Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge have been at the top of the sport for several years now, and they’re arguably better than ever at the plate in 2024. Both, in fact, are making serious runs at a triple crown (as is Marcell Ozuna).
But how much longer will Ohtani and Judge, despite being on the wrong side of 30, remain this productive?
The Guardians and Brewers are perhaps the two most surprising teams in MLB, and they will battle this weekend (Saturday on FOX at 7:15 p.m. ET). The Dodgers and Cardinals will also square off (Saturday on FOX at 7:15 p.m. ET) in what is a critical series for both teams.
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With the Dodgers’ division lead shrinking seemingly by the day and the Phillies still scuffling, it’s time to examine some of the other contenders in the National League.
Accordingly, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. What player would you select to build a franchise around for the next five years?
Kavner: It’s tempting to go with a younger player just entering his prime, like a Juan Soto or a Bobby Witt Jr., but I think it has to be Shohei Ohtani given the upside and possibilities. At 30 years old, coming off major elbow surgery, he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before. He could win an MVP trophy as only a DH this year, and, oh, that’s right, he might also be one of the better pitchers in baseball over the next few years if he can come back healthy.
Thosar: Aaron Judge. After watching him almost single-handedly lead the Yankees into the playoffs in years when he was fully healthy, it’s hard not to pick the American League’s current MVP front-runner as the answer here. This year, it seems like having another generational superstar in Juan Soto on his team has only taken Judge’s talents to another level, so building a franchise around Judge is as close to a no-brainer as it gets.
Alas, the tricky part of this question is “the next five years” aspect, because Judge is already 32 years old and it’s anybody’s guess how much longer he can sustain the run he’s been on, as well as stay healthy through his age-37 season. The double-edged sword for Judge is that we’ve also seen the Yankees completely collapse when he’s injured and not consistently in the lineup. In that regard, the 25-year-old Soto is a close second for this answer. But since the Padres didn’t accomplish everything they wanted when they had Soto, that takes some points away from the new Yankees right fielder and gives Judge the lead.
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2. Which Central division leader do you think is better positioned for a possible World Series run?
Thosar: The Cleveland Guardians. Look, they’ve been underestimated pretty much all year and have responded to that neglect by standing on business and continuing to churn out wins — tied for the most Ws in baseball, even. Something that flies under the radar with Cleveland, yet will be extremely important come October, is the team’s exceptional defense. The Guardians lead the majors with 78 defensive runs saved, a number that no other playoff contender is catching up to anytime soon. The Brewers, the other Central division leader in question, have 54 DRS in comparison.
A major reason Cleveland’s infield defense has stayed tight is because of second baseman Andrés Giménez, who leads MLB with 18 DRS, as well as shortstop Brayan Rocchio (11 DRS) among the top eight. That high-quality leather has allowed the pitching staff to feel more comfortable pitching to contact, too. At this point, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Guardians went on a World Series run, and yet it still will, which only further emphasizes how their dangerous, underrated quality could turn into something special.
Kavner: I’d be surprised if either of them get that far, but I like the Brewers’ chances better than the Guardians. Cleveland’s bullpen is far and away the best in baseball, but I don’t know who the Guardians can trust to start games outside of Tanner Bibee. They could end up really taxing their relievers in October.
The Brewers have their own questions in the rotation, and the Christian Yelich injury is devastating, but I trust their starting options and the depth of their offense a bit more. Jackson Chourio is leading the youth movement and developing quickly into the star many envisioned, and William Contreras, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins provide a solid floor for a lineup that’s better than people realize. Getting Devin Williams back is also huge.
3. Whose return is more critical to the Dodgers title prospects, Mookie Betts or Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
Kavner: As brutal as the Yamamoto injury is for the Dodgers, I still think the answer is Betts, who has the ability to impact a series in a multitude of ways at any given moment. Jack Flaherty should provide a little more stability to the depleted rotation, and you don’t have to squint too hard to envision this team still competing for a title if Yamamoto can’t come back (or return in his previous form).
It’s much harder to imagine the Dodgers accomplishing what they hope to without Betts, a player capable of sparking a team like few others in the sport. He was an MVP contender prior to injury, and his ability to carry a team when he’s going right puts him on a different level whether he’s playing on the dirt or in the grass. With Betts in the lineup, the Dodgers’ offense has the potential to overpower any opponent.
