t think that they have the veteran talent that Ohio State does, which is why I put the Buckeyes No. 1 in my preseason rankings. Plus, Georgia has a much tougher conference schedule before we even get to the playoff. The Dawgs play Clemson in Atlanta to open the year, then they’ve got three top-10 road games at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss, plus a home game against Tennessee. And you can easily pencil in another top-five opponent when Georgia reaches the SEC Championship Game again — or if it does, since that game now features the top two teams in the conference instead of division winners.
The good news for Georgia is, if anyone is built to go through that gauntlet, it’s this team that Smart has assembled via several top-ranked recruiting classes. They have a plethora of five-star athletes and expect to win every game, no matter how difficult their schedule is.
Successful season: Reach CFP national championship game
This is a very interesting one, because I believe no team was hurt more by the old four-team playoff format than Penn State. But I’m not gonna allow those fans to fall into the trap that qualifying for what is now a 12-team playoff is somehow a step forward. Had a 12-team playoff existed for the past eight years, Penn State would have qualified six times. But here’s the problem with that — their average playoff seeding would have been around 9.5. You can make the argument, then, that just going to the playoff under this new format means a team is still stagnant.
Are the Nittany Lions really any better this year if they finally reach the Playoff? The answer is no. This is the year Penn State fans have been pointing to — the Nittany Lions’ 2022 recruiting class of Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Abdul Carter is now the backbone of James Franklin’s roster. Those guys are supposed to be top-tier talents, and they are, and now innovative offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas is calling the shots on that side of the ball. I believe he will improve the offense dramatically, and I cannot wait to see that team in Week 1 when they face West Virginia on Big Noon Kickoff in Morgantown.
After that, Penn State’s schedule sets up favorably. The Nittany Lions’ hardest game is against Ohio State at home — they don’t have to play Oregon or Michigan in the Big Ten this year. A potential home game in Happy Valley in the first round of the College Football Playoff is not out of the question.
So what’s a successful season for Penn State? It’s a step forward. They have to beat that 9.5 average seeding and get into the top eight and reach the quarterfinals. I think they can host a first-round playoff game, which Penn State will instantly be favored to win in that stadium with that crowd, which I think is one of the best in college football.
Successful season: Reach CFP quarterfinals
James Franklin on adapting to the new-look Big Ten
Brent Venables has a tough schedule in his first year in the SEC. The Sooners get Tennessee and former national title-winning quarterback Josh Heupel at home in Norman, will likely enter the Red River Rivalry as underdogs again versus Texas, and have to face Ole Miss on the road. Then, Oklahoma’s last three games are at Mizzou, vs. Alabama at home and at LSU.
I think it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking, “Hey, the schedule is not going to set up for them. Eight or nine wins is probably good enough, because they will get some quality wins in order to get nine.” But then I stopped myself and said, “Hold on. I grew up as a Colorado fan watching the old Big Eight, and then I played at Colorado in the old Big 12. Oklahoma is Oklahoma. That’s a premium program.” Oklahoma has 50 conference championships, the most all-time. The Sooners have won 14 conference titles since 2000, the most of anyone in the power conferences.
I understand that the schedule is tough, but this is Oklahoma. I’ve been there. I’ve played there. This is a proud program. I’ve seen that team walk out of the tunnel in Norman while the jumbotron displays the words, “There’s only one Oklahoma.” This is the Oklahoma of Bud Wilkinson and Barry Switzer and Bob Stoops and even, as Sooner fans hate to admit, of Lincoln Riley. Admit it, Sooner fans — the reason you were so hurt when Riley went to USC is because Oklahoma is the place people leave for, not leave from. So I can’t step my expectations back from that. I think Oklahoma has to go to the College Football Playoff, because if they don’t, the Sooners are not in the top four of their conference, and if they are not, then by definition, that is a step back for this program.
Oklahoma has a lot going for it this year, too. They should continue to improve under Venables on defense. I like what the offense has done with quarterback Jackson Arnold and those wide receivers. Yes, the Sooners have a tough schedule, but if they go 3-3 in those games I mentioned, they finish 9-3 and well-positioned for a spot in the playoff.
Successful season: Reach College Football Playoff
Let’s not forget that Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius. Has the defense always come up short? Yes, that’s absolutely the case. But here is where his offenses at Oklahoma and USC have ranked in yards per play since he became a head coach in 2017 — first, first, first, 11th, sixth, third and third. You really think they’re going to take a step back because Caleb Williams is now playing for the Chicago Bears?
It doesn’t matter that Miller Moss is now the Trojans‘ quarterback. In fact, some around the program have said that they feel like the system will flourish. This is not a knock against Caleb Williams, but we all know that he liked to color outside the lines a little bit. He liked to play outside of the system. He would go rogue a little bit. Why? Because he was a marvelous talent — again, not a knock. Only some people can do that and still be successful, and he was one of them. But Moss is not going to do that, and everything in Riley’s track record points to that offense continuing to be very good.
Now, they have to be better on defense. I know that this is beating a dead horse for any of Lincoln Riley’s teams. But with D’Anton Lynn as their new defensive coordinator and players they’ve brought in on the defensive side in the transfer portal, I really believe that USC has a chance to have a very successful season.
This is an important year for USC. Like Texas and Oklahoma, USC is a proud program that likes to feel dominant in their own conference. And guess what? You’ve got to announce your presence in the Big Ten with authority. I don’t think 9-3 will do it for USC to get in the playoff this year. USC is starting at No. 15 in the country in the AP poll, and if the Trojans enter the regular season finale against Notre Dame with losses to LSU, Michigan and Penn State, they may not be ranked as an 8-3 team at that point.
I believe that if USC wants to make the playoff, the Trojans have to win nine games before they play Notre Dame. If USC does that, then it’s win and in against your rivals. But before then, the Trojans have to take care of business by avoiding any upsets and win one of these games — against LSU on a neutral site, at Michigan, or at home against Penn State. If they do that, then USC should be in good position to meet what I think should be the expectation for them.
Successful season: Reach College Football Playoff
The Longhorns are going to have that massive Week 2 game against Michigan, which I cannot wait to broadcast on “Big Noon Kickoff.” Texas will have the pressure on them because Michigan will still be in that honeymoon phase coming off a national title with so many changes. But Texas can’t roll in there when Michigan is replacing 18 starters with a third-year starter at quarterback in Quinn Ewers and lose, not after that bitterly disappointing playoff semifinal loss to Washington last year.
Unlike Michigan, Texas under Steve Sarkisian is in the model of Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State — they feel like they can play at the top every single year and then can go and reload. They don’t have to develop. That doesn’t mean Texas doesn’t develop well, it’s just that expectations don’t slide.
Speaking of which, no, Texas fans, making one four-team CFP does not mean you’re back. Being back means sustained success like what Mack Brown did in Austin where he had at least 10 wins per year for a decade. It means being at the top of the sport, at the top of your conference, year after year.
For me, Texas cannot take a step back from where it was a year ago, not when they have Ewers back as a Heisman Trophy favorite and a third-year starter. It’s CFP semifinals or bust for Texas. That’s the expectation. You’ve got to get to that point.
The only reason I didn’t raise my expectations all the way to where Georgia and Ohio State are is only because CJ Baxter and Christian Clark were injured in the preseason, bringing the Longhorns down to three scholarship running backs. Otherwise, I probably would have had them up there at the top. But regardless, a step back with a third-year starting quarterback is not what anyone will expect out of Sarkisian and what he’s built.
Successful season: Reach CFP semifinals
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him on X/Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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