Joel Klatt
College Football Analyst
As we await this highly-anticipated college football season, I want to preview it through another lens after sharing my preseason top 25 last week. We’ve got four power conferences now and the College Football Playoff expands from four to 12 teams. So, that got me thinking, what’s the biggest question in each conference this season?
We already know who we’re expecting to be the major national title contenders this year. But there are questions outside that top tier that could have a major impact on the championship picture.
So, let’s take a look at my biggest question surrounding each power conference in 2024.
Big Ten: Who is the biggest threat to Ohio State and Oregon to win the conference?
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I think we can all agree that Ohio State and Oregon are the favorites in the Big Ten. There’s a consensus that these two teams are in a tier of their own.
I’ve got three candidates who can threaten Ohio State and Oregon: Michigan, Penn State and USC. I know some Michigan fans might be saying to themselves, “What do you mean who’s the threat? We’re the defending national champions! Who’s the threat to a team that we just beat three times in a row?”
Michigan & Ohio State in Joel Klatt’s preseason top 10
I get it, and that’s why I have the Wolverines as the top threat to those teams. Michigan is going to be viewed as a bit of an underdog because of everyone it lost this offseason, which is a fair sentiment. Yet, if you’re someone in the building in Ann Arbor, you’re also wondering why myself and many others are thinking that way when Michigan retained its culture. That culture helped Michigan go 15-0 and develop into a title contender from within over the last three years.
So, Michigan believes it’s the biggest threat and the king of the hill of the Big Ten. Beyond the self-belief, Michigan can put you in a bind. It plays such a different style of football than most teams, and it might lean more into that this year because it doesn’t have a quarterback like J.J. McCarthy that it can lean on to efficiently throw the ball. The Wolverines are going to lean into, “Smash Ball,” as Sherrone Moore puts it. It’s going to be difficult for each of those teams to go up against Michigan’s “Smash Ball.” Their secret to success over the last three years has been their toughness at the line of scrimmage.
Michigan is going to be excellent on defense – very tough, very physical. You’re not going to be able to move them. I understand that Ohio State has a great secondary and edge rusher, but does that matter if Michigan can run it 55 times? Maybe not. For the last three years, Michigan has looked at Ohio State’s skill on the outside before challenging it to win a fistfight in a phone booth. Michigan has won the fight each time.
As everyone’s talking about Ohio State and Oregon, nothing has changed in Ann Arbor. When I was there for the spring game, I pointed out all the new people involved in key positions at Michigan to Donovan Edwards and he was like, “What do you mean, ‘new?’ Nothing’s new. Nothing’s changed. We are Michigan.”
I didn’t pick either Penn State or USC to be the biggest threat because I think a lot will need to go right for each of those teams. Penn State doesn’t play a style of football that scares Ohio State. They play a similar style and Ohio State can say, “We’ve got a better roster than you.” We saw that play out in the last two years. So, while I believe in Penn State and the schedule is set up nicely for them to make a run, I don’t view them as the threat that Michigan is for that reason.
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As for USC, I’m planting my flag that the Trojans will be better than most people believe this season. I think they’re going to be difficult for teams in the Big Ten with their offense. As their offense should remain the same, I believe their defense will be better. That’s what I expect, which makes them a threat – just not the biggest threat.
SEC: Who are the biggest threats to Georgia and Texas?
There’s a similar sentiment with the SEC as there is with the Big Ten. Georgia and Texas enter the season as the class of the conference. They, along with Ohio State and Oregon, will be ranked in everyone’s preseason top four. In a lot of ways, Georgia’s now the premier team in the country – two championships in the last three years, and Kirby Smart is the best coach in college football. We know who Georgia is at this point.
Steve Sarkisian has done an outstanding job building up Texas. He turned it from a program that was in disarray to a playoff team by the end of his third season. The big question to me about Texas is, will its defense be better after losing its two stud defensive tackles to the NFL?
Are Michigan and Alabama the biggest threats to the Big Ten and SEC powerhouses?
So, which team can be the threat to the two teams that enter the season in a class of their own in the SEC? Alabama. While I’ve got Ole Miss ranked ahead of Alabama in my preseason poll, the Crimson Tide believe they’re the threat because they’ve done it. Sure, it’s a new man leading the operation, but Georgia is still the one that has an Alabama problem. I know Bulldog fans don’t want to hear that, and maybe you can call it a “Nick Saban problem,” but there’s certainly a Tide problem. Alabama is never going to feel outmatched. Its roster is built to play at the highest level and its players have played at the highest level. Alabama just beat Georgia last year to make the playoff.
The Crimson Tide will not back down, and you can’t say that about the other two teams I considered for this spot: Ole Miss and Missouri. They’ll be very good, I love Missouri’s schedule and that both teams will have their quarterbacks returning for 2024. Lane Kiffin also did an incredible job in the offseason building Ole Miss’ roster, making it one of the elite rosters in college football.
But neither Ole Miss nor Missouri have proven they can do it against those teams. You can argue that Missouri beat Ohio State, but everyone understands that bowl game was different with the opt-outs the Buckeyes had. That’s a fair sentiment. It’s a strong win, but Missouri can’t parade around and say, “We’ve done it,” like Michigan or Alabama can. It’s tough to get over those hurdles.
Missouri and Ole Miss will probably be playoff teams this season. Are they legitimate threats to those top two? I’m not sure, because I haven’t seen it. Even if Alabama hasn’t done it yet with Kalen DeBoer, he just led Washington to a national title. So, he’s done it.
