Not all paths to the playoffs are created equal.
Sure, it’s the NFL and there’s no such thing as an easy game. But the fact remains, more than one third of the schedule consists of division games — and no two divisions are the same.
With the 2024 season in view, what does that hierarchy look like? Which is the strongest, and which might present the easiest path to the postseason? Let’s look into it.
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1. AFC North
The gold standard, in my humble opinion. This division produced three playoff teams in 2023, and the fourth-place Bengals still finished with a winning record despite losing Joe Burrow for half the season to a wrist injury. This group looks just as loaded in 2024. Burrow is back, and Lamar Jackson is now a two-time MVP. Cleveland boasts one of the best overall rosters in the league, headlined by reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. And even with quarterback uncertainty, the Steelers should expect to push for a playoff spot. It’s going to be a back-alley brawl to win the league’s toughest division.
2. NFC North
Having said all that nice stuff about the AFC North, the NFC counterpart has a great case for the top spot. I see two legitimate Super Bowl contenders here in Detroit and Green Bay, and it goes without saying that Caleb Williams has turned the Chicago Bears into must-see TV. The Vikings might look like an afterthought on the surface, but I think that’s premature. Minnesota’s got elite offensive talent and a feisty defense. If Sam Darnold can rise to the occasion, this really might be the deepest division in the league.
3. NFC West
I think this answer will surprise some people, but I like the depth in the NFC West. San Francisco obviously boasts one of the league’s best rosters, but don’t forget that this division has sent multiple teams to the playoffs in six straight seasons. The Rams were a surprisingly good wild-card team last year, and Seattle was right on their heels after making the postseason in 2022. Throw in the fact that I expect Arizona to be vastly improved with a fully healthy Kyler Murray back in the lineup, and this is a much deeper division than I think most would give it credit for.
4. AFC East
I admittedly don’t love the depth here, because my guess is that the Patriots are going to have their share of struggles. But even if that’s true, the rest of the AFC East more than makes up for it. The Bills are contenders as long as Josh Allen is their starter, and the Dolphins should once again be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. If Aaron Rodgers can bounce back from the Achilles injury, it’s easy to imagine three AFC East teams reaching the postseason.
5. AFC South
This has the most potential to age poorly, because there’s so much we don’t know. The Houston Texans look poised to join the league’s elite in C.J. Stroud’s second year, and Jacksonville has posted back-to-back winning records the past two years. But what about the other two teams? If Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are both stars, we might be talking about this as the league’s toughest division by Thanksgiving. If they’re not, this is looking like a pretty top-heavy group.
6. NFC East
This has felt like a division of haves and have-nots for almost a decade. Seven of the past eight division championships have been won by either Philadelphia or Dallas, and my guess is it’ll be eight of nine by the end of the season. That race between the Cowboys and Eagles promises to be entertaining, but it doesn’t make for a competitive division overall. Maybe Jayden Daniels can start to change that narrative for Washington, but it’s too early to say.
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7. NFC South
It’s the only division in football that seems to lack a real-deal contender. Yes, the Falcons look exciting heading into 2024, and the Buccaneers have won the division three years running. But it still feels like the NFC South is missing a truly elite team, and it’d be a bit of a surprise if more than one team from this division made the postseason.
8. AFC West
Interestingly, the worst division in the league features the best team. The Chiefs are the envy of the entire NFL, so naturally they’ve also dominated the AFC West to the tune of eight straight division titles. Behind them, though, the rest of this group seems to be in transition. Denver is starting over with a new quarterback — likely a rookie. The Raiders have a solid overall roster but no franchise quarterback to guide them. The Chargers have the opposite problem: a Pro Bowl quarterback, but a thin supporting cast around him. The Chiefs are great, but they just might be the division’s only relevant team in 2024.
David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.
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