Thosar: Yamamoto. Sure, the Dodgers have the eighth-best rotation ERA (3.87) in the majors, but their 41 quality starts are so meager that they’re ranked in the bottom-third in the league. On the other hand, the Phillies — the team that the Dodgers very well could face in the National League Championship Series — have 61 quality starts with a deeper rotation that currently poses as the bigger threat in the postseason. Plus, L.A.’s pitching staff has amassed the fifth-most innings pitched in the majors, and that unit could certainly use some aid from Yamamoto to ensure arms stay fresher for October.
Regarding Betts’ critical return from injury, the Dodgers’ offense continues to be concerning beyond the Big 3. But I buy into the idea that pitching rules October and, without it, vacation just might come early for this Los Angeles superteam.
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4. Who between Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna do you think is most likely to win the triple crown this year? How would you rank them in regard to their chances?
Thosar: Judge. Even if he won’t publicly admit it, I think winning the triple crown means a lot to the Yankees slugger, so I’m expecting him to find yet another gear in the Yankees’ stretch run. Similar to the sense of inevitability that surrounded his chase for 62 home runs a couple of years ago, Judge is inching closer and closer to Bobby Witt Jr. in batting average, and the more this topic is talked about, the cutthroat competitor in Judge might just make that category even more interesting.
Plus, I think the tight AL East race will only further galvanize Judge to continue racking up hits and help the Yankees recapture the division crown. As far as rankings, after Judge, I think Ohtani has the best shot at the triple crown, followed by Ozuna.
Kavner: Ohtani will make it tough on Ozuna and vice-versa, and Judge has built such a sizable advantage in homers and RBIs in his league that he’s probably the answer here. However, there is one major factor to consider in his triple crown endeavor, and that is Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals sensation is hitting .349 entering Friday.
If Witt went hitless in his next 20 at-bats, he would still have a higher batting average than any qualified major-league hitter. (This is where it’s worth mentioning that Witt hasn’t gone more than three games without a hit this year, and has only gone more than two games without a hit one time). Still, I think Judge will probably end up the closest of the three to the triple crown. So, I’ll rank them Judge, Ohtani, Ozuna, whose impressive .298 batting average is a rather significant outlier compared to his past few seasons.
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5. Who’s the best team in the National League that isn’t currently leading a division?
Kavner: I’ll say the Padres, although it’s a toss-up for me between them and the D-backs, as they are the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break. I think either team would win the NL Central. I give San Diego the slight edge because of all the injuries Arizona is dealing with. It’s incredible the D-backs are still rolling like this with Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno down (and now MVP contender Ketel Marte banged up, too), and a testament to the depth they’ve built, but you have to wonder if they can keep it up with all those key players sidelined.
In San Diego, the Padres’ deadline adds have turned their bullpen into one of the best in baseball. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease has been arguably the best pitcher in the sport since the break, while Michael King has been exceptional and vital for a shorthanded rotation. Offensively, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts have started to get going, Jackson Merrill is a Rookie of the Year contender who seems to crave the big moment, Jurickson Profar is the bounce-back story of the year, and at some point Fernando Tatis Jr. will be added back to the mix. That’s a scary group.
Thosar: Hiss-hiss. The Snakes are alive and well, and not only do I think the surging Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL that isn’t currently leading a division, I think by the season’s end they just might take the NL West crown from the Dodgers, too. Coming off a sweep of the Rockies and a series win against the Phillies, the D-backs are 11-2 in August, showing they can take care of business against inferior teams (which is not always as easy in practice as it is on paper), all while defeating a top World Series contender, too.
The D-backs have a softer schedule the rest of this month, too, with matchups against the Rays, Marlins, and Mets on tap. As it is, Arizona is only two games behind the Dodgers for the division lead, so depending on how Los Angeles’ key players returning from injury actually fare, the Snakes could overtake their division rival during their three-game battle against the Dodgers on home turf at the end of this month. Since there’s ample time to prepare, I’d make sure your pantries are stocked with popcorn for that crucial Dodgers-Diamondbacks series.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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