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Big 12: How many teams can actually win the conference?
The question is a bit different in the Big 12 because there aren’t the perceived juggernauts here that there are in the SEC or Big Ten.
That’s why the question is so simple. Once you pose it, sit back and start analyzing these programs, you can just start listing them off. It gets me a little bit giddy, because it’s going to be a great year. The Big 12 is going to eat itself alive. Luckily, we aren’t in the four-team playoff era anymore, so we will likely see the winner of the conference have a first-round bye. That’s incredible!
When we talk about competitive balance, this is probably the most competitive conference in the country. We don’t have the consensus at the top.
I love Utah, and it’s certainly a team that can win the conference. If you’ve listened to my podcast or read me on here, you’d know I love Utah between its style of play, head coach (sidenote: if any of my sons wanted to play for Kyle Whittingham, I’d sign up for it in a heartbeat) and it has veterans at key spots. The last two years the Utes had Cameron Rising at quarterback, they won the Pac-12. He’s in what feels like his 18th year in college, so he’ll probably play well. Tight end Brant Kuithe is back. The Utes’ defense is always tough. Utah will be the toughest place to play in the new Big 12.
After Utah, I think there are four other teams nipping at its heels: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Kansas. Kansas State is in the same vein as Utah. K-State won’t be intimidated by Utah’s style of football because it plays a physical brand of football. I’m excited to see Avery Johnson at quarterback, the Wildcats’ run game with the addition of Dylan Edwards and their always tough defense. If I had to root for something, it would be to see Kansas State battle Utah in the Big 12 title game because I love the styles of football each plays.
Avery Johnson puts on the jets for a 30-yard touchdown as Kansas State grabs the lead over Texas Tech
I love the styles that Oklahoma State, Arizona and Kansas play as well. Veteran talent is the most important thing in college football right now, and Oklahoma State has a lot of that. If it was just Ollie Gordon II and its offensive line, we’d have high expectations for Oklahoma State. But this team has more veteran talent beyond that, and the last time that was the case, Mike Gundy’s squad won the Big 12 in 2021. I won’t be shocked if it does it again.
Arizona might have the best quarterback-wide receiver duo in the country with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. I love Brent Brennan, Arizona’s new coach, but it’s going to be difficult in his first year. This team must have a chip on its shoulder after Jedd Fisch left and as it enters a conference that should be easier. Fifita might be the best quarterback in the new Big 12.
That brings me to Kansas. Jalon Daniels might also be the best quarterback in the conference. As I list the teams out, don’t you see a similarity between the Big 12 to last year’s Pac-12? Talented quarterbacks, veteran teams, good coaches and a balanced league. Kansas’ offense is dynamic with Daniels, and Lance Leipold is building something special. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Jayhawks are playing for a conference title.
I’ve got a couple of other dark horses, too: Colorado and Iowa State. The Buffaloes might have the best quarterback in the conference and their skill-position players are incredibly talented. They went from one win to four and really should have had a couple more in the first year of the Deion Sanders era. I think this is an eight- or nine-win team, which puts them in the conversation to win the conference in a league like this. If Shedeur Sanders can stay upright long enough to throw to Travis Hunter and some of those other talented players they’ve got on the outside, watch out, Colorado’s going to win a lot of games. If Colorado wins its first two games, it’s going to be 2023 again, and I might be driving the hype train. It rebuilt its offensive and defensive lines, so I think it has a chance.
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As for Iowa State, it’s going to have to develop players and go through peaks and valleys. Matt Campbell stayed there after Brock Purdy left and he’s developing again. Iowa State was one of the top-two defenses in the conference last year and returns many of those players. Iowa State is a tough place to play. It’s got 19 starters returning, so I’m bullish on Iowa State.
ACC: Has Clemson been passed?
This is different than the other three because I’m not sure if Clemson has gotten its due for what it did in that memorable six-year stretch. That stretch was as good as any six-year stretch in the history of the sport, but it happened in conjunction with the greatest 12-year stretch in the history of the sport. So, it was naturally overlooked. Clemson had six seasons where it reached No. 1 in the AP poll, which is the third-longest streak ever.
But Nick Saban ruined our view of what Clemson is right now. We think this is going to be commonplace for 15 straight years. That doesn’t happen in college football. Clemson should be the expectation and Alabama should be the anomaly.
Everyone hammers Dabo Swinney for not adapting, and probably rightly so. His anti-transfer portal approach is unsustainable if you want to have great success. So, this is what happens if you don’t learn from history – you’re doomed to repeat it. History is cyclical. What happened to other programs that only had great pockets in history and didn’t have the sustained success that Saban’s teams did? They didn’t adapt.
To answer the question that started this, yes, Clemson has been passed. That’s the natural evolution of the sport. We should’ve expected it. Now, we’ve got to look at the ACC for what it is: Florida State and Miami are the two top teams. Florida State and Miami have adapted and are modernized programs. They’ll pass Clemson this year, if they already haven’t.
Miami should be 11-1. Even if it goes 10-2, that should be an underachievement for the Hurricanes. Mario Cristobal is under an immense amount of pressure. The roster it has and the schedule it faces should make this team an 11-1 group if it plays to the level we expect from it. We haven’t seen that from Cristobal teams in the past, and he’s only 12-13 at Miami. I think that will change, though.
As for Florida State, we can’t argue with what Mike Norvell has done. He has developed and built his roster to a playoff contender in recent years.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him on X/Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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