The Red Sox won’t go away. The Astros can’t separate in the AL West. The Orioles and Yankees seem destined to go down to the wire in the AL East. The Phillies looked reinvigorated against the Dodgers.
So much has yet to be decided among the best teams, however, in the way of the standings. In another big weekend on FOX Saturday Baseball, Boston hosts Houston (4:10 p.m. on FS1), Tampa Bay hosts Baltimore (7:15 p.m. on FOX) and the Cubs and White square off at Guaranteed Rate Field (7:15 p.m. on FOX).
Accordingly, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar tackle these topics and more in this week’s roundtable.
1. The Red Sox lead MLB in OPS. Are they being slept on as title contenders?
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Kavner: Every team in the American League is flawed enough that it wouldn’t completely shock me to see the Red Sox get hot and make a surprise run, but I also wouldn’t count on that happening. At the start of the season, their pitching surprised everyone while their offense lagged behind. Now, the roles are reversed.
The Red Sox are absolutely mashing. Jarren Duran looks like a star, and not enough people are talking about Wilyer Abreu. Still, Brayan Bello has a 4.45 ERA over the past 30 days — and that’s the best mark of any Red Sox starting pitcher who has made at least three starts in that time. The bullpen has been even worse. If they would have done something more substantial either before the season or at the deadline, I might feel differently. As it stands, as terrific of a job as pitching coach Andrew Bailey and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow have done getting the most out of what they have, I don’t know that Boston has the pitching to go all the way.
Thosar: The Red Sox seem to be in a similar position as the Mets, in that before the season neither club was believed to have enough roster talent to compete for the playoffs, but now both teams are flipping the script. I like Boston’s chances of contending — but its path will be through the wild card, not the division title. The Red Sox’s offense has been refreshing (Jarren Duran is right behind Bobby Witt Jr. with the second-most hits in MLB) and the return of injured second baseman Vaughn Grissom should give them a bigger lift. The pitching staff is still concerning from an October perspective, but their bats and baserunning might be just enough to overcome any damage. The pieces are certainly all coming together for the Red Sox, and they should be taken seriously in these final months of the season.
2. What was your top takeaway from the Phillies–Dodgers series?
Thosar: The Phillies did an excellent job of silencing the growing concern that was following their recent play. They came into the Dodgers series having lost 13 of 18 games, including getting swept by the Yankees amid five consecutive series losses, only to come out of Los Angeles with the best record in the National League. So, my biggest takeaway is, if this was a preview of this year’s NLCS, the Phillies have shown they’re the team to beat, while the superteam Dodgers, though still without Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, look like they don’t stand a chance in a possible rematch. Both teams played hard, but the Phillies were, and are, a better ballclub.
Kavner: That the Phillies are still clearly the team to beat in the National League. Despite a skid that has lasted far longer than anyone would have anticipated, Philadelphia remains the most complete team in the sport. While I thought they could have made a splashier outfield signing at the deadline, there are fewer holes to poke in Philadelphia’s roster than any contender.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, face more immediate concerns. Their 8.5-game division lead from a couple of weeks ago has dwindled down to three. The Padres and D-backs are surging, while the Dodgers have a losing record since the start of July. Getting Mookie Betts back next week should provide a spark. So will the impending returns of Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, who are expected to start rehab assignments this weekend. But those additions won’t fix the shakiness of the bullpen or the uncertainty of the pitching staff as a whole.
3. The Yankees and Orioles have the same record. Do you put any stock in the gap in season run differential between them? (New York is 24 runs better and an MLB-best +113 through Thursday.)
Kavner: I don’t think it can be ignored entirely, and I do think it’s surprising the Yankees have scored more runs than the Orioles this year considering the volatility of the offense, but I don’t think the gap is so significant that it should change how anyone already feels about these teams. Any way you put it, they’re still the two best teams in the American League, and the Yankees’ Pythagorean win/loss suggesting they should be three wins better doesn’t change much in my eyes.
Will the players behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto continue to hit the way they have in the second half? Will the Yankees’ easy strength of schedule the rest of the way allow them to separate? Will deadline additions Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers do enough to stabilize Baltimore’s starting pitching? Those questions are more important to me with fewer than 50 games to go.
Thosar: At this point in the season, I’m not putting too much stock into the run differential gap. It seems like a major part of the Yankees’ huge run differential is the insane production from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, as well as the lights-out performances from pitcher Luis Gil in the first half. The dominance of that trio alone is not a good indicator of how the overall team will perform down the stretch and in the playoffs, particularly because we’re already seeing Gil exceed his career innings total and how that fatigue could impact him is not being factored into run differential.
The Yankees had excellent pitching in the first half, but run differential doesn’t indicate whether that stretch will continue, and the same logic can be applied to Baltimore. To further highlight why it matters less at this point in the year, the Dodgers finished with a +334 run differential in 2022, only to be bounced by the Padres in the NLDS.
4. Who or what would you say is the Astros‘ biggest X-factor to winning the AL West?
Thosar: I know we’re all impatiently anticipating Kyle Tucker’s return from injury as the possible boost for this Astros team, but Yordan Álvarez’s ability to flip the score with just one swing should be more impactful for Houston in its effort to win the division. When Air Yordan is locked in, he’s an opposing pitcher’s absolute nightmare because he can go down and connect on a changeup that’s low and away and park it for a home run. Álvarez eliminates a pitcher’s best weapon and rises in big moments, too. He entered Friday with home runs in back-to-back games, so the Astros should hope it’s the start of a terrific run at the plate for Álvarez, as well as the spark Tucker will look to provide in his eventual return.
Kavner: The health of Kyle Tucker. The addition of Yusei Kikuchi, as costly as it was, should help stabilize the rotation as it awaits the return of Justin Verlander, who should be starting a rehab assignment this weekend. Even shorthanded, though, Houston’s starting pitching has not been its problem. In the second half, the Astros’ rotation ranks in MLB’s top 10 in ERA, WHIP and batting average against. The top-heavy offense is another story.
The only team that has scored fewer runs than Houston since the All-Star break is a White Sox team that just lost 21 games in a row. Outside of Yordan Álvarez and Yainer Díaz, this is a group that just isn’t hitting. And with no help added at the deadline to fix the power outage, the Astros have no choice but to hope their regulars figure it out — or that Tucker can provide a spark.
5. Who’s the best pitcher in baseball?
Kavner: This year, it’s Tarik Skubal. Overall, though, I’d say it’s Zack Wheeler. The Phillies ace entered this season with an ERA under 3.00 in three of the past four seasons. He’s on pace to make it four of five this year while allowing fewer hits per nine innings than at any point in his 10-year career. While his walk rate is up a bit, and he’s suffered the occasional clunker, he’s still getting tons of chase, limiting hard contact and missing bats. And as good as he’s been in the regular season since joining the Phillies in 2020 — he has accumulated the most wins above replacement of any MLB pitcher in that time, despite only two All-Star appearances and no Cy Young Awards over that stretch — he’s also battle-tested when it matters most.
He has a 2.42 postseason ERA and is holding opponents to a .460 OPS in his playoff career. Last postseason, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his five appearances. Right now, there’s no one else I’d rather give the ball to in October.
Thosar: Tarik Skubal. He’s in line to win the triple crown, as he currently leads the American League in strikeouts, ERA and wins. The last of those is no small task while pitching for a Tigers team that’s fully out of playoff contention and was a seller at the trade deadline. Skubal is determined to take Detroit to new heights, and his competitive edge every five days is admirably consistent — reminiscent of Justin Verlander, who is the last pitcher to win the triple crown in a full season back in 2011, and he did it for the Tigers, too.